Strong chances of the saints trading down? (1 Viewer)

guillermo

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As the draft approaches, I think that there is a strong possibility of the saints to trade down.

My reasoning: I wish I could be as optimistic as RealChrism that either Dorsey and Ellis will fall, but I think we will see Dorsey twice a year (as a falcon) and can't see the bengals passing on Ellis, even for a good pass rusher not named Long or Gholston.

Teams picking at 12, 13, 14,15 and 16 may all be thinking about taking a running back. Denver has many needs and don't take running backs early, but frankly, since Portis left they had good seasons from their runners but they haven't been dominating, Carolina has a good young runner in DeAngelo Williams, but can he be an every down back? Based on type of play and physical attributes, I have my questions. And in Chicago, Cedrick Benson has been such a dissapointment that chances are they will take one even with bigger needs in the quaterback position, offensive line and receivers. The Cards may start to look for a replacement for James and Detroit can't rely on Tatum Bell.

More or less, you can make the same analysis with offensive tackles. We may be lucky that teams between 12 and 16 have all the same needs.

If a team picking on the 20's is fixed in one runner and offensive tackle is fixed on a player, the ideal spot to trade is at 11 with the bills, but better not risk and try to trade a little higher. In this case, I think the bengals may not be willing to trade down, but I see the saints and bills willing.

Even if McFadden is taken early, I can see a big market for Mendenhall (even from Dallas), this is a good year from runners but now that Jonathan Stewart had surgery last week, I think there is a big drop in the quality after Mendenhall.

By the time the saint pick, one offensive tackle will be taken, maybe two, and two more will be gone before the last third of the round. Once again the saints position may be attractive.

Now what's for the saints? the tackles will be gone, linebacker may not be a huge need now, and Rivers will be taken by them only if they think he is the best player to take. There are good defensive tackles but their value are at the bottom of the first round. And what about the corners? We can't see the saints board but chances are there will be no huge difference between the first and sixth player taken. I think McKelvin, DRC, Jenkins, Smith, Cason, Flowers are all good players and will have an impact if drafted by the saints.

Even if McFadden is taken, I can see the cowboys trying to trade up for Mendenhall, specially if they can grab Pacman Jones. Jerry Jones may think this is their time to make a run because of the age of his receivers.

Pittsburgh is normally conservative in the draft but they are not afraid to move up for the right player, as they did with Polamalu. Atlanta and Baltimore and Kansas City may be trying to jump back to the first round to get the second quarterback if they pass on Ryan. In minor movements, Detroit and Arizona may want to move up to jump Denver, Carolina and Chicago since they have the same needs.

There is great value between the 20 and the 50th picks. The saints may get two great players if they pick in the current slots, but if they have a chance to pick 3 players in the top 50, I think they may prefer to do it.
 
no offense but I thought this was some information you read or heard and not a scenario you thought of...but I still agree with you...but I also would agree with a guy who said there is a chance we trade back, and a guy who said there is a chance we stay were we are....I guess its the title that made me think this was actually information being passed on.
 
I read somewhere this morning that Jacksonville may be looking to trade up for Derrick Harvey. The Saints are probably a bit too high for Jax to trade up with, but I thought it was worth mentioning nonetheless.
 
no offense but I thought this was some information you read or heard and not a scenario you thought of...but I still agree with you...but I also would agree with a guy who said there is a chance we trade back, and a guy who said there is a chance we stay were we are....I guess its the title that made me think this was actually information being passed on.

My first glance made it that way for me too but a longer look brought the question mark to my attention.
 
As to trading down, I think the chances are just about as good as trading up. I just have no idea, but feel that it will be one of the two.(Instead of staying @ #10)
 
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Won't surprise me one bit if we stay put and take the best defensive player available at 10. I'd go as far to say that it's more likely that we stay put than to move in either direction. There are too many solid players 1-10 to move up and too much of a defensive need to pass on a top 10 player. God forbid we end up with another first rounder like Sullivan who was a complete and udder (pun intended) failure or Meachem who played zero downs for us last year. With one or two solid draft picks that can produce for us this year, we have the tools to make it deep into the playoffs. Our window is now with the personel we have. Waiting several years for rookies to develop might be past that window.
 
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no offense but I thought this was some information you read or heard and not a scenario you thought of...but I still agree with you...but I also would agree with a guy who said there is a chance we trade back, and a guy who said there is a chance we stay were we are....I guess its the title that made me think this was actually information being passed on.

Meily, no offense taken, but I have posting here since the site was created and even before that in other forums, and my writings are proof enough that I am the owner of my own thoughts. If I hate something around is poster-copycats.

My analysis came with the premise of in what scenario I would not hate the saints to take an offensive player, and my only answer was if the saints take Branden Albert (I think he will be a very special player for years to come) who will give the saints one of the best interior lines in the game.

I would take Albert only in the 20's and if we had 2 extra picks in the top 50. From there, I started my analysis and realized that teams between 12 and 16 have the saints needs, etc.
 
I do agree with your post though, I think the Saints want a young DT and I think they have been doing there homework on the DT position, much like snatching up Evans, Bushrod, Colston, I think the Saints draft a guy just as talented as a Dorsey or Ellis, but just not as known, small school big school, it doesnt matter to Payton and Loomis, production and work ethic makes you a good draft pick to Payton, i'm expecting to hear a couple names i've never heard before when the Saints pick, because they go outside of the mainstream and look for talent, specially when we are not in a position to get said talent.
 
i wouldnt mind trading down to the eagles spot for Lito and ther 1st round pick, then grab another CB with the 1st and then a DT with our 2nd
 
no offense but I thought this was some information you read or heard and not a scenario you thought of...I guess its the title that made me think this was actually information being passed on.

You thought it was inside information? This far from the draft?? C'mon man?! Most draft trades aren't realized until draft day. Also, I'd much rather hear the insights from a Saints fan who has disected the scenarios himself rather than some ESPN goober who has no real knowledge of the Saints, no inside "sources", and just needs to throw out some rumors to meet a deadline or quota.

To the OP, great post!
 
You thought it was inside information? This far from the draft?? C'mon man?! Most draft trades aren't realized until draft day. Also, I'd much rather hear the insights from a Saints fan who has disected the scenarios himself rather than some ESPN goober who has no real knowledge of the Saints, no inside "sources", and just needs to throw out some rumors to meet a deadline or quota.

To the OP, great post!

there are some in here that are quick to nit pick yet if only they had paid attention.
the question mark should have "said" it all. but I digress.

And no I'm not his girl or sister
 
BTW. thanks for the comments, and no chance on me having insight information. I am in Montreal surrounded by snow, only have met one member on the forum, and that is about it.

I just think that our slot in the draft is very interesting, at the time the defensive tackles will be gone, we maybe able to pick any of the corners (but I don't see one clearly jumping over the others) and later many teams will be looking for the same players.

I agree with mvtrucking, we may trade up or down, but I wish we can somehow get 3 players in the first 50 picks.
 
i see a better chance of us trading up between 5-8 if we don't draft a starting DT we will probably not make the playoffs we have to have a pass rush.
 
I could see Detroit trading with us to get Mendenhall (they need a RB), and this we prevent him going to the Bears. Three picks out of the top 50 would be great for us. We could get a Mayo, LB, Porter, CB, and Moore or Laws as a DT. Defense would be much improved.
 
All of the teams behind us will be calling Buffalo first if they want RB. There is no reason to inflate there cost unless Buffalo sees a prospect they can't pass on that will be there. Anyone know what Buffalo needs?
 

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