RebSaint
Lint smoker
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No, it's not one or the other, which is my point which your not understanding.You're acknowledging one of two explanations
1) Either he's operating from a position of relative strength. In which case the cease-fire signals a desire to enter the political process
2) Or he's operating from a position of relative weakness. Which considering how much effort he's put into maintaining a truce over the past year and how quickly and, yes, desperately he tried to stamp out violence this time, suggests his strength is continuing to degrade.
Make your choice. Honestly I don't care what you believe, but you're going to have a hard time figuring out how to spin this towards increased anarchy in Iraq as opposed to real progress in terms of security.
The only question I have is how it plays out for us (the US) personally.
Sadr isn't militarily that strong. But he does command a degree of political and social influcence among the Shia. He's not operating from relative political strength, nor is he very weak. There's an assumption here that he either is weak or strong. He's neither, but politically savvy. He's militarily weakened, but the longer he stays on the board, the more political capital he acquires. He has no interest in reconciliation, but he'll continue to play this cat and mouse game with the central government.
He doesn't have to be strong to undermine the central government--at least militarily. He has enough influence on the street. We've seen his game before. Go back to my statement about the endless cycle. Wage guerilla war, call a "truce," go back, re-arm, re-organize. If he were really interested in political power, he'd be working within the central gov't apparatus, but frankly he knows he can still play manipulate things through violence.
Welcome to the wonderful world of dyfunctional Iraqi democracy.
I don't have to spin things fortunately, but I never claimed there was "anarchy" in Iraq, I just pointed out that more violence isn't going to lead to political reconciliation or the oil law being passed.
Again, the object of the surge was ostensibly to create a climate conducive for the various ethnic groups to come together and pass a series of important laws
Number one of which, is the oil law. In sum, I think the recent spate of violence will further set back these political benchmarks.
If the Iraqis couldn't get their **** together during that time of relative peace, I seriously doubt they'll come together and pass these essential reforms so the U.S. can think about coming home.
Unfortunately, it seems that the system which is evolving will have daily violence and something resembling feudalism, which there's a constant military and political struggle, with violence as a part of it, between the central government and local factions/leaders.
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