Super Tuesday Predictions

Waymer

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Get 'em in all you political experts. What are we looking at today?
 
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Richard

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I'm not an expert, but I believe Obama will come out of the day as the big winner on the Dems side when he takes (or finishes even in) some states that were previously thought to be solidly in Hillary's camp, such as California. The Republican story will be that Huckabee and Romney cancel each other out and McCain wins the majority of delegates. Romney will have to have unexpectedly strong showings in some states to remain viable. It's pretty sad that in a wide open presidential election year (no president running for re-election or VP standing in line) that this group was the best either party had to offer. Sad, indeed.
 
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Severum

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McCain should seal up the GOP nomination today due to support from WTA states. Romney has to stop wasting his kids inheritance eventually.

The Dem race is more interesting. It should be tight (within 100 delegates) and could go to the convention if there isn't a clear winner. I hope the poll momentum indicates undecideds will break for Obama.

State by state guesses:
Obama
IL - Home state, strong win.
GA - Large poll/demographic/process advantage, strong win.
KS - Ancestral home state, organizational/endorsement advantage.
ID - Only one competing here, open caucus/organizational advantage.
UT - Big single poll and organizational/process advantage, not much data.
MN - Polls say either way, open caucus and youth vote say Obama.
ND - Organizational/endorsement/process advantage, no polling data.
AK - Demographic/organizational advantage, pure guess.
Dems Abroad - Early numbers say Obama.

Clinton

NY - Adopted home, strong win.
AR - Other home, strong win.
OK - Demographic/poll advantage, strong win.
TN - Campaign/organizational/poll advantage.
NJ - Should be a strong win due to geography, but polls are tightening.
MA - Obama has all the endorsements, but polls say Clinton.

Tossup
MO - Turnout will decide MO.
CA - Turnout will decide CA, should go Clinton but Obama has been trending up.
CT - Could go either way, slight lean Clinton.
NM - Demographic/endorsement advantage Clinton, organizational advantage Obama, too little polling data, lean Clinton.
AL - Demographic advantage Obama, endorsements Clinton, lean Obama.
CO - Limited polling data says either way, lean Obama.
DE - Campaign/organizational advantage to Obama, little polling data, lean Obama.
AZ - Demographic advantage Clinton, endorsements Obama, lean Clinton.
American Samoa - Endorsement advantage Clinton, maybe geographic advantage Obama, unknown.
 
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Pure Energy

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Contrary to a number of the polls, I look for a big win for Hillary in CA following the pattern in FL. If it's tight after today on the Dem side, I look for the DNC to reinsate FL and Michigan delegates and that would decide the nomination in an unseemly fashion for Hillary.

On the Republican side, I look for Huckabee to continue as a thorn in Romney's side. Worst case for Romney is for Huckabee to get too much of the vote to force him out. The major difference I see in the platforms of Huckabee and Romney is Huckabee's plan to eliminate the Income tax. Although one may question the politically viability of such a proposal, it's clearly the most radical change being proposed by any of the front-runners. I'm looking for a surprise in the Republican vote with Romney garnering less support than the polls are projecting.
 

saintfan-n-alex

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the biggest outcome of today will be the dropping of Huckabee, i think Romney will be the winner of those 2.

then we will be down to the final 4 for the remainder of the primary -

Edwards didnt endorse anyone - possible move to become the VP for either candidate.
 

RJ in Lafayette

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The analysis by Severum is as good as any that I have seen. California will be the big news. There, Obama is gaining on Clinton and should win the voting that actually takes place today. The question is whether the large number of preprimary votes, which should favor Hillary heavily, can be overcome.

The big voter blocs for Hillary are women and Hispanics. The latter should break heavily for Clinton. Can Hillary maintain her big edge with women voters, or will it shrink enough to give Obama the edge? Though on the Democratic side, the battle concerns delegates, and the voting will be sufficiently close so that the delegate count will be close, there are the matters of momentum and perception.

For the latest polling data per state, go to www.realclearpolitics.com.
 
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porculator

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It's pretty sad that in a wide open presidential election year (no president running for re-election or VP standing in line) that this group was the best either party had to offer. Sad, indeed.
Yeah but either way we'll have better choices than we did in 2004 and arguably 2000 depending on who wins the nominations.
 

Redlands Saints

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on the Dems side I think your gonna see Obama pull out California, you have to be here to feel it, all of the local politicos who jumped behind her aren't the most popular right now. as far as Reps Romney's been hitting the air waves pretty hard the last few days and getting his name out there and contrary to what the pollsters say McCain is not that popular here. he gets the old vote but Romney pulls more of the young vote and if turn out is what they are saying its going to be, most of our schools in the district are polling places and are packed. I think Romney will win.
 

Saint by the Bay

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on the Dems side I think your gonna see Obama pull out California, you have to be here to feel it, all of the local politicos who jumped behind her aren't the most popular right now.
Thanks for the local insights from on the ground. I was wondering what the atmosphere was like there in regards to the Dem primary. With the numbers so close excitement which drives turnout could be the deciding factor.

I'm expecting Obama to lose by 5-8 points everywhere except a few spots he'll win (Illinois, Georgia, etc.) and New York where he'll get blown out. My hope is that he keeps the delegate count close because if he does it will give him all the momentum down the stretch. The good thing about being the upstart in primaries is you don't have to win to "win".
 

SaintsFan11

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If Obama wins California then he will "win" Super Tuesday no matter what happens.

If that doesn't happen, I think it will be called a "draw" with Hillary coming out ahead but with Obama continuing his momentum. If the difference in delegates is <100 then the schedule becomes much friendlier for Obama with easier contests for him coming up next and time to build momentum. He also has significantly more money than she does.

I really don't see anyone coming out ahead on the Democratic side, although Hillary's strength may lie below the radar and she could come out just far enough ahead to put the kibosh on Obama's momentum for the time being. If the delegate count is closer than 50 coming out of Super Tuesday (this would include the previous contests), Obama is going to come out stronger. If Obama comes out ahead in delegates, it looks bad for Hillary. If she opens up a 100+ delegate lead, she becomes tough to beat because of the nature of the split delegates. It will be interesting to see how the moral victories (state wins) vs. the delegate victories play out.


As for the GOP, I think Romney does better than people think but in the end it's not enough and after today the race is essentially over. For all of the talk about Huckabee as Vice-President, I would imagine McCain will pick a darling of the conservatives to heal the GOP schism.
 
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The media has been propping up John McCain and Obama so that is who I am expecting to win. I don't expect McCain to wrap the race up today either. It's going to be close between him and Romney, this is going to a convention where anything can happen. I also expect Ron Paul to steal a few states as well as Huckabee.
 

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