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Coaching changes in the last two years have really changed the landscape in the SEC west. Now you have Petrino at Arkansas, Nutt at Ole Miss and Saban at Alabama to go along with Croom at Miss State, Tuberville at Auburn and Miles at LSU.
Its a murderers row of coaches. If these coaches were available today and a head coaching job opened at any major school in the country, including USC and Texas, any number of these six would be in the mix.
For the most part these caoches will cancel each other out on game day and the winner of the SEC west will be the team with the most talent. In this decade that has meant the LSU/Auburn game more often than not determines the conference winner. I think that will hold true in 2008 as well and with Auburn hosting LSU you have to make them the favorite.
Alabama is really just now recovering from the sanctions that zapped their talent level and will likely be contenders in the west either next year of soon thereafter. The West is really about haves and (relative)have nots. LSU, Auburn and Alabama all have, or in Alabama's case will have, top ten talent. Ole Miss, Arkansas and Miss State all have fine coaches but not enough talent to consistently contend for the West. I do not see that trend changing anytime soon. Most kids go in state and there isnt enough talent in Arkansas to compare to Louisiana and Alabama. Mississippi has talent, but what talent survives raids from LSU, Bama and Auburn gets divided between Ole Miss, Miss State and USM. I do not see that changing in the forseeable future.
What has changed is that the SEC West will be better top to bottom. Nutt is a great hire for Ole Miss and they will be tougher. Croom is doing well at State. Petrino will make Arkaknsas dangerous.
This will make it very difficult for a national champion to come out of the West again. The west champion will be much more likely to win with a 6-2 record or even a 5-3 record than the 7-1 or 8-0 you need to be a national champion. Yes, LSU did get to the big game with two losses but that was and will be a rarity.
In 2008 I see LSU and Auburn one and two, whovever wins the game between those two has a leg up. I see Bama as a spoiler but probably finishing third. Ole Miss, State and Arkansas will finish 4,5 and 6 in an order thats impossible to predict. I'll say Arkansas will have the toughest time losing their great two backs.
In 2009 and beyond its going to be LSU, Auburn and Bama taking turns winning the West save for an occasional run by one of the other three. Auburn might be the team hurt most by the coaching changes as Saban is doing a great job recruiting the state. Tuberville is a better game day coach than Saban, for my money, and that kind of evens out. Miles continues the trend of locking down Louisiana talent, which is considerable. As good as the other coaches are, I just dont see them overcoming the talent differential to consistently contend(I say consistently because if you get an Eli Manning or a Mcfadden in your program, one of these special guys can elevate the talent around them as we have seen happen).
2008 West:
Auburn
LSU
Alabama
Ole Miss
Miss State
Arkansas
Next week: The East.
Its a murderers row of coaches. If these coaches were available today and a head coaching job opened at any major school in the country, including USC and Texas, any number of these six would be in the mix.
For the most part these caoches will cancel each other out on game day and the winner of the SEC west will be the team with the most talent. In this decade that has meant the LSU/Auburn game more often than not determines the conference winner. I think that will hold true in 2008 as well and with Auburn hosting LSU you have to make them the favorite.
Alabama is really just now recovering from the sanctions that zapped their talent level and will likely be contenders in the west either next year of soon thereafter. The West is really about haves and (relative)have nots. LSU, Auburn and Alabama all have, or in Alabama's case will have, top ten talent. Ole Miss, Arkansas and Miss State all have fine coaches but not enough talent to consistently contend for the West. I do not see that trend changing anytime soon. Most kids go in state and there isnt enough talent in Arkansas to compare to Louisiana and Alabama. Mississippi has talent, but what talent survives raids from LSU, Bama and Auburn gets divided between Ole Miss, Miss State and USM. I do not see that changing in the forseeable future.
What has changed is that the SEC West will be better top to bottom. Nutt is a great hire for Ole Miss and they will be tougher. Croom is doing well at State. Petrino will make Arkaknsas dangerous.
This will make it very difficult for a national champion to come out of the West again. The west champion will be much more likely to win with a 6-2 record or even a 5-3 record than the 7-1 or 8-0 you need to be a national champion. Yes, LSU did get to the big game with two losses but that was and will be a rarity.
In 2008 I see LSU and Auburn one and two, whovever wins the game between those two has a leg up. I see Bama as a spoiler but probably finishing third. Ole Miss, State and Arkansas will finish 4,5 and 6 in an order thats impossible to predict. I'll say Arkansas will have the toughest time losing their great two backs.
In 2009 and beyond its going to be LSU, Auburn and Bama taking turns winning the West save for an occasional run by one of the other three. Auburn might be the team hurt most by the coaching changes as Saban is doing a great job recruiting the state. Tuberville is a better game day coach than Saban, for my money, and that kind of evens out. Miles continues the trend of locking down Louisiana talent, which is considerable. As good as the other coaches are, I just dont see them overcoming the talent differential to consistently contend(I say consistently because if you get an Eli Manning or a Mcfadden in your program, one of these special guys can elevate the talent around them as we have seen happen).
2008 West:
Auburn
LSU
Alabama
Ole Miss
Miss State
Arkansas
Next week: The East.