Severe Weather alert for Tuesday across most of central US

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bclemms

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Everything appears to be setting up for a significant tornado outbreak for most of La, Ms, Ar, Tn, Al, Mi, iL, In, Oh, Ky, Fl and Ga.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has a slight risk issued for this area but I'm certain they will bump it up to a Moderate just after midnight and possibly go to High risk by Tuesday morning. For those of you that do not know, high risk days are rare and only happen a few times a year. Everything will be in place for the threat of significant tornadoes and extremely large hail and strong winds. Just a heads up to take extra precaution to the warnings in your area.

Tomorrow we could see a much smaller area of severe weather in Ar, Tn and Mi but it wont be nearly as widespread.


For you weather junkies. In the center of this area we are looking at 0-1 srh values between 200-300 m2/s2, mlcape values between 500-1500 j/kg, deep layer shear 60 knots, LCL heights of 800m, td's in the mid 60's and models tend to underestimate moisture return for the south this time of the year. All models are showing supercells as being the prime mode of storm developement except in the northern portion of the outlook area which could see one hell of a mcs. The one thing that could hold things back some is a low cloud deck which is common this time of the year but with highs forecasted in the upper 70's in much of the area we could see them burn off leading to even better instability. A decent cap will be in place for most of Tuesday which will allow explosive storm development and keep things more discreet than usual this time of the year.

Any other severe weather junkies out there?
 
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Jonesy77

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What's the prognosis for North Texas? We usually get pasted pretty bad with hail when those things come through. I assume I can expect the same?
 
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NE Tx is going to have a two day event. This afternoon storms should fire with the primary threat being hail and possible tornadoes. The window is pretty limited to late this evening when the lower level jet noses in. Here is the day 1 outlook.




Tomorrow it looks like the main threat in E Tx will be a squall line except for the far NE corner which could get some supercell developement.
 

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well now according to Laura Buchtel, you are wrong. We have a 20% for scattered showers Tuesday. ( even with your economic track record, I am going with Laura based soley on "asthetics" )
 
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What did Laura Buchtel say about Tuesday Night when the worst weather moves over SE La?

The worst should stay farther to your north but I certainly wouldn't rule out some severe weather. Southern La isn't looking as bad as Ms, Al, Tn and Ar.
 
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I don't care what the weather is going to be tomorrow. It's Mardi Gras. Rain or shine, TPS will be partying. Downtown.

:17:

TPS
 

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What did Laura Buchtel say about Tuesday Night when the worst weather moves over SE La?

The worst should stay farther to your north but I certainly wouldn't rule out some severe weather. Southern La isn't looking as bad as Ms, Al, Tn and Ar.


said the chance of rain increases...or something like that because like i stated before, she is "easy on da eyes" :)
 
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From SPC latest outlook
WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
AND SUCH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT AND EVOLVE MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK PARTICULARLY IN AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPES ARE AVAILABLE FROM TN SWD.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Hazardous weather outlook for central Ms
A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE...A HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND INTENSE WIND FIELDS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING HAIL...INTENSE WIND FIELDS WILL PRODUCE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS AND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN INTENSE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...Raymond+MS&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook
 

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What's the prognosis for North Texas? We usually get pasted pretty bad with hail when those things come through. I assume I can expect the same?
It's looking likely that we will have severe weather after midnight tonight into the morning tomorrow. It all depends on if the cap will be weakened enough to support thunderstorm development. The cap should be broken, but I've seen it before where the cap held strong and the thunderstorms developed further east.

However, tornadoes are a possibility with this event. If you happen to wake up and find yourself in a strange land surrounded by midget people, put on the ruby red straw hat and beat your head against the wall while saying, "there's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place like home". You may not wind up back in Texas, but it would be good entertainment for the midget people. :9:
 

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North Texas will have an unprecedented weather event---not really, but I'm going to keep throwing that out there. gboudx is probably the only one that knows what I am talking about by now anyway. At some point, I'll let it go and never bring it up again...just not today.
 
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