Severe Weather 2023 (1 Viewer)

GrandAdmiral

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Rain is over here until tonight. What passed through here was pretty meh.
 

Eeyore

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We don't get many thunderstorms in January up here. It probably won't be anything like what you folks down south are getting so I'm going to let it sing me to sleep šŸ˜“
 
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For those in SELA, you're currently in a level 3 out of 5 severe weather outlook for tomorrow. Seems like it might be something to pay attention to.
 

efil4stnias

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For those in SELA, you're currently in a level 3 out of 5 severe weather outlook for tomorrow. Seems like it might be something to pay attention to.

lovely. over nite too. meh.
 

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Our weather service at work told us the wind shift offshore will be the most sudden/violent of the season. Looks to be occurring near 2AM. I'll be working when it hits. Fun fun
 

efil4stnias

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can someone post the forecast - i'm not seeing severe weather alerts on my apps


they wont issue those til tomorrow. By afternoon you will be getting into evening hours as the line supposed to come thru 12-2am.


( and what @Maxp talking about is offshore so over open water )
 

bclemms

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they wont issue those til tomorrow. By afternoon you will be getting into evening hours as the line supposed to come thru 12-2am.


( and what @Maxp talking about is offshore so over open water )
This is the Storm Prediction Center which the media builds it's forecast around.


day2probotlk_0700_torn.gif

day2probotlk_0700_wind.gif


In my circles, we all think the forecast is a bit on the aggressive side but the low track and dynamics behind the system are strong.
 
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efil4stnias

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This is the Storm Prediction Center which the media builds it's forecast around.


day2probotlk_0700_torn.gif

day2probotlk_0700_wind.gif


In my circles, we all think the forecast is a bit on the aggressive side but they low track and dynamics behind the system are strong.


Maybe just me, but i really feel like these last 18-24 months, that whole "storm prediction severity " has moved from like Tuscaloosa to Jackson area and shifted south to more New Iberia to lower Alabama ?

Especially the red areas- seem to be more southern now.
 

bclemms

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Maybe just me, but i really feel like these last 18-24 months, that whole "storm prediction severity " has moved from like Tuscaloosa to Jackson area and shifted south to more New Iberia to lower Alabama ?

Especially the red areas- seem to be more southern now.
This is a pretty typical setup for January. In peak winter it is very difficult to get sufficient moisture over the MS Valley. Plus the jet stream tends to sag south and the lows that would normally track over northern Arkansas and MO are tracking over southern Arkansas or north Louisiana which limits the warm moist gulf air from getting much farther than southern MS. This low pressure system is just more potent than usual.

HiRes models are indicating a fast moving squall line and wind shift. There will be some embedded rotation but if a storm fires just out in front will have a tornado risk and with the low level shear in place any tornado that forms has a chance to be strong and storm motions will be so fast that any tornado that touches down will travel a long distance in a short amount of time. Strong tornadoes and long track tornadoes are both rare south of I-12 but they do happen as we've seen the last 18 months.
 

efil4stnias

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This is a pretty typical setup for January. In peak winter it is very difficult to get sufficient moisture over the MS Valley. Plus the jet stream tends to sag south and the lows that would normally track over northern Arkansas and MO are tracking over southern Arkansas or north Louisiana which limits the warm moist gulf air from getting much farther than southern MS. This low pressure system is just more potent than usual.

HiRes models are indicating a fast moving squall line and wind shift. There will be some embedded rotation but if a storm fires just out in front will have a tornado risk and with the low level shear in place any tornado that forms has a chance to be strong and storm motions will be so fast that any tornado that touches down will travel a long distance in a short amount of time. Strong tornadoes and long track tornadoes are both rare south of I-12 but they do happen as we've seen the last 18 months.


so as we get into spring, that "warning area" will move back toward that MS/Bama area. We just early in the weather cycle? ( aka Jan vs April )
 

bclemms

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so as we get into spring, that "warning area" will move back toward that MS/Bama area. We just early in the weather cycle? ( aka Jan vs April )
Yes. Don't get me wrong, it can happen in January it's just more difficult. Usually central and northern MS/AL start to get going more consistent in late February. South La tends to start dealing with capping issues by April and everything goes north but they can get severe weather all the weather all the way into June. It's just more difficult as the season goes on.
 

gboudx

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Parts of SE Houston/Harris County were hit with a tornado about an hour ago.

A large and destructive tornado has impacted SE Harris County with numerous reports of heavy damage and collapsed structures in the Pasadena and Deer Park area to NW of Baytown. Significant damage has occurred and numerous roads and highways are blocked with debris. A significant emergency response is ongoingā€¦avoid the area.
 
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If anyone is interested in keeping up with things, Ryan Hall on Youtube is an excellent source. Currently live streaming.

 

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