Severe Weather outbreak today and tomorrow (1 Viewer)

[bclemms]

Texas and Oklahoma will see the worst today with straight line winds, hail and tornadoes.

Tomorrow is looking like a very widespread and significant outbreak. Areas that will be affected include all or parts of Ar, La, Ms, Mo, Il, Ky, Tn, Tx, Ok, In, Al and some other areas to a lesser extent. Tomorrow's forecast is shaping up to have multiple storm modes but the supercell formation is likely with strong long lived tornadoes. I'm sure most of you in the areas that will be under the gun already know but just in case.....

Today's convective outlook
Storm Prediction Center Apr 9, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Tomorrow's convective outlook
Storm Prediction Center Apr 9, 2008 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

The models have been on this for a while and it is a classic severe weather setup.

 

[efil4stnias]

nice heads up...

my sis lives up in Fayetteville. Said they have been taking a pounding the last month or so. Its been mostly just south of them ( the major bad stuff ) but they lost a large oak a week ago to what they thought was a twister that just didnt touchdown.

 

[gboudx]

Update for NTX from a pro-met:

Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak for N TX today.

Threat for large long tracked violent tornadoes and extremely large hail.
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Discussion: <o></o>
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Potent storm system over the southern Rockies will eject into the southern plains today and tonight with surface low pressure developing and rapidly deepening over NW TX near Wichita Falls. Air mass over N TX is already moist and unstable and will destabilize further given several hours of heating. Dry line extends across W TX this morning with very moist air mass east of this feature. As surface low develops and deepens NW of N TX surface dry line will move eastward while upper trough ejects into TX spreading 80-100kts of mid level flow atop 50kt low level jet near the surface. Wind profiles show strong veering and increase with height suggesting a distinct tornado threat and hodographs are strongly curved by late afternoon. <o></o>
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Expect intense and rapid development along the dry line once the mid level cap is broken by mid to late afternoon. Storms will fire off in a supercell nature and given strong veering profiles and surface warm frontal boundary south of the Red River expect a long tracked cells capable of high end hail (baseball size) and tornadoes. Feel the tornado threat is greatest W of I-35 and N of I-20 where strongest instability will be found. Storms will gradually congeal into a squall or MCS and push across all of N TX by early Thursday morning with the tornado threat gradually transitioning into a large hail and damaging wind threat after midnight. <o></o>
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Residents across N TX should review their tornado safety plans and be prepared to enact these plans this afternoon and evening if needed. Remember to seek shelter on the lowest floor of your house or office away from windows in an interior room. Windows do NOT need to be opened as buildings are not air tight and will not explode from the rapid air pressure fall…but instead are damaged by the flying debris and wind. Never attempt to out run a tornado in a vehicle. Seek shelter in s strong building…if such shelter is not available find a low lying area such as a ditch and lay as flat as possible. Do NOT seek shelter under highway overpasses as tornado winds actually increase through such structures due to wind tunneling. <o></o>
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[FONT=&quot]Day 1 Severe Weahter Outlook: [/FONT][FONT=&quot]<o></o>[/FONT]
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[Jonesy77]

My office has an underground parking garage. I wonder if I should bring the dogs for a campout tonight.

 

[saint hdawg]

wow, another one? we just had one here last week in the DFW area.

 

[gboudx]

wow, another one? we just had one here last week in the DFW area.

New to NTX? This is springtime up here brah. I hate it.

 

[bclemms]

Hazardous weather outlook for DFW

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK AREA
IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF TORNADOES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
FORECAST AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

Hazardous Weather Outlook from Little Rock

A COLD FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND APPEARS
TO HAVE STALLED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVER RUN THIS BOUNDARY AND ONCE AGAIN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG THE BLACK...LOWER
WHITE...CACHE AND OUACHITA RIVERS.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND FINALLY DRAG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO A MOISTURE RICH AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. UNFORTUNATELY... TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. SOME OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH
THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED IN MOST AREAS...IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT
OF RAIN TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. IT APPEARS HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION.

NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING SAFETY RULES.

Shreveport, Jackson, St. Louis and other areas in the threat area have similar wording. I expect the wording to get even stronger as we get closer given the magnitude of this set up.

 

[bclemms]

The clouds are clearing along I-20 from Midland to Abilene. I would expect a tornado watch to be issued soon. Not sure if the SPC will decide to go ahead and put one big watch out that extends to the DFW metro or not but if I had to guess I think they will. It will probrably run about 50 miles on either side of I-20 from Midland to Dallas.

The dryline is well defined with dews in the teens just west of Odessa and 61 in Midland. 0-1 Helicity values are between 350-500 and 0-3 are between 500-700. I would expect to see some extremely violent tornadoes today.

 

[stunpals]

I was up all night 2 nights ago. Tornado sirens going off for 1hour straight it seemed. Wife and kid wiggin out. Ugh...

 

[Thorin]

The clouds are clearing along I-20 from Midland to Abilene. I would expect a tornado watch to be issued soon. Not sure if the SPC will decide to go ahead and put one big watch out that extends to the DFW metro or not but if I had to guess I think they will. It will probrably run about 50 miles on either side of I-20 from Midland to Dallas.

The dryline is well defined with 20 degree dews in El Paso and 61 in Midland. 0-1 Helicity values are between 350-500 and 0-3 are between 500-700. I would expect to see some extremely violent tornadoes today.

Thanks, please keep updating as you can.

 

[bclemms]

PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado watch issued from Midland to just on the west side of Dallas. Some storms are starting to fire.

 

[bclemms]

A couple tornado warnings out including an incredible looking cell just west of Abiliene.

 

[Joe OKC]

AS long as we don;t get tornados I am happy, that's why I haven;t been riding.. Trying to get all my stuff done before spring rains. Seed, fertilize, plant, build, etc....

I do remember back when from 2003 until 2007, we did not get "ONE" friggin drop of rain or snow... That was terrible.

Getting a good rain now... My guage is up to 1 1/2" and still coming down, with another 8 hours to go.

Joe

 

[gboudx]

DFW appears to be going under Tornado or Severe T-Storm Watch soon.

 

[gboudx]

DFW metro just added to Tornado Watch. The weather radio at my house must've just went nuts.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

TORNADO WATCH 179 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-085-097-113-119-121-139-147-161-181-213-217-223-231-251-
257-277-293-309-349-379-397-439-467-100400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0179.080409T2050Z-080410T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON COLLIN COOKE
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
ELLIS FANNIN FREESTONE
GRAYSON HENDERSON HILL
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN NAVARRO RAINS ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT