Scary Info on Why the Season May Not Take Place - from a Claimed Insider (16 Viewers)

Swimmer

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For the sake of board sanity, I am going to say that I got this info from "Coach" Guido. Here's what Guido told me today of behind the scenes discussions between players and their players' union, and between the players union and the NFL/owners.

"The chance of having a full season is getting more remote and I will get to the biggest reasons last.

1) The recent trend of the virus in quickly spreading to young people, many completely healthy, is scaring the players and their families and their coaches
2) Recent scientific discoveries that the virus, even in healthy people who get the virus, causes long-term harm to organs is compounding players' fear. No one knows the extent of this damage, but now that it's known to spread among healthy young people and create potentially serious long-term health damage to the players has the players becoming quite uptight
3) (Here's where it gets really interesting). With all the attention on racial discrimination, the NFL is very sensitive to anything that would make the NFL appear insensitive to racial injustice, especially when over 70% of the players are men of color
4) Where this comes into play is that nearly 1 in 5 black people suffer from sickle-cell anemia. This is a genetic serious illness. If players with sickle cell contract the virus, they are at serious risk of serious injury if not even death. The NFL is frightened that some top black players with sickle-cell will get the virus and get sick. Then the NFL fears they will have a public relations nightmare on their hands with the extreme attention on racial injustice.
5) Yes, Latinos cause a lot of diabetes by our eating habits, however, Latinos are born with one of the highest racial percentages of Type 2 diabetes. Like sickle-cell anemia, diabetes is a serious underlying health condition. And once again, like black athletes with sickle cell, Latinos risk of serious long-term illness and death is high
6) These are active conservations going on behind the scenes about insurance. Lloyds is the biggest insurer of professional athletes. The players are all trying to get higher insurance levels, as well as the teams. Lloyds has jacked the price of this type insurance through the roof making it less or nearly unaffordable to many of the lower-paid players and really expensive for the teams
7) Many coaches are very worried about the conditioning of their players showing up for camp. They know that the great majority of players will not show up in the condition desired to begin training camp and coaches are really afraid for the scale and severity of injuries if they play this season
8) Teams are running multiple scenarios of fielding teams based on various levels of virus outbreaks on their teams. With the NFL Coronovirus rules in place, there are multiple scenarios where a team may not have the players or may simply choose to forfeit for lack of quality starters and backups. Behind the scenes, a couple of coaches said it could be like playing with scab players during strikes or lockouts. And they worry about their top players who have heavy incentive-based contracts who get the virus. It's not a performance issue, yet it would dramatically impact those players' total compensation if they get the virus. Coaches are worried about this and the impact of top players attitudes impacting team chemistry.
Now, this is my personal opinion. When I just think of being HC for a college-level team today, as HC, I would be terrified for my players and coaches. If I had a vote and was still an HC, I would vote against playing college ball this year. And I can tell you for a fact that many pro coaches have the same fears for their players as well as coaches for themselves and their families.

But the NFL is about huge money as we all know and they want to make more. And the players like their money also. So they may very well start the season. But as soon as one or more teams cannot field a quality product because of the lack of players, the season could get canceled after some games are played. Likely, the owners would use the term "Suspend," hoping a cure is found.
Guido was wearing a saints workout T today. He said that if the season gets canceled, we may have sadly seen Brees last season. My Austin sources were telling me that Brees was leaning pretty heavy towards retiring after last season.

Let's hope this does not play-out as Coach Guido fears from his sources and experience. And No, Guido did not coach the Mad Magazine coed softball team - lol




Insurance
 

gregh

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Here you go:


The US death toll from the novel coronavirus surpassed 100,000 last week, just four months after the first confirmed case in the country.

To put that into perspective, we looked at how many Americans typically died from several common causes of death between February and May — the months of the US coronavirus outbreak — over the last several years. The novel coronavirus has outpaced many of those causes..............


covid chart.jpg

thanks for those, id like to see the stats from previous years of the deaths compared to this year, if they are different..
 

No2DC

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I truly bow to you. That was a huge example. You showed something that is missing a lot these days, class. Imo, we need to feed off each other. Your example sets a tone that makes me want to up my petty ego games, and oh boy do I have a bunch of those. Thx so much for showing us all the way! - Dan
Nope, you're the man and everyone around here knows it. Stay safe friend, we have a lot to learn from each other. :cool:
 

gregh

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If you do not have this information by now, it's because, whether consciously or subconsciously, you have actively sought to not have it.

Also, for anyone that's not actively trying to detract and actually decides to dig into the numbers rather than just taking them at face value, they'd know that deaths lag behind cases by a good 2 to 4 weeks. People don't get the virus and then die immediately. There is a period of time that leads to those deaths, and the steady increase in numbers is set to start this week.

I'd also encourage anyone looking for more information, to dive deeper into the sudden spike in deaths classified as Pneumonia/Influenza. Deaths are clearly being buried in those categories, similarly to what Russia did. Here's a head start: https://saintsreport.com/threads/co...s-cases-133-972-us-deaths.431370/post-8095860
by that logic, should we not see a spike in deaths by now from memorial day? all i saw on the news is panic over everyone in boats on lakes everywhere partying it up..

if the death rate has gone down 10 weeks in a row, then the logic is flawed. i doubt we see a higher death rate from July 4th compared to MAy 31st,.
 

No2DC

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thanks for those, id like to see the stats from previous years of the deaths compared to this year, if they are different..
You haven't seen those? The average deaths per year is one of the ways that highlight Covid deaths.
source:https://www.businessinsider.com/cha...e-or-cancer-did-on-average-per-week-in-2018-1

COVID-19 is now killing more Americans weekly than heart disease or cancer did on average per week in 2018.
covid 19 causes of death

Business Insider/Olivia Reaney, data from COVID Tracking Project, CDC, NHTSA, Census Bureau
 

Saintcd

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i do have some in the family, when i go there i wear a mask. when they go out they wear a mask. the whole population doesnt need to be locked down, they agree..
I can definitely agree with the mask wearing. It’s that simple, wear a mask to protect the other person. They wear a mask to protect you. It works until it gets political and they do the cartman from South Park. “Whatever, I do what I want “.
 

bsmooth25

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There is a reasonable chance to believe that Sweden has endured potentially 20 times the number of cases actually being reported.

We did a study recently showing that here in the US we have potentially 10 fold the numbers of cases being reported. I think it's higher than that number, possibly 15-20 fold.

But let's go with 10 fold as a conservative low end number.

The death rate based on cases actually reported is 4.4%. If that was the end of the story, that would be a scary high number.

Using a 10 fold increase of probable people having been infected reduces the death rate to 0.44%.

It is widely reported that 40% of all deaths have been elderly in nursing homes. I would make the assertion that another 40% of deaths have been people over 65 (not in nursing homes) and people with underlying conditions (eg, diabetes).

Removing the most vulnerable out of the equation,, that would mean the death rate for otherwise younger and healthy people is somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.1%.

That's the typical death rate of the common flu.

I've been advocating for herd immunity for quite a while. Protect the vulnerable at all costs. The only issue is you have to do it at such a rate that you don't overwhelm the healthcare system.

I predict we'll have herd immunity in the US before we have a vaccine that works. We are at potentially 30-40 million people infected. We need to get to roughly 200 million. Still a ways to go. Current pace of reported infections over the last 7 days would take us another 10-12 months to get there. If we are actually at a 20 fold rate of infections rather than a 10 fold increase, then we will get there in about 5-6 months.
The problem with this scenario is that if you're assuming a 10 fold increase in cases that have not been diagnosed, one would also have to assume an increased number of COVID deaths that were not diagnosed. The hypothetical death rate in your example is missing this component.

The other issue is that Sweden was not a success story. Their top epidemiologist who pushed for the herd immunity admitted it was a mistake and they let too many people die. They didn't save their economy either.

It should never be an option to sentence a person, let alone thousands, to death out of perceived convenience/inconvenience. If we're justifying death for people of a certain age, why should it stop there? Might find other demographics that we can sacrifice too. Slippery slope.

Richest country in the world. Use your resources to find the best solutions money can buy that saves lives.
 
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KiwiSaint

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“4) Where this comes into play is that nearly 1 in 5 black people suffer from sickle-cell anemia. This is a genetic serious illness. If players with sickle cell contract the virus, they are at serious risk of serious injury if not even death. The NFL is frightened that some top black players with sickle-cell will get the virus and get sick. Then the NFL fears they will have a public relations nightmare on their hands with the extreme attention on racial injustice.“

Perhaps Coach Pedro should do a bit more research before espousing his views to the swimmer...as he has way overstated the prevalence of Sickle Cell Disease in the African American population. The incidence of the disease is 1 in 365, not 1 in 5.
 
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DoubleSaint

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I hope coach guidos son doesn’t find this thread or that printer is going to get fired up again.
 

Saintaholic

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The problem with this scenario is that if you're assuming a 10 fold increase in cases that have not been diagnosed, one would also have to assume an increased number of COVID deaths that were not diagnosed. The hypothetical death rate in your example is missing this component.

The other issue is that Sweden was not a success story. Their top epidemiologist who pushed for the herd immunity admitted it was a mistake and they let too many people die. They didn't save their economy either.

It should never be an option to sentence a person, let alone thousands, to death out of perceived convenience/inconvenience. If we're justifying death for people of a certain age, why should it stop there? Might find other demographics that we can sacrifice too. Slippery slope.

Richest country in the world. Use your resources to find the best solutions money can buy that saves lives.
Be careful - Apparently giving accurate data analysis or assessments that happen to contradict his conclusions equates to "not understanding anything about this," and you won't get an answer as to why that is.
 

gregh

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Doctors aren't the ones responsible for that, it's the hospital administrators and billing dept.
The MN senator who claimed such things is now under investigation by the State Board of Physicians. Also, it's been proven that many States (FL, AZ, TX and others) are minimizing covid deaths by not including them in pneumonia/flu death counts. Even if the pt started off with covid which eventually lead to a stroke or renal failure the State is not reporting that as a Covid death. So, the assertion that covid death can probably be divided in half or even by 10% is not based in fact and could be argued with documented facts that 130K is likely underreported deaths.
right it is the hospitals fault, as some have admitted they are getting more federal money when either ventilators were used or the patient's death is covid..
 

the_mc

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You haven't seen those? The average deaths per year is one of the ways that highlight Covid deaths.
source:https://www.businessinsider.com/cha...e-or-cancer-did-on-average-per-week-in-2018-1

COVID-19 is now killing more Americans weekly than heart disease or cancer did on average per week in 2018.
covid 19 causes of death

Business Insider/Olivia Reaney, data from COVID Tracking Project, CDC, NHTSA, Census Bureau
I love data...the problem with this data is the baselines for heart disease is from another year. Is there a chart that shows deaths attributed to other sources going down as COVID goes up from the SAME time period. That would be interesting to see. Is someone who would previously been classified heart disease or any other disease being attributed to COVID now.
 

Saintaholic

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by that logic, should we not see a spike in deaths by now from memorial day? all i saw on the news is panic over everyone in boats on lakes everywhere partying it up..

if the death rate has gone down 10 weeks in a row, then the logic is flawed. i doubt we see a higher death rate from July 4th compared to MAy 31st,.
In mid-May/early June, death rates started going down as a result of our successful social distancing in April/May. States have re-opened since then, and now, a month later, case numbers are starting to rise significantly as predicted by myself and many others, and in turn, we are about at the point where we are going to see the death rates start to go up again.

I am not exactly sure why people think we are somehow above science. This has happened everywhere around the globe, and unless Americans have some sort of different human DNA than I am unaware of, the same is going to happen to us, again.

Anyone looking at this stuff objectively can see this. This is not something you have to have an Epidemiology degree in or even be in the medical field to understand. It is simple math and analytics based on historical data with a small dose of common sense - if a virus occurs, and it results in slow deaths, deaths are going to lag behind case spikes.
 

Saintaholic

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I love data...the problem with this data is the baselines for heart disease is from another year. Is there a chart that shows deaths attributed to other sources going down as COVID goes up from the SAME time period. That would be interesting to see. Is someone who would previously been classified heart disease or any other disease being attributed to COVID now.
The data is there if you truly want to find it.

Causes of deaths per year categories don't spike very significantly for virtually any category, and in this particular case, the highest one of the past five years of recorded data was used.

Here is heart disease, per year:




Here is the link to the data, and I dropped it into a CSV file and did a pivot table: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/heart_disease_mortality/heart_disease.htm



And sure, these two particular categories (Heart Disease and Cancer) may currently be higher in total than COVID at the moment, but that's due to social distancing; before social distancing effects started coming through, COVID started trending higher than both on a per day basis, as illustrated in the previous poster's video. And, on top of that, what's different between COVID vs. heart disease or cancer is that the latter two are not contagious. They're something with minimal curing options that we will likely always have to just live with, COVID is not...hopefully.
 

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