Stats that matter IMO (1 Viewer)

This is one of the reasons I did it. I am sorry but ATL is having a run of good luck. See last season the Saints stats showed they were good and not a fluke. ATL is a fluke and will not win 1 playoff game. Plus some of the Falcon games I watched was influenced by the zebras. I seen the refs bail them out with some B.S. Also include other teams poor coaching. Mike Mc Carthy of the paks should of challenged that 4th down drop by butterfinger Gonzales but he didn't and 3 plays later 7 was on the board. If you flip that the Falcons are gonna be playing catch up all game. Its things like that is why the Falcons are where they are. They will fall. There season will last one week longer than the Panthers and instead of a top 10 draft pick will have to be in the back with us haha.

Nonsense. Compare these two teams in a hypothetical game:

Team One: 3 possessions. 24 plays. 160 yards. One three-and-out, two long drives. 14 points.

Team Two: 3 possessions. 11 plays. 130 yards. 10 points. Two big plays bring the points.

Who's better? Who's better according to per-play stats?

Team One: 6.6 yards per play, 0.58 points per play.
Team Two: 11.8 yards per play, 0.9 points per play.
Equal possessions, Team Two lost.

This is a little hyperbolic, but my point is that these stats go against a grind-it-out, boring, efficient offense. That's the name of Atlanta's game. They damn sure don't show somehow that Atlanta's not that good.

How else do you have the team with the best record in football showing such bad "stats"? :rolleyes:
 
That is BS. I have one and it has worked for years. Don't think people just get lucky to beat the spread. The handicappers who are consistently winning have a formula. You can't just go off your gut.

So you're posting from your yacht in the warm sunny islands?

I don't think anybody just gets lucky and beats the spread - I don't think anybody consistently beats the spread. Ever. Consistently. It's just not possible to do with any certainty.

If there were mathematical formulas to beat the spread just 51% of the time (or whatever it works out to cover the vig, 56% or whatever), there would be huge money plays coming in from sophisticated Wall St firms who are much more expert in number crunching than your Vegas bookmakers.

I mean, you'd be talking about free money essentially.

What's more, if there were some formula to predict outcomes consistently, it would precisely be those wizards on Wall St with their supercomputers who figured it out, not some guy on the Saints forum.

Sure, some random dude might be able to figure out some arbitrage a few times a year where Vegas' spread is off from trying to appeal to the most people. You can slip in a smart bet or two, usually on the Cowboys game or some other large market team that gets inflated action. But that is a far cry from having a formula that spits out winners consistently enough to make it profitable.
 
well i'll go ahead and let y'all know this particular game (saints v. rams)... the saints, on a neutral field, are about 7 points (6.8) better than the rams... the tough part is in adding the hfa... it varies by team... the standard is a field goal... adding that, the saints are about (9.8) 10 points better... bet this game at your own risk

fwiw, vegas' "early" line is pretty much what they actually think... after that, they could care less - they simply try to balance out the bets and take the vig

i'll go ahead and toss out the atl v. panthers, make your own decision... atl is about 4 (4.02) better on a neutral field
 
So you're posting from your yacht in the warm sunny islands?

I don't think anybody just gets lucky and beats the spread - I don't think anybody consistently beats the spread. Ever. Consistently. It's just not possible to do with any certainty.

If there were mathematical formulas to beat the spread just 51% of the time (or whatever it works out to cover the vig, 56% or whatever), there would be huge money plays coming in from sophisticated Wall St firms who are much more expert in number crunching than your Vegas bookmakers.

I mean, you'd be talking about free money essentially.

What's more, if there were some formula to predict outcomes consistently, it would precisely be those wizards on Wall St with their supercomputers who figured it out, not some guy on the Saints forum.

Sure, some random dude might be able to figure out some arbitrage a few times a year where Vegas' spread is off from trying to appeal to the most people. You can slip in a smart bet or two, usually on the Cowboys game or some other large market team that gets inflated action. But that is a far cry from having a formula that spits out winners consistently enough to make it profitable.

I am 100% positive there are formulas that beat the spread. No I dont have a yacht. I know of a pro handicapper that is consistently winning in NFL, NBA, MLB nearly every year. There is no way he has time to watch every single game to monitor how a certain team plays vs another team. He has formulas that work week in and week out especially in the NFL.

I was given a formula that is 59% this year and has been over 55% for 10 years running. I dont have tons of money to throw on the games. This year I didnt wager a cent. I am still working out kinks in my spreadsheet to keep the updates minimal.

There are plenty of guys that use a system to beat the spread. That is the only way to do it consistently without being lucky. You could beat it this year by throwing darts but that will only last for a year. To do it year in and year out you have to use a formula.
 
CHFF says yds per pass attempt is most telling stat.
 
This is one of the reasons I did it. I am sorry but ATL is having a run of good luck. See last season the Saints stats showed they were good and not a fluke. ATL is a fluke and will not win 1 playoff game. Plus some of the Falcon games I watched was influenced by the zebras. I seen the refs bail them out with some B.S. Also include other teams poor coaching. Mike Mc Carthy of the paks should of challenged that 4th down drop by butterfinger Gonzales but he didn't and 3 plays later 7 was on the board. If you flip that the Falcons are gonna be playing catch up all game. Its things like that is why the Falcons are where they are. They will fall. There season will last one week longer than the Panthers and instead of a top 10 draft pick will have to be in the back with us haha.

I'm sorry, but how do you present a formula to mathematically predict winners, yet you explain the success of a team as luck? Seems to me you've disproven your entire premise. The only stat that matters is the won-loss record. Yards are the most overrated stat in football.
 

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