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Chopblock

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I'm not convinced it'll be a U.S threat yet.

We might have something closer to watch at home if it pans out.

Edit.
If it forms into a TS today, there will be a lot of irony in it, in that it would be name Katia, which is the name that replaced Katrina
 

saintsfanfl

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I'm not convinced it'll be a U.S threat yet.

We might have something closer to watch at home if it pans out.
I concur. While it's never too soon to keep an open eye, many of the long range models have this turning north and potentially only being a threat to Bermuda if it affects any land at all and most are saying it will remain a fish storm.

But I for one, never stop watching until they are north of the 27th parallel and/or at least 200 miles off my coast and even then, I don't always trust them after the loop d loop Jeanne did off the coast in '04 before slamming into the West Palm Beach area after everyone thought it was going to continue north and out to sea.
 

primadox

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I'm thinking this one is going to be a fish; they say it is currently moving west but all models have it going north of west almost immediately. If it really does start to move off of that due west track today, I'm probably not going to pay much attention to it. If it stays on a westward track today, I'll see if they start adjusting their models accordingly.
 

gboudx

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There's more chance that something will develop in the BoC this weekend and/or early next week. With the Texas Ridge of Hell breaking down, the GoM will open.
 

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There's more chance that something will develop in the BoC this weekend and/or early next week. With the Texas Ridge of Hell breaking down, the GoM will open.
Is the ridge finally breaking down? Good news for all the Texans that haven't seen a drop of rain in 6 months. Still, wouldn't the Azores/Bermuda high have to move further west to open the GOMEX to west moving storms? Maybe the lack of a Texas ridge would do that, I don't know.
 

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We could use an early cool/cold front this year. We all deserve it after this heat we have been dealing with for the past few months.
 

gboudx

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Is the ridge finally breaking down? Good news for all the Texans that haven't seen a drop of rain in 6 months. Still, wouldn't the Azores/Bermuda high have to move further west to open the GOMEX to west moving storms? Maybe the lack of a Texas ridge would do that, I don't know.
The GoM will be open to systems developing in the BoC/GoM and/or Western Caribbean. I haven't looked at how the Bermuda High will be oriented in that timeframe, but I'll take a look.
 

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The GoM will be open to systems developing in the BoC/GoM and/or Western Caribbean. I haven't looked at how the Bermuda High will be oriented in that timeframe, but I'll take a look.
Last I checked, it will be pretty weak for TD12 time out in the atlantic. That is why I have low confidence that it will be a U.S threat, and this has been a consistent thing.
 

gboudx

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Thanks Chopblock. I'm pretty excited about the Texas ridge breaking down and moving away. It'll leave a weakness over the state and allow some deep tropical moisture to move up from the Caribbean. Finally we'll have something to provide lift and the moisture available to actually form clouds and rain. A nice, weak tropical system wouldn't be a bad thing either. It's starting to look like Fall with all the leaves falling off of stressed trees.
 

primadox

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There's more chance that something will develop in the BoC this weekend and/or early next week. With the Texas Ridge of Hell breaking down, the GoM will open.

:hihi: That is a very, very accurate description...

50-60% rain chances here the end of the week. I'm not even a bit upset at the prospect of a rainy Labor Day weekend...bring it on!
 

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Again, thank you for putting this in terms I can understand. Since Katrina, I have started watching the storms a lot further out. My doc says that I have PTSD, I seem to believe I want to be prepared. I can evacuate if need be, I just like getting the truth in lieu of scare tactics from national media. It is my disposition that I can't follow what the scientists are saying in their reports. So thank you for helping a buddy out.
 

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