Article Saints/Steelers' playoff hopes buried by QB injuries? Not so fast! (1 Viewer)


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Oct 25, 2006
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Ahhhhhh.... Cynthia Frelund. Thank you!

New Orleans Saints (currently 1-1, in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South): Before Brees' injury, the Saints were slated to win the division by my model, reaching the playoffs in 62.7 percent of simulations. After Sunday's loss to the Rams, and projecting the Saints will be without Drew Breesuntil Week 10. they still project to win the South -- but only earn a postseason berth in 53.6 of season sims. Brees is worth 2.1 wins over the next six games, a challenging guantlet that includes road trips to Seattle and Chicago, as well as a home game against the Cowboys. With five divisional games after their Week 9 bye (and the whole division having the bulk of games against each other later in the season), the NFC South is unlikely to be decided until late this season and projects to yield only one playoff team, according to my model. Atlanta is the most likely divisional foe to pass the Saints, but the Falcons would probably have to win at least three games that they are not currently projected to win in order to do so. Matt Ryan and Co. have the best odds of making playoffs if they win three out of the following five games where they have the lowest win probability: at Texans, vs. Rams, vs. Seahawks and at least one of the matchups against the Saints (Brees is projected to be back for both).


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