Saints at a crossroads (1 Viewer)

[Saint Spud]

Rookies succeed at a much, much higher level in their first year than they did in 2011 or whenever. Regardless of position. Peyton Manning started as a rookie and threw more interceptions than touchdowns. Nowadays most pedestrian QBs and even some garbage guys like Mitch Trubisky do much better than that. If any rookie QB came in and put up Peyton's stats from his rookie year today, they'd be unanimously considered an insta-bust.

The gap between high-level college football and the NFL has shrunk significantly. At every position, too, not just QB. The schemes in college are more advanced and the NFL is actually stealing more college concepts than vice-versa.

So regardless of how you feel about salary cap/Brees/Taysom/whatever, the game has definitely changed. Rookies contribute much earlier and more significantly than they used to.

I don't believe that the only way to win is to have a QB on a rookie deal. But I also don't believe that the only way to win is to have a top flight veteran QB (as it was 10-15 years ago). In today's NFL you can do it either way.

The problem is that next year and beyond, we will have neither a top flight veteran QB or a good QB on a cheap deal. And thus the rebuild begins. So enjoy 2020 ya'll, because it could be ugly for a bit after that.

Also - just a random anecdotal thought. The Spurs were "past their window" in 2010. They won a title in 2014.

Agree with all this.

It's not that it's impossible to win with either a QB or a bunch of young players on a rookie deal. It's that your margin for error drops a lot and you need a lot more luck wrt health and hitting on late-round picks for depth.

And your point about rebuilding after 2020 is why I'd like to see us take a swing at moving up for a young QB this year. As Underhill tweeted, having Love "redshirt" for a year behind Brees would be ideal. Or Herbert or Hurts. I'd trust SP to make the right evaluation there.

 

[No2DC]

Agree with all this.

It's not that it's impossible to win with either a QB or a bunch of young players on a rookie deal. It's that your margin for error drops a lot and you need a lot more luck wrt health and hitting on late-round picks for depth.

And your point about rebuilding after 2020 is why I'd like to see us take a swing at moving up for a young QB this year. As Underhill tweeted, having Love "redshirt" for a year behind Brees would be ideal. Or Herbert or Hurts. I'd trust SP to make the right evaluation there.

I understand your logic and I do think the team will invest in a QB high either this year or next. One last point though, the last 5-10 years has been skewed by the Pats.In terms of appearances, you have Ryan, Cam, Foles, Goff (rookie deal), Jimmy G, Mahomes (rookie deal).

 

[Wraith]

All teams that come close or make the dance have to pay their players. It’s inevitable but whether this year or next, I trust Loomis and Ireland to get this team back on track as soon as possible. The cap is going to hit us. Mickey the genius pushed it down the road as far as he can.

After the bagger days I can survive a down year or 2 to get the cap straight and I feel like my brothers and sisters around here can also. They will be back. It’s amazing to not only hope that but know it!

 

[dutar76]

Again, the game has changed a lot. The evidence looking at the past 8 years is pretty overwhelming.

That's an eternity in the NFL.

Yes, now days it's about star caliber players and efficiency. You have to have some elite players and lots of surrounding talent and quality depth. A few bad FA moves and a handful of draft busts can set you back in a huge way. And all the while you have to balance win-now with an eye on the future.

Being able to sustain that beyond 3 years is a challenge in this era. We will find out this season if we we can make it 4.

 

[jarrod74]

The Saints are about to become the victim of their own success, in a way. Yes, Mickey Loomis is one of the best in the business at manipulating the salary cap. But at some point, even the great Mr. Loomis can’t make every guaranteed dollar disappear. The Saints’ rise to the top of the NFC South since 2017 has also coincided with them drafting some very solid, maybe even elite, contributors.

Those players are about to get paid. Which means the Saints have two choices:

1. Lose some very good players and hope they can fill the voids via the draft.

2. Take advantage of the NFL’s great hack: a QB on a rookie deal.

Let’s assume the Patriots are the outlier here (as they are with everything). The Legion of Boom Seahawks were a great example of this. They won a Super Bowl with Russell Wilson on a rookie deal. It allowed them to pay their great defensive players to keep that core together.

But once Wilson’s rookie Deal ran out and he got (deservedly) paid, they couldn’t keep the core together. The players they did pay got older and the ones they tried to draft to replace them weren’t as effective. They’ve been pretty good since, but not nearly what they were.

The Broncos Super Bowl championship team had Peyton Manning on a relatively big deal (especially considering how much his play had fallen off), but they were fortunate to have Von Miller on a rookie contract, among others. Once they had to pay Miller and Osweiler didn’t turn out to be “the guy,” they’ve fallen off a cliff.

Philadelphia won a Super Bowl thanks to their starter being on a rookie deal. They were fortunate that a relatively inexpensive backup (Foles) filled in and led them to a title when he got hurt, but that doesn’t happen if they don’t have the cap flexibility to pay the core around their QBs.

And, of course, the Chiefs won with Mahomes on his rookie deal. He’s phenomenal, but they’re gonna have to pay him soon, too. And they’ll be at a similar crossroads.

That brings us to the Saints. We are in a similar spot as that Broncos team in that we have an aging QB on a big $ deal and no surefire successor on a rookie contract. Even if Taysom is “the guy,” he would have to get paid like “the guy” at some point soon.

I’m fascinated to see what SP decides to do. We know he loved Mahomes. There were plenty of rumors he loved Lamar Jackson. He’s known for awhile this crossroads was coming.

I don’t think we have a shot to trade up for Burrow, as much fun as the Pete thread has been. But given our current situation, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Payton make a jump for one of the QBs in a fairly strong class. It would allow us to transition from Brees to the rookie, and still pay some of our strong young players we’ve drafted.

Personally, I’d love to see Payton working with Jordan Love for a year. Or, we could see him draft potential successors to players we are going to lose if we pay Taysom. Regardless, it’s gonna be a fun few weeks.

What about Jaylen Hurts? I think he gonna be good .

 

[Colstonbaby]

The proverbial window is closing. The front office did everything they could to build a great team and I believe that they built a dynasty type team. From drafting, coaching changes, and free agency. Unfortunately, as you stated, it’s all about to come to an end and they have no SB title to show for it. At least we have three straight NFC South Championships and a ton of wins. It was a fun ride, but it’s the beginning of the end unless they duplicate the drafting that they did in 2017. I doubt that any team duplicates that quality of draft for a very long time. I was over the 2018 NFC championship robbery, but those feelings are reignited due to our current situation.

Nobody was more aware of the window closing than a certain NFL big shot...in NY...with pin striped pets.....

 

[Swimmer]

We had that same "asset" in 2014-2016. How'd that work out?

We've been able to thrive the last three years because of really, really good players on rookie deals. Those players are no longer going to be on rookie deals very soon.

In regards to changing the minds of much of the board, I'm afraid you are fighting a losing battle. I very much respect your insights. The last 3-years regular seasons have been thrilling. With a healthy Brees, and if Loomis and SP decide to push this team one more year, BayArea and LC showed how it can pretty well be done for 2020. But we will lose starters and depth. Enough to make us a non-playoff team? Probably not. Enough to make us a non-SB contender? Probably yes.

But if the FO does this by restructuring nearly every contract that could reduce cap, they are simply pushing the day of reckoning out one more year. As long as we have SP, Ireland and Loomis, I for one am not opposed to a rebuild. I'd take 2-3 years of 7-9 to then follow with 11-5, 13-3, 13-3 years with a young franchise QB and a real shot to win another SB.

I completely understand those who believe Loomis has magic. Many years it sure seems that way. But we have seen what happens when Loomis runs out of cap space for him to use his magic from 2014-2016. The Saints were the only team never above .500 for a single game during that period. The NFL parity system is really good, the best in all sports.

 

[Swimmer]

What about Jaylen Hurts? I think he gonna be good .

You and I and a few others are loners here. But if we could get him in the 3rd, I think he is going to surprise a lot of people. He has the mobile QB check-boxes down flush. He is uber-athletic and can create havoc with his scrambling and running. He knows how to win the biggest game from his years in college ball. Until this year when LSU took over as #1 in college team and is beginning it's decade long dynasty run, Hurts was QB for the #1 team in college. He consistently played well in big games like Watson. Plus his passing improved last year at Oklahoma. Hurts could be a bigger, stronger Watson.

And for those who say he can't do reads, these elite athletic mobile QBs create their reads differently that pocket passers. They buy time with their legs to allow receivers to get open.

btw: But only if we don't get Burrow. Burrow is the next Manning in the right system. In the wrong system, maybe the next Goff....

 

[TribuneUK]

In regards to changing the minds of much of the board, I'm afraid you are fighting a losing battle. I very much respect your insights. The last 3-years regular seasons have been thrilling. With a healthy Brees, and if Loomis and SP decide to push this team one more year, BayArea and LC showed how it can pretty well be done for 2020. But we will lose starters and depth. Enough to make us a non-playoff team? Probably not. Enough to make us a non-SB contender? Probably yes.

But if the FO does this by restructuring nearly every contract that could reduce cap, they are simply pushing the day of reckoning out one more year. As long as we have SP, Ireland and Loomis, I for one am not opposed to a rebuild. I'd take 2-3 years of 7-9 to then follow with 11-5, 13-3, 13-3 years with a young franchise QB and a real shot to win another SB.

I completely understand those who believe Loomis has magic. Many years it sure seems that way. But we have seen what happens when Loomis runs out of cap space for him to use his magic from 2014-2016. The Saints were the only team never above .500 for a single game during that period. The NFL parity system is really good, the best in all sports.

All teams identify windows where they have the best opportunity to win championships and then try to exploit them.

What they don't do is say, 'Hey guys, this is all possibly going to be over in a couple of years, so let's just give up now and trade away our best chess pieces. Better never to have tried than possibly win another trophy.'