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Swimmer
Medsamust Saint Fan
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Wow - He's blown away my record for Red Thumbs in a post. You are on a roll. Post some more threads!
Still struggling with the AK trade. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starterCharlieDoggs
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- #122
marccooper
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Long before the draft, I posted messages embracing the strategy of trading down and also acquiring future draft picks, and drafting defense. Other forum members advocated trading up, drafting offense, and being willing to deal 2018 picks to get the tools we need to fix our offense. We argued about the two strategies before the draft took place. Then the team did what the latter group wanted, and the opposite of what I wanted, so I was disappointed. Had it gone the other way, I would be the loyalist and you would be the negative one, complaining about how we failed to address OT and RB and were afraid to move up and deal 2018 picks.
I am contributing to this forum. While the whole narrative about low sacks not being a problem because we have a high number of QB hits was being spread, I searched for other statistics that could settle the tie. Had I found that we were also top ranked in QB hurries, which would have been positive, I would have posted that. Unfortunately I found that we were near the bottom of the league in QB hurries, so I posted that. Its not my fault that reality can sometimes be negative. I asked for others to find stats to settle the conflict or explain the discrepancy and instead some replies said lets stop talking about this problem.
I also sought to analyze our trade of future picks by looking at a value charts and seeing how much more the value of next years pick we gave up was, assuming it comes in the middle of the round which is fair given three consecutive 7-9 seasons that all began with high hopes. I hoped to find we only paid an additional 15% in value, in line with the high end of interest rates a corporation might pay for a 1 year loan. Unfortunately I found we paid 63% assuming the second round pick we dealt ends up being mid round. I did not want to find that, I just did.
I am a long time supporter of the Saints, I just want us to get more modern and seek value like I see teams like the Patriots doing, always trading back and stockpiling picks even though their starting QB is no spring chicken either. I want us to do better and I am ready to applaud it when we do. We trade up and trade future picks and lose total chart value. We justify it by saying we had higher grades on the players, which any team can always say, and is challenged by every team in between passing on that player. Since no two teams boards will be exactly alike, there will always be players in a given round you had graded for the previous round, so when you give up next years second round pick, you must assume that next year, somebody you had graded in the first round will be available in that second round.
I liked the Lattimore pick, I am positive on it. The injury is a concern, but I felt that could be addressed by balancing with healthier picks later in the draft. I was fine with the Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks trades and believe I defended them, if not on this forum then to friends. I was happy we got rid of Vitt etc. I laughed and said it was a disaster when the Texans traded their 2018 1st rounder to move up, knowing their team depends on a few injury prone stars and that pick could be very high. I did not, at the time, know we would do the same sort of thing the next day. I was supportive of possible moves to aquire Malcom Butler etc that others trashed, those moves just did not turn out to happen. I am very negative about picks 32 and on in the draft because we did the exactly opposite of everything I had a long history of supporting.
I am contributing to this forum. While the whole narrative about low sacks not being a problem because we have a high number of QB hits was being spread, I searched for other statistics that could settle the tie. Had I found that we were also top ranked in QB hurries, which would have been positive, I would have posted that. Unfortunately I found that we were near the bottom of the league in QB hurries, so I posted that. Its not my fault that reality can sometimes be negative. I asked for others to find stats to settle the conflict or explain the discrepancy and instead some replies said lets stop talking about this problem.
I also sought to analyze our trade of future picks by looking at a value charts and seeing how much more the value of next years pick we gave up was, assuming it comes in the middle of the round which is fair given three consecutive 7-9 seasons that all began with high hopes. I hoped to find we only paid an additional 15% in value, in line with the high end of interest rates a corporation might pay for a 1 year loan. Unfortunately I found we paid 63% assuming the second round pick we dealt ends up being mid round. I did not want to find that, I just did.
I am a long time supporter of the Saints, I just want us to get more modern and seek value like I see teams like the Patriots doing, always trading back and stockpiling picks even though their starting QB is no spring chicken either. I want us to do better and I am ready to applaud it when we do. We trade up and trade future picks and lose total chart value. We justify it by saying we had higher grades on the players, which any team can always say, and is challenged by every team in between passing on that player. Since no two teams boards will be exactly alike, there will always be players in a given round you had graded for the previous round, so when you give up next years second round pick, you must assume that next year, somebody you had graded in the first round will be available in that second round.
I liked the Lattimore pick, I am positive on it. The injury is a concern, but I felt that could be addressed by balancing with healthier picks later in the draft. I was fine with the Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks trades and believe I defended them, if not on this forum then to friends. I was happy we got rid of Vitt etc. I laughed and said it was a disaster when the Texans traded their 2018 1st rounder to move up, knowing their team depends on a few injury prone stars and that pick could be very high. I did not, at the time, know we would do the same sort of thing the next day. I was supportive of possible moves to aquire Malcom Butler etc that others trashed, those moves just did not turn out to happen. I am very negative about picks 32 and on in the draft because we did the exactly opposite of everything I had a long history of supporting.
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He sure does seem to digress an awful lot. Like in one of three posts, he's saying "But I digress..."
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- #124
marccooper
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Kamara is not a 3rd string back so much as a 3rd down back with the potential to perhaps be an every down back that is unknown given his limited college usage. I hope he is good but did not see 'joker' as a need worth trading future high picks for.
My issues with trading up for him are as follows:
1. We have competent 1st and 2nd round running backs, and he is not going to be our 4th and inches guy, so for the moment he only contributes on 1 down.
2. Running back is not the most expensive or difficult position to address in Free Agency, its relatively cheap, so its questionable to use a draft luxury like trading future high picks to address that position. Running backs have unpredictable and often short careers.
3. If he proves to be only a 3rd down back for his career and never achieves an every down role, that is a particularly cheap position to fill in free agency or trade. 3rd down backs rarely get big contracts and are frequently available in trade, we traded two of them in Bush and Sproles. So we gave a premium pick for a non-premium position.
4. Justifying an expensive trade by assigning a 2nd round grade to a 3rd round pick is questionable. Every other team passed on him in the 2nd round. Maybe they felt he was an amazing talent, but factored in that running back, especially 3rd down back, is a much easier position to address in other ways compared to DE or LB, so a less talented DE was move valuable to them. Also, even if he was a 2nd round talent, the nature of draft boards assures every team will always have someone they graded a round earlier available at their pick, because all teams have different grades. There would likely have been someone we graded for the 1st round available for our 2nd round pick in 2018.
5. Future draft picks are like insurance. You hope to not get sick, but you still carry health insurance. We hope to make a playoff run this year, but if we dont, our insurance is that we will get high draft picks. I don't like cutting the policy.
6. When we traded up for Ingram it did not work out great.
7. It made 2 of our first 3 picks offense, when we know we need to focus on defense. I feel that if the players you need are not there at a given pick, the best player available is the two players at positions you that you can get by trading back, or not trading up.
My issues with trading up for him are as follows:
1. We have competent 1st and 2nd round running backs, and he is not going to be our 4th and inches guy, so for the moment he only contributes on 1 down.
2. Running back is not the most expensive or difficult position to address in Free Agency, its relatively cheap, so its questionable to use a draft luxury like trading future high picks to address that position. Running backs have unpredictable and often short careers.
3. If he proves to be only a 3rd down back for his career and never achieves an every down role, that is a particularly cheap position to fill in free agency or trade. 3rd down backs rarely get big contracts and are frequently available in trade, we traded two of them in Bush and Sproles. So we gave a premium pick for a non-premium position.
4. Justifying an expensive trade by assigning a 2nd round grade to a 3rd round pick is questionable. Every other team passed on him in the 2nd round. Maybe they felt he was an amazing talent, but factored in that running back, especially 3rd down back, is a much easier position to address in other ways compared to DE or LB, so a less talented DE was move valuable to them. Also, even if he was a 2nd round talent, the nature of draft boards assures every team will always have someone they graded a round earlier available at their pick, because all teams have different grades. There would likely have been someone we graded for the 1st round available for our 2nd round pick in 2018.
5. Future draft picks are like insurance. You hope to not get sick, but you still carry health insurance. We hope to make a playoff run this year, but if we dont, our insurance is that we will get high draft picks. I don't like cutting the policy.
6. When we traded up for Ingram it did not work out great.
7. It made 2 of our first 3 picks offense, when we know we need to focus on defense. I feel that if the players you need are not there at a given pick, the best player available is the two players at positions you that you can get by trading back, or not trading up.
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Well, I'll just say I think you're a little too hung up on next year's draft value when we've got a chance to make some noise this year with players from this draft. We went into this draft with less picks than we ended up taking and I'll bet we can do the same next year if we want to to get that QB you think we'll be drafting.
5/7 went to defense. An OT who was the highest graded in the draft at the end of the first and a RB who can do it all early in the third who had an early 2nd grade on him. That's value when you're trying to make it out of the perennial 7-9 slump we've been stuck in. The picks we made on defense are all solid to great as well, with the Mohammed pick being a wild card. 6 picks in the first three rounds of this draft. I'm willing to bet that barring injury, all 6 of these guys will be contributors this year and will ultimately make the team a lot better.
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The bottom line for me is this. We needed a satellite back. Our offense is at it's best when we have a pass catching threat out of the backfield. So we went up and got the 2nd best joker back in this class in the 3rd round. The Panthers drafted the top joker at #8. We got the next best guy 59 picks later. To get Kamara at #67 presented tremendous value.
Sure we had to trade next year's 2nd but we were able to keep our two 3rds this year. That was huge. Having three 3rd round picks this year, in this draft, was big time. We needed help now and we got it.
Sure we had to trade next year's 2nd but we were able to keep our two 3rds this year. That was huge. Having three 3rd round picks this year, in this draft, was big time. We needed help now and we got it.
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That's now how it works at all. Just because he's a "3rd down back", doesn't mean he will only play on 3rd downs. You are taking the term way too literally. Kamara will have a lot of touches on 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th downs.
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I like the trade. People are making this second round pick for a third like it's the end of times. Look his skill set matches perfectly with what Payton does on offense. Yes we have two big backs but do not have the Bush/Sproles/PT sort of guy. Now we do.
You are right there are a lot of role playing mid tier backs. There are very few players that fit this offense the way he can. There are what maybe 2 in the NFL?
As far as not being a premium position in this offense, do you remember what Sproles did? Do you remember what Bush did? How about what Cadet and Spiller didn't do? It's too simplistic of argument. That role in the offense makes it unstoppable. Everyone here ha seen that hole since Sproles left.
Tired of the constant Ingram Bashing. Forget total yards. He is one of the best blocking backs in the league. He lead the league for most of the year in YPC. When he got mad about his usage he stepped up and had his best year ever when the challenge was made unlike Cooks who disappeared and is now in NE.
You are right there are a lot of role playing mid tier backs. There are very few players that fit this offense the way he can. There are what maybe 2 in the NFL?
As far as not being a premium position in this offense, do you remember what Sproles did? Do you remember what Bush did? How about what Cadet and Spiller didn't do? It's too simplistic of argument. That role in the offense makes it unstoppable. Everyone here ha seen that hole since Sproles left.
Tired of the constant Ingram Bashing. Forget total yards. He is one of the best blocking backs in the league. He lead the league for most of the year in YPC. When he got mad about his usage he stepped up and had his best year ever when the challenge was made unlike Cooks who disappeared and is now in NE.
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Liking the Kamara trade and pick is easy for me. Whether we are fully healthy or depleted at RB, Kamara simply gives Drew someone reliable to throw the ball to quickly. That is very important for extending drives, beating blitzes, and getting an almost guaranteed 4-6 yards or more.
Pair with all that the fact that the O-Line did a good job run blocking last year, and should be a better line going into 2017.
Pair all that with the absence of Cooks, and the addition of these two backs to the roster the past week or so is a critical security-blanket for Drew. Anything that is a high-percentage way to keep our offense on the field more is a positive for the whole team.
Pair with all that the fact that the O-Line did a good job run blocking last year, and should be a better line going into 2017.
Pair all that with the absence of Cooks, and the addition of these two backs to the roster the past week or so is a critical security-blanket for Drew. Anything that is a high-percentage way to keep our offense on the field more is a positive for the whole team.
2cmorgan
Pro-Bowler
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I believe he might have more than 1-2 years of elite level!
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While I agree Alvin Kamara isn't a 3rd stringer, both KV and Bell are at the top of their positions on the depth chart....who'd be in front of them? A rookie? Bush? Nah
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Swimmer
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You are on SR. Reality is not often a valued commodity if it's negative.
And reality is nothing but perception. Each one of us has our own reality and none are completely true. We only have our Point of View. Or so the Buddha tried to teach us. He was a pretty smart dude even 2,500 years ago.
I heard a rumor by some drunks in Pat O's who said in 2009 that SP was the 103rd reincarnation of of the Buddha. You know, Pat O's drinks are real strong
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Make it happen Loomis!
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Darren Sproles,Reggie Bush role. We have not made the Post season since we let Sproles walk.
Jeff Miller
Shaw 1988, NYIT 2009
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so glad this draft is over
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