Surprise Winston start next week? (1 Viewer)

[Ihartsaints]

Lol, I think it is a horrible comparison, but it's very similar to the parallel Winston fans try to draw between the start of his career and the start of Peyton Manning's career...

You are right it is is a horrible comparison if you're a Winston fan. Statistically, Winston was a train wreck.

 

[Loco Hornet Fan]

You are right it is is a horrible comparison if you're a Winston fan. Statistically, Winston was a train wreck.

No, it is a horrible comparison because of the samples you've chosen.

You are trying to compare a 20 year old kid, brand new to the NFL, and starting for a team that was bad enough to have the #1 overall pick the previous year (they went 2-14) with a 30 year old man who has been through 4 NFL training camps, 3 preseasons, practices and meetings with one of the best passers in history, and taken a bunch of NFL snaps already (and gotten used to the speed of the game at other positions). Not to mention the fact that he is playing on one of the best team in the league.

One of those players is expected to make the kind of mistakes and put up the poor stats you are talking about in your examples, whereas it is a bit more disappointing to see it from the other (even though it was only his second actual start).

None of of this is meant to overlook Winston's imperfections (such as his turnover problem), or suggest that Taysom Hill will continue to look as bad as he did against Denver.

That 4 game sample between the two players just came off as a poor comparison (that would favor the veteran player). I'm not trying to argue one guy over the other right now; I just don't think that comparison really tells us anything though.

 

[Grilled Brees Sandwich]

1. Taysom had a bad day in Denver.
2. 34% of the time, Jameis had a worse completion rate.
3. Jameis has never had a higher completion rate than Taysom did in his first start.
4. You are correct, Taysom should start.

LOL. Yeah comparing a guy with 70 starts and an aggressive downfield passing game to a guy with 2 starts with a running passing game makes zero sense. The jury is still out on both of them really.
Amazed how so many haters want to dunk on a guy who wanted to come here for all the right reasons.

 

[No2DC]

OK, let us review Winston v. Hill .

Since you are comparing him to Taysom who has started 2 of what is likely to be 4 games it is only fair to compare Winston's first 4 games.



Taysom's first game 78% completion scored 2 TDs and had 1 fumble and 0 interception
Jameis' first game 48% completion scored 2 TDs and had 2 fumble and 2 interception

Taysom's second game 56% completion scored 2 TDs and had 1 fumble and 1 interception
Jameis' second game 67% completion scored 2 TDs and had 1 fumble and 0 interception

Average for the first two games
Taysom 67.26 % completion 2 TDs/gm 0.5 interceptions/gm 1.0 fumbles/gm
Jameis 57.58 % completion 2 TDs/gm 1.0 interceptions/gm 1.5 fumbles/gm

Two games into both their careers and Taysom is clearly ahead. After the next two games would you like to wager who is ahead then? I don't foresee Taysom throwing 5 interceptions in the next two games. Do you?

Now let's look at Winston's Arm talent

• 70 career starts
• 24 games or just over 1/3 had a worse completion rate than Taysom did in Denver and we all agree Taysom was subpar in Denver. One-third of Winston's starts or 5 plus games every season he is worse than Taysom's bad day.
• In 70 starts Winston rushed for 10 TDs. In Taysom's first two starts he has rushed for 4 TDs. Put another way, that average would equate to 140 Rushing TDs over 70 games. In comparison, Jameis has only 128 passing and rushing career TDs as a starter. Ouch. Even if Taysom never threw a TD pass he would likely eclipse Jameis Winston's TD production.
• In Winston's entire career of 70 starts he never once had a competition % higher than Taysom did in his very first start.

I'd really like to know how you define ARM TALENT.

LOL. I would like to know how you celebrate a QB that only has 2 NFL starts and no TDs thrown. Running QBs historically don't last, we all know this. But hey I'm fine with Hill continuing to start in Drew's absence. You guys keep dreaming.

 

[tinman]

I'd like to see the look on the ATL's face, when opening play BOTH Hill & Winston take the field! No matter the outcome, it would be priceless to see the Falcon's & hear the announcers, LOL.
2nd play, Winston hits the sidelines & the game goes on.

 

[Ihartsaints]

No, it is a horrible comparison because of the samples you've chosen.

You are trying to compare a 20 year old kid, brand new to the NFL, and starting for a team that was bad enough to have the #1 overall pick the previous year (they went 2-14) with a 30 year old man who has been through 4 NFL training camps, 3 preseasons, practices and meetings with one of the best passers in history, and taken a bunch of NFL snaps already (and gotten used to the speed of the game at other positions). Not to mention the fact that he is playing on one of the best team in the league.

One of those players is expected to make the kind of mistakes and put up the poor stats you are talking about in your examples, whereas it is a bit more disappointing to see it from the other (even though it was only his second actual start).

None of of this is meant to overlook Winston's imperfections (such as his turnover problem), or suggest that Taysom Hill will continue to look as bad as he did against Denver.

That 4 game sample between the two players just came off as a poor comparison (that would favor the veteran player). I'm not trying to argue one guy over the other right now; I just don't think that comparison really tells us anything though.

Bingo. You got my point. The efforts to make a case for either backup based on cherry-picked stats is just par for the social media era course.

The above does not negate my wider point that Jameis had an average of 5 games each season statistically worse than Hills performance in Denver. So anyone that wants to argue Hill's game in Denver disqualifies him as a future starting QB is attacking their own argument favoring Winston.

Remember that the knock on Taysom is his passing game, there is no possible argument that Winston is the better runner. When Winston throws an interception it was not the coach or his teammates that made the decision when or where to throw the ball. Nor was it their "Arm Tallent" that threw it. Arguably TB had a better receiving corp than the Saints in 2019 so I reject out of hand the excuses you made for him.

The statistical wars are specious; we agree. So too are the unproven fantasy that a new team and coach is some miracle cure. Payton is good but he is not a magician.

My sole and best argument is that Coach Sean Payton agrees with me and disagrees with anyone that advocates for Winston to start instead of Tayson.

If it isn't enough that the one man, most qualified to make the decision, chose Tayson, then no argument some anonymous person on the internet offers is going to change your mind.

 

[Ihartsaints]

LOL. I would like to know how you celebrate a QB that only has 2 NFL starts and no TDs thrown. Running QBs historically don't last, we all know this. But hey I'm fine with Hill continuing to start in Drew's absence. You guys keep dreaming.

My sole and best argument is that Coach Sean Payton agrees with me and disagrees with anyone that advocated for Winston to start the last two games instead of Tayson.

 

[Ihartsaints]

This is the exact same gameplan we saw when Teddy was in for Drew last year.
Don't take chances, don't turn the ball over, just take time off the clock and let the defense set the tone.

Sean has a lot of faith in his defense and not a lot of faith that Jameis won't take unnecessary chances it seems.

I think I have to disagree with you. The teams Teddy faced all had viable QBs.

Also, the game plan against Atlanta was nothing like Teddy's games. It was rather aggressive, not conservative.

 

[Meachemdat]

I think I have to disagree with you. The teams Teddy faced all had viable QBs.

Also, the game plan against Atlanta was nothing like Teddy's games. It was rather aggressive, not conservative.

It was extremely conservative until after the 1st half. Sean started letting go of the reins a bit in the 3rd quarter.
In the Broncos game Sean only called 16 passes.

I see a lot of the same direction, "Don't take unnecessary chances".
Granted we did see some deep shots to Sanders against the Falcons. If that TD isn't called back for holding, the narrative on Taysom may be wildly different than it is now.

 

[sainthood]

I think it comes down to the schedule. Against inferior opponents for the four game stretch that Brees is out a running quarterback who will throw selectively as a game manager is preferable to a gunslinger who has a known problem with turnovers. Atlanta, Denver, and Philadelphia are weak teams. Atlanta beat the Raiders last week because the Raiders turned the ball over and had poor red zone offense. Hill can run the ball in the redzone and can shorten the game by running the ball and allow our superior defense to win. This probably would not have worked versus Tampa Bay, Green Bay, or Kansas City with the same win probability because we would need to put up more offensive points. I think this is where Payton's head is at and why we are not seeing Winston. This is not the same strategy Payton may use when given a full season with no Drew Brees. I trust Coach Payton to be smarter than any of us dealing with this issue.

 

[Ihartsaints]

It was extremely conservative until after the 1st half. Sean started letting go of the reins a bit in the 3rd quarter.
In the Broncos game Sean only called 16 passes.

I see a lot of the same direction, "Don't take unnecessary chances".
Granted we did see some deep shots to Sanders against the Falcons. If that TD isn't called back for holding, the narrative on Taysom may be wildly different than it is now.

When I said the Falcons game was aggressive I was referring to the fact that Payton was taking Taysom out of the role we expected (Run) and keeping him in the pocket.

Playing Taysom outside his comfort zone is not what I would call conservative. Below is Teddy's first two starts and to the right Taysom's Atlanta game. I think you will agree his passing was much more aggressive.