Semi Deep Dive Statistics 2018 vs Last Four Weeks (1 Viewer)

[CaliforniaSaintsFan825]

I put these together because I wanted to try to make sense of the statistical factors that have led to a few different perceptions about our QB situation this was done more for myself but felt I would share.

All the statistics here were pieces together from Pro Football Reference and Football Outsiders.

2018 Brees vs 2019 Bridgewater
Pass Comp Rate 74.44% vs 69.43%
WR Drop Rate 4.5% vs 8.28%
Yards per Comp 10.97 vs 9.99
Air Yards per Comp 5.95 vs 4.46

2018 Saints vs 2019 Saints
Offensive False Starts per Game .66 vs 1
Offensive Holding per Game 1 vs 2.33
Offensive Passing Interference per Game .05 vs 0
Pass as % of Offensive Plays 54% vs 59%
Average Yards per Carry 4.2 vs 4.2
Average Starting Field Position Own 31.5 vs Own 23
Average Drive Length 39.89 vs 33.31

2018 Saints vs Saints Last 4 Games
Points Allowed per Game 21.8 vs 14.3
Points Scored by Def + ST per Game .78 vs 3.5
Point Differential Avg 9.53 vs 5.5

When you play from a position of the lead or you have a stout defense that is keeping points off the board offensively you are going to just take less risks and with less risks you traditionally have less rewards. The rewards here being points.

Statistically speaking the offense is producing around 14 points less per game on average when you factor in the game's point differential last year versus this year and the relative points scored by the defense and special teams.

[7.5 pt per game fewer allowed + 2.72 more points per game scored = 10.22 points from Defense and Special Teams]
[Point differential between last year and the last four games fell by 3.93 points]
[10.22 + 3.93 = 14.15 points per game]

Looking at the quarterback play alone, I don't see a 14 point difference between Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater in the statistics a full year of Drew shows that his yards per attempt is only 10% better than Teddy's but our drives have fallen off by 20%.

Couple the drops with a significant increase in offensive penalty yards (nearly triple) and you have a fairly strong explanation for why we're not sustaining drives as long. If you aren't sustaining drives as long but, your starting with worse field position your going to score less points.

So my point in all this is more to say that the scoring issues we have right now potentially may not be solved regardless of whom is playing QB. We need our offense to stop putting itself in the hole as frequently as they do. We need our wide receivers to drop fewer catch-able passes. We need our return specialist to be less feast or famine and get us better field position on returnable kicks. When those three things happen and if we can continue to allow fewer points on defense like we have while scoring points on special teams and defense, we're going to be an unstoppable force regardless of who is playing QB.

 

[hank4]

I put these together because I wanted to try to make sense of the statistical factors that have led to a few different perceptions about our QB situation this was done more for myself but felt I would share.

All the statistics here were pieces together from Pro Football Reference and Football Outsiders.

2018 Brees vs 2019 Bridgewater
Pass Comp Rate 74.44% vs 69.43%
WR Drop Rate 4.5% vs 8.28%
Yards per Comp 10.97 vs 9.99
Air Yards per Comp 5.95 vs 4.46

2018 Saints vs 2019 Saints
Offensive False Starts per Game .66 vs 1
Offensive Holding per Game 1 vs 2.33
Offensive Passing Interference per Game .05 vs 0
Pass as % of Offensive Plays 54% vs 59%
Average Yards per Carry 4.2 vs 4.2
Average Starting Field Position Own 31.5 vs Own 23
Average Drive Length 39.89 vs 33.31

2018 Saints vs Saints Last 4 Games
Points Allowed per Game 21.8 vs 14.3
Points Scored by Def + ST per Game .78 vs 3.5
Point Differential Avg 9.53 vs 5.5

When you play from a position of the lead or you have a stout defense that is keeping points off the board offensively you are going to just take less risks and with less risks you traditionally have less rewards. The rewards here being points.

Statistically speaking the offense is producing around 14 points less per game on average when you factor in the game's point differential last year versus this year and the relative points scored by the defense and special teams.

[7.5 pt per game fewer allowed + 2.72 more points per game scored = 10.22 points from Defense and Special Teams]
[Point differential between last year and the last four games fell by 3.93 points]
[10.22 + 3.93 = 14.15 points per game]

Looking at the quarterback play alone, I don't see a 14 point difference between Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater in the statistics a full year of Drew shows that his yards per attempt is only 10% better than Teddy's but our drives have fallen off by 20%.

Couple the drops with a significant increase in offensive penalty yards (nearly triple) and you have a fairly strong explanation for why we're not sustaining drives as long. If you aren't sustaining drives as long but, your starting with worse field position your going to score less points.

So my point in all this is more to say that the scoring issues we have right now potentially may not be solved regardless of whom is playing QB. We need our offense to stop putting itself in the hole as frequently as they do. We need our wide receivers to drop fewer catch-able passes. We need our return specialist to be less feast or famine and get us better field position on returnable kicks. When those three things happen and if we can continue to allow fewer points on defense like we have while scoring points on special teams and defense, we're going to be an unstoppable force regardless of who is playing QB.

I think some of those drops are because Brees is much more accurate and throws a more catchable ball. It’s also somewhat of a subjective stat.

 

[CaliforniaSaintsFan825]

I agree however, assuming the stats come from the same individual, you can also assume their subjectivity is consistent.

 

[Mississippi Saints Fan]

Good stuff, although there is always more than meets the eye with stats. I'm assuming some of the penalties, like false starts, have come from adjusting to a new QB. Brees also gets the ball out quicker, so that explains why the holding penalties seem to have increased. Teddy is not as accurate as Brees either, so no surprise there are more drops. You can't put every drop on the receiver. Some have been off target, and maybe another aspect to the drops has been the change in delivery from QB to QB, which would explain the increase in drops even from Thomas at first.

 

[ItFan]

Teddy’s ball placement is very noticeably worse than Brees’ magnificent placement, hence the drops. Also, OL penalties could be due to longer time of release or worse chemistry with the QB.
But most of all, in 2018 we were OFTEN controlling games, either for a gameplanning choice or being up in the score. I mean we scored far less than we could. And we had the same players. This is the real depth and lenght of the distance between Brees and Teddy (and any other one). I guess I’m stating the opposite of the OP.

 

[David Robbins]

Great post, and appreciate the work. Still, I believe that all the penalties are do to the difference in cadence, and the fact that Drew handles setting up the O-line calls. TB doesn't do this. When he comes back, and lot of this will get cleaned up. Same can be said with the catchable balls. TB puts the ball in different spots than Drew. And, his balls are usually high and harder to catch. There was one game where TB was on and that was against Tampa, where he showed great touch on his balls. Hope that Teddy shows up on Sunday.

 

[CaliforniaSaintsFan825]

Good stuff, although there is always more than meets the eye with stats. I'm assuming some of the penalties, like false starts, have come from adjusting to a new QB. Brees also gets the ball out quicker, so that explains why the holding penalties seem to have increased. Teddy is not as accurate as Brees either, so no surprise there are more drops. You can't put every drop on the receiver. Some have been off target, and maybe another aspect to the drops has been the change in delivery from QB to QB, which would explain the increase in drops even from Thomas at first.

Holding the ball more, being blitzed more, and facing elite pass rushers all can contribute to that penalty count.

I can't find stats on average time to throw from snap.

As far as blitzes:
Drew was blitzed 9% of the time of his 489 attempts last year with a hurry rate of 5%.
Teddy has been blitzed 18% of his 157 attempts with a hurry rate of 12%.

This would imply that Teddy is getting blitzed twice as much as Drew saw last year and his Hurry rate in the face of those blitzes is 16% worse. So your observation on release time is most likely true though no idea how big of a difference it is. But blitzes are going to lead to more holding penalties as linemen struggle to keep more players at bay with the same number of blockers.

Speaking to Pass Rush
We didn't see a lot of Sacks from these players but maybe their presence lead to some blocking schemes that led to the penalties. Aaron Donald (#3), J.J. Watt (#4), and Calais Campbell (#5), Robert Quinn (#17), and Jadeveon Clwoney (#25) as ranked by PFF as pass rushers. One thing is for sure though six games with 3 of the top 5 pass rushers in the league is a touch sledding for our offensive line.

To be honest I think I'd take the penalties over the sacks any day of the week, about the same yardage loss, keep your down, and prevent the hit on your QB.

 

[SaintJ]

Great work by the OP on so many levels. Thanks.

 

[cue180]

“Teddy’s ball placement is very noticeably worse than Brees’ magnificent placement, hence the drops.”

just to take a rabbit trail....I wonder if this is why receivers/Te that have played with Brees and then go elsewhere are not as productive for their new team. —— I know I have said it before...Brees makes players better than they actually are.

 

[Swimmer]

Great work by the OP on so many levels. Thanks.

Perfectly said for many of us. Thanks very much!!!

 

[BiloxiSaint1]

I know I have said it before...Brees makes players better than they actually are.

This has been the rule. The exception to the rule being Mike Thomas who has shown over the last four weeks why he is a top WR in the league and deserving of his big contract.

 

[FGE413]

The offensive penalties have been bad this year. LAR, SEA, and DAL games saw several first downs called back for penalties.

I put these together because I wanted to try to make sense of the statistical factors that have led to a few different perceptions about our QB situation this was done more for myself but felt I would share.

All the statistics here were pieces together from Pro Football Reference and Football Outsiders.

2018 Brees vs 2019 Bridgewater
Pass Comp Rate 74.44% vs 69.43%
WR Drop Rate 4.5% vs 8.28%
Yards per Comp 10.97 vs 9.99
Air Yards per Comp 5.95 vs 4.46

2018 Saints vs 2019 Saints
Offensive False Starts per Game .66 vs 1
Offensive Holding per Game 1 vs 2.33
Offensive Passing Interference per Game .05 vs 0
Pass as % of Offensive Plays 54% vs 59%
Average Yards per Carry 4.2 vs 4.2
Average Starting Field Position Own 31.5 vs Own 23
Average Drive Length 39.89 vs 33.31

2018 Saints vs Saints Last 4 Games
Points Allowed per Game 21.8 vs 14.3
Points Scored by Def + ST per Game .78 vs 3.5
Point Differential Avg 9.53 vs 5.5

When you play from a position of the lead or you have a stout defense that is keeping points off the board offensively you are going to just take less risks and with less risks you traditionally have less rewards. The rewards here being points.

Statistically speaking the offense is producing around 14 points less per game on average when you factor in the game's point differential last year versus this year and the relative points scored by the defense and special teams.

[7.5 pt per game fewer allowed + 2.72 more points per game scored = 10.22 points from Defense and Special Teams]
[Point differential between last year and the last four games fell by 3.93 points]
[10.22 + 3.93 = 14.15 points per game]

Looking at the quarterback play alone, I don't see a 14 point difference between Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater in the statistics a full year of Drew shows that his yards per attempt is only 10% better than Teddy's but our drives have fallen off by 20%.

Couple the drops with a significant increase in offensive penalty yards (nearly triple) and you have a fairly strong explanation for why we're not sustaining drives as long. If you aren't sustaining drives as long but, your starting with worse field position your going to score less points.

So my point in all this is more to say that the scoring issues we have right now potentially may not be solved regardless of whom is playing QB. We need our offense to stop putting itself in the hole as frequently as they do. We need our wide receivers to drop fewer catch-able passes. We need our return specialist to be less feast or famine and get us better field position on returnable kicks. When those three things happen and if we can continue to allow fewer points on defense like we have while scoring points on special teams and defense, we're going to be an unstoppable force regardless of who is playing QB.

 

[Mississippi Saints Fan]

Holding the ball more, being blitzed more, and facing elite pass rushers all can contribute to that penalty count.

I can't find stats on average time to throw from snap.

As far as blitzes:
Drew was blitzed 9% of the time of his 489 attempts last year with a hurry rate of 5%.
Teddy has been blitzed 18% of his 157 attempts with a hurry rate of 12%.

This would imply that Teddy is getting blitzed twice as much as Drew saw last year and his Hurry rate in the face of those blitzes is 16% worse. So your observation on release time is most likely true though no idea how big of a difference it is. But blitzes are going to lead to more holding penalties as linemen struggle to keep more players at bay with the same number of blockers.

Speaking to Pass Rush
We didn't see a lot of Sacks from these players but maybe their presence lead to some blocking schemes that led to the penalties. Aaron Donald (#3), J.J. Watt (#4), and Calais Campbell (#5), Robert Quinn (#17), and Jadeveon Clwoney (#25) as ranked by PFF as pass rushers. One thing is for sure though six games with 3 of the top 5 pass rushers in the league is a touch sledding for our offensive line.

To be honest I think I'd take the penalties over the sacks any day of the week, about the same yardage loss, keep your down, and prevent the hit on your QB.

That's a good point. I didn't think about pressures. All of these factors certainly contribute to the overall picture. One key to that, too, is that defenses know that Brees will carve them up if they constantly send blitzes. When Brees returns, I'd expect the amount of blitzes called to decline a good bit.

 

[CaliforniaSaintsFan825]

“Teddy’s ball placement is very noticeably worse than Brees’ magnificent placement, hence the drops.”

just to take a rabbit trail....I wonder if this is why receivers/Te that have played with Brees and then go elsewhere are not as productive for their new team. —— I know I have said it before...Brees makes players better than they actually are.

I'll bite..

It's interesting to me because I got to watch Jimmy Graham and Aaron Rodgers this week, this is the first time I've watched Jimmy since he left. It was amazing to me how many dropped balls Graham had but then I realized something. Ball placement from Rodgers was totally different than where Brees threw to Jimmy. I was accustomed to seeing Brees throw Jimmy lay ups, high and outside throws that Jimmy was going to get or no one was. For NO Jimmy was amazing at snagging those balls. Two catches really stood out to me one in the red zone was high and outside and he came down with it and it was like wow there is the Jimmy I remember and another was mid field and it was thrown in front of Jimmy and low. Both catches Jimmy had to extend his arms to get the ball (like you'd expect from a basketball player).

Then you look at the passes that he dropped they were thrown into very tight windows right to Jimmy's numbers, locations where Jimmy had very little if any arm extension, they were put right on his body. Now you'd expect a receiver to catch those but, Jimmy is a converted basketball player, his skill set isn't the same as someone whose played football their entire life.

It wouldn't surprise me ball placement for Brees isn't nearly as much about putting the ball out of the reach of defenders as much as it is putting the ball where he knows a receiver is most likely to be able to catch the ball even if there was no defender present.

 

[ndcc]

Cali Saints Fan: Great digging to mine-out these stats. Good stuff!