Saints must figure out a way to draft Mac Jones (1 Viewer)

[NOFALCONS10]

Hey, I agree with you.

Fields in terms of arm talent is right up there with Lawrence as the best in the class. Anticipation, staring down receivers and locking in on his initial read is what’s going to need to be fixed. All the arm talent in the world though.

Looks like we can agree on something.


I actually think that he has a stronger arm than Lawrence.

I've haven't seen an example of Lawrence floating a ball 60+ feet in the air like Fields did vs Clemson.



What I think makes Lawrence a superior prospect at the moment is what you said though.

Lawrence is much more polished as a passer in reading defenses and has incredible feet and mechanics. All things that Fields needs to work on.

 

[NOFALCONS10]

Good article that's Mac Jones-related:

"NFL is drafting quarterbacks all wrong"

Completion percentage is the performance measurable that best translates from college to the NFL. The metric’s shortcomings — players can pad their completion percentage with short, safe passes, for instance — are well-known. But even in its raw form, it’s a useful predictive tool.

Its kissing cousin in the pantheon of stats that translate from college to the pros is average depth of target: Passers who throw short (or deep) in college tend to continue that pattern in the NFL. These two metrics can be combined 3 to create an expected completion percentage, which helps correct the deficiencies in raw completion percentage. If you give more credit to players who routinely complete deeper passes — and dock passers who dump off and check down more frequently — you can get a clearer picture of a player’s true accuracy and decision-making.




Another important adjustment is to account for the level of competition a player faced. ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating does this, and we’re doing it, too. For instance, passes in the Big Ten are completed at a lower rate than in the Big 12 and the Pac-12. We should boost players from conferences where it is tougher to complete a pass and ding players whose numbers are generated in conferences where passing is easier.


The test of a good metric is that it is stable over time (for example from college to the NFL) and that it correlates with something important or valuable. Completion percentage over expected is slightly more stable than other advanced metrics like QBR. CPOE is also the best predictor of NFL yards per attempt. Since yards per attempt correlates well with NFL wins, and winning is both important and valuable, we’ve found a solid metric. It should help us identify NFL prospects likely to be good — so long as they are drafted and see enough playing time to accumulate 100 or more passing attempts. 5










But before we stuff the metric into a model and start ranking this year’s quarterback prospects, it’s worth asking why CPOE in college might be a good measure of QB skill. One possible explanation is that it’s measuring not just accuracy but also the signal from other qualities that are crucial to pro success. The ability to consistently find the open receiver and complete a pass to him requires a quarterback first to read a defense and then to throw on time and on target. Throwing with anticipation and football IQ are both crucial to playing in the NFL at a high level, and they are likely both a part of the success signal in the metric.







CPOE is also probably capturing the ability to execute a system efficiently. A quarterback who understands how each piece of the offense complements the others and constrains the opposing defense is a huge asset for his team. The term “system QB” has a negative connotation in player evaluation circles that is probably unwarranted. If a quarterback is operating at a high level, he is inseparable from the system he’s being asked to run. It’s also likely the case that the mental and physical abilities to run any system efficiently are traits that translate — even if only imperfectly — to the pro game.







CPOE also measures accuracy, of course — which many believe is the most important trait a QB can posses. Some coaches believe accuracy is an innate skill and not something that can be taught once a player has reached college. Others believe that mechanical flaws can be corrected if other traits like arm strength are present. The Bills clearly hold this view or they wouldn’t have drafted Allen, a player with an incredibly live arm but who had a college completion rate 9.2 percentage points below expected. But regardless of whether accuracy can be taught at the NFL level, all evaluators acknowledge its importance.







With all this in mind, I built a simple logistic regression model that attempts to identify players who will go on to establish a career mark of at least 7.1 yards per attempt in the NFL — the league average from 2009 to 2018. The model took into account CPOE and six other metrics, all calculated for the player’s college career. 6 There are 49 quarterbacks who have entered the NFL since 2012 who have also attempted at least 100 passes — except for small-school QBs for whom advanced college data wasn’t available. I randomly split those players into two sets and used one set to build the model and the second set to test to see if the model is any better than random chance at identifying which prospects will go on to play productive NFL football. Though the model is relatively simple — and it would be wonderful if the sample size were larger — the results are promising. The model correctly identified many players who went on to have NFL success and many more who didn’t. The best estimate for its generalized accuracy is that it will correctly identify a QB prospect as a hit or a bust in around 74 percent of cases. 7 The table below shows the results of the model, labeled Predict, and includes players’ college stats.

The NFL Is Drafting Quarterbacks All Wrong

We built a model to predict which college QBs will see success in the pros.

www.google.com

 

[NOFALCONS10]

According to that CPOE metric listed above, Jones yards per attempt (#2 in 2020 11.9 with Zach Wilson right behind him at 10.99) combined with his all-time record completion % is another feather in his cap.

NCAA College Football FBS current individual Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

 

[NOFALCONS10]

He is the NFL's career adjusted yards per pass attempt leader board.

NFL Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt Career Leaders | Pro-Football-Reference.com

1. Patrick Mahomes (8.44), 2. Aaron Rodgers (8.33), 3. Deshaun Watson (8.18), 4. Russell Wilson (8.06), 5. Otto Graham (7.99),

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[NOFALCONS10]

Interestingly enough Kaleb Eleby led College football in both yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt in 2020, narrowly edging out Jones.

He was also 2nd in yards per completion.





Adjusted yards per attempt

Adjusted Passing Yards Per Attempt Single Season Leaders and Records | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Adjusted Passing Yards Per Attempt Single Season Leaders and Records

www.sports-reference.com

yards per attempt

NCAA College Football FBS current individual Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

Yards per completion

NCAA College Football FBS current individual Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

Eleby has always had the physical tools, and his power was on full display in the season opener against Akron when he threw a ball 55 yards in the air on a 68-yard Jaylen Hall touchdown catch.


“Arm strength-wise, I think he’s as good as I’ve ever had, and it does allow us to use the whole field, and that’s a big difference in a game, especially nowadays, where defenses are picking and choosing what they’re going to take away,” Lester said. “They know the easy throws… if you can have a run game and a quarterback that can throw it all over the field efficiently, it makes you really hard to stop.”

How WMU QB Kaleb Eleby put himself in elite company with Heisman Trophy hopefuls

Western Michigan's sophomore signal caller leads the nation in four statistical categories and has the Broncos at 3-0.

www.google.com

Eleby even had a 195 qb rating on 2020.

He is draft eligible this year as a redshirt soph and will be an interesting prospect to monitor.

 

[NOFALCONS10]

 

[Merl]

At this point you are either related or have a financial interest. This is now 6 straight posts pushing for Jones. BTW if any NFL scout or coach basis their decision to sign or draft a player based on fan message board evaluations they should be fired and black balled.

 

[NOFALCONS10]

At this point you are either related or have a financial interest. This is now 6 straight posts pushing for Jones. BTW if any NFL scout or coach basis their decision to sign or draft a player based on fan message board evaluations they should be fired and black balled.

What else should I post about in a thread about Mac Jones, almighty Saintsmaster?

Whoever said that anyone should base a front office decision on the rantings of a lowly message board poster?


Am I missing something?

 

[Merl]

What else should I post about in a thread about Mac Jones, almighty Saintsmaster?

Whoever said that anyone should base a front office decision on the rantings of a lowly message board poster?


Am I missing something?

1. How about at least waiting until someone replies to your post instead of pushing your narrative to make sure it stays at the top of the first page.

2. You sure seem to think so.

 

[Joodas Avila]

First of all, I see all the positive traits that Jones has. He’s pretty accurate and the stats that he puts up are very impressive. But my issue w/him is the underlined fact the he’s on the best college football team on the planet. He has NFL level talent at seemingly every position on both sides of the ball, w/1st RDers manning down the skill positions. Talent-wise, no other team in the nation is remotely close to Bama.

Translation: Jones is/was literally playing with real world Madden cheat codes, plural. I like Tua a lot, & im rooting for him, but he also falls into this category. Its hard to gauge how good someone is when his team is vastly superior to every single guy they lineup against. It’s not as easy as just the stat line when it comes to Jones in my opinion.

Plus there’s clearly something about Saban’s coaching & Bama’s offensive scheme that allows QBs utterly shine in their system. But, when they hit the pros, when everyone just as talented, if not more, they get exposed & become QB2s.

Im neither a hater, nor a fan of Jones. Due to the need at QB, i think he’s a Day2 guy who’ll prob be forced into the basement of the 1st RD. I personally hope we stay away from this QB class in the 1st RD, unless it’s Lance or Wilson. But, if we do, i hope its Kyle Trask at the back end of the 1st, or a high ceiling project like Ehlinger, Ian Book, or Brock Purdy on day 2/3.

 

[MLU]

Could be Drew Brees part Deux.

Deadly accurate.

NFL ready.

Great at screen passes, deep ball. Smart, quick decision making.

He's really good at standing behind an OL where he never gets pressured and throwing to wide open WRs just like Uncle Rico.

Don't watch Bama in 2020 and pretend that's real life.

 

[Stalwart385]

I'm not a self-proclaimed draft guru but I'd be happy if they draft Jones. Things are easy on him at Alabama but what he does do looks like it would fit our offense nicely. I'm seeing a quick decision maker and point guard type QB.

 

[Saint Kamara]

I'm not a self-proclaimed draft guru but I'd be happy if they draft Jones. Things are easy on him at Alabama but what he does do looks like it would fit our offense nicely. I'm seeing a quick decision maker and point guard type QB.

That's my point.

I'm not saying he's the best thing since sliced bread and that everyone should consider drafting him. I'm saying he's perfect for Payton and this offense.

 

[jboss]

I'm not a self-proclaimed draft guru but I'd be happy if they draft Jones. Things are easy on him at Alabama but what he does do looks like it would fit our offense nicely. I'm seeing a quick decision maker and point guard type QB.

That's my point.

I'm not saying he's the best thing since sliced bread and that everyone should consider drafting him. I'm saying he's perfect for Payton and this offense.

It's still up in the air, especially with the high number of QBs speculated to be first round picks this year, but it doesn't look likely he'll be there when we pick. But this organization is known for trading up and if we do trade up for Mac (or any other top QB prospects) I wouldn't be mad at all. Beacause that means they see something in that QB that he could be our franchise QB. I doubt it happens but that's the only first round trade up I wouldn't be upset with.

 

[Stalwart385]

It's still up in the air, especially with the high number of QBs speculated to be first round picks this year, but it doesn't look likely he'll be there when we pick. But this organization is known for trading up and if we do trade up for Mac (or any other top QB prospects) I wouldn't be mad at all. Beacause that means they see something in that QB that he could be our franchise QB. I doubt it happens but that's the only first round trade up I wouldn't be upset with.

I've seen him move up lately. The majority of places still have him as a late 1st or 2nd. I've even seen 3rd rounder. I'm sure the playoffs will have pushed up his value though. We'll see as things get further along.

If I had to guess he will still be in our trade-up range without sacrificing too much. Then it's a matter of the staff thinking he's worth it and finding someone willing to do the trade.