Super Tuesday Predictions (1 Viewer)

Previous Next
The media has been propping up John McCain and Obama so that is who I am expecting to win. I don't expect McCain to wrap the race up today either. It's going to be close between him and Romney, this is going to a convention where anything can happen. I also expect Ron Paul to steal a few states as well as Huckabee.
 
I was thinking the same way SF11 but then I remebered the Super Delegates. Clinton is way ahead there. Obama will need to be even or pretty close to it, like <50, to still have a shot. Hillary is currently ahead in Super Delegates by 97 so Obama coming out of tonight at -100 actually puts him at -197 which would be nearly unsurmountable.

That being said Super Delegates aren't committed yet and can still change. Obama actually picked up quite a few the last couple of weeks as Hillary was up on him by over 160 in them at one point.
 
OK, I'm very ignorant in terms of politics...it's only been the last few years that I've begun to take an interest in these things...but explain to me what it means when people say "if it goes to the convention," etc. What happens at the convention that matters so much if Obama is close?

Also I also don't understand the full concept of super delegates. I understand the concept on a very basic level, but not much more.

Someone break it down for me.
 
Waymer said:
OK, I'm very ignorant in terms of politics...it's only been the last few years that I've begun to take an interest in these things...but explain to me what it means when people say "if it goes to the convention," etc. What happens at the convention that matters so much if Obama is close?

Also I also don't understand the full concept of super delegates. I understand the concept on a very basic level, but not much more.

Someone break it down for me.
Click to expand...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008
 
Super Delegates are various party officials, elected and otherwise, that count as one delegate. There is no election involved, they can just go where they want. There are 840 or so all together (can't remember exact number) and Bill Clinton is one.

It is almost guaranteed that the difference between Obama and Hillary will be less than 800 delegates so in the end the Super Delegates will probably decide this thing. Since they don't have to make their decision final until the Democratic National Convention we probably won't know who wins this thing until then and there will be a lot of wheeling and dealing going on.

This will pit the Kennedy political machine against the Clinton political machine in a battle royale (with cheese). Oh but to be a fly on the walls at the convention.
 
Saint by the Bay said:
Super Delegates are various party officials, elected and otherwise, that count as one delegate. There is no election involved, they can just go where they want. There are 840 or so all together (can't remember exact number) and Bill Clinton is one.

It is almost guaranteed that the difference between Obama and Hillary will be less than 800 delegates so in the end the Super Delegates will probably decide this thing. Since they don't have to make their decision final until the Democratic National Convention we probably won't know who wins this thing until then and there will be a lot of wheeling and dealing going on.

This will pit the Kennedy political machine against the Clinton political machine in a battle royale (with cheese). Oh but to be a fly on the walls at the convention.
Click to expand...

So of the 800 or so, I've seen 463 have currently "declared" (I realize that could change). Are those 463 super delegates from just the few states that have voted already, or can super delegates from any state just come out whenever they want and say they support so and so?
 
Saint by the Bay said:
I was thinking the same way SF11 but then I remebered the Super Delegates. Clinton is way ahead there. Obama will need to be even or pretty close to it, like <50, to still have a shot. Hillary is currently ahead in Super Delegates by 97 so Obama coming out of tonight at -100 actually puts him at -197 which would be nearly unsurmountable.

That being said Super Delegates aren't committed yet and can still change. Obama actually picked up quite a few the last couple of weeks as Hillary was up on him by over 160 in them at one point.
Click to expand...

I agree in that Hillary has the Super Delegate advantage, but for now I am disregarding them. If Obama does well tonight (and I've spelled out what I think "doing well" is) and continues to roll through Washington, Louisiana, Maryland, DC and Virginia, then there will be a tightening. I also think that in the end if Obama comes out ahead in regular delegates that he will come out ahead in super delegates (or with enough to win). Of course, that means he has to make his move tonight (keep within 100 delegates, preferably closer) and throughout the next two weeks. That is his window to achieve front-runner status and start racking up super delegates.
 
Waymer said:
So of the 800 or so, I've seen 463 have currently "declared" (I realize that could change). Are those 463 super delegates from just the few states that have voted already, or can super delegates from any state just come out whenever they want and say they support so and so?
Click to expand...

They can come out whenever they like. They are not required to commit until the convention. I believe they can change even after they have declared up until the convention. The declaration isn't official until it's pronounced on the convention floor I believe.
 
On the Democratic side, Obama flat out wins IMO.

On the Republican side, no one will get enough delegates to win. One of two things will then happen.

1. Huck will drop out and support McCain (thus giving McCain enough delegates to win)
2. All three come to Texas to fight it out. I think this is a more likely option if Huck does good in the south.

IMO the Republican ticket is going to be McCain/Huck against Obama/unknown... I don't think Hillary will be the Veep. The Democrats will try to shore up mainstream support by finding a moderate to help them seal the deal. Heck, they might even put a white guy in there.
 
I predict that after I pick up my kids from school in about an hour, I'm going to get myself quickdrunk on rum then head to the polls.

As long as I remember to vote yes on all of the Indian casino bills Arnie told me I had to, I should be fine.


Arnold.JPG


"Cleeforenyah"
 
the best thing that can happen to our country is an obama mccain election...
 
Does anyone thing voter turn out in NewYork city will be low today?

The reason being that they are having a ticker tape parade for the Giants right now..

If so, do you think that hurts Hillary? Just something I'm wondering about.
 
OnePeat said:
the best thing that can happen to our country is an obama mccain election...
Click to expand...

The best thing that could happen for our nation and the world is Hillary being the next President and Obama accepting the Vice Presidency.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Register

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Previous Next

Users who are viewing this thread

    Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)

    Share this page

     

    Twitter

    Back
    Top Bottom