The Bargain Bin - 300 Unsigned Veterans & A Stagnant Cap (1 Viewer)

St. PJ

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Thanks to "The People's GM" - Pat Kirwin - I'd like to summarize a conversation I heard on Moving The Chains today. Save for a few offensive tackles and a guy named Elvis, the big $ deals are over. The conclusion of the owner's meetings offers a line of demarcation. From this point forward, the near 300 veteran free agents will be getting much less than they feel entitled to making.

The draft has just over 250 rookies who are young, healthy, and cheap. The salary cap has remained the same with less than 2% increase per year over the last three years and looks to remain stagnant until 2015. The TV revenue doubles in 2014, and while the owners will see that increase in cash flow, the players (salary cap) won't see it until 2015 because each year's salary cap is figured on the final numbers from the PREVIOUS league year's revenue.

The point? Simply put, there isn't any money to go around and it will be a buyers market from here on out. It will be much more economic to go with younger players than to continue to give veteran players money they are worth- perceived or actual. Once the draft is concluded, watch the amount of veteran players who are released. The end result will see many teams signing numerous veterans for very cheap 1-3 year deals.

The market has dried up. There just isn't money to go around. Sure, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and Peyton and Tom and Joe will get $20+ million annually, but the middle class will suffer for it. Good veteran players will be forced to choose between early retirement or playing for substantially less money. In the old CBA, this was what would happen to players in their mid to late 30's with maybe a year or two left-- their ego would have to accept that their market value isn't what they thought. All of the deals drafted under the previous CBA were built under the assumption that the salary cap would increase 6 to 9 million per year-- as it had every year since it's inception 20 or so year ago.

The age has changed. Unless you are 28 or younger, you are no longer getting big money. Hell, you are no longer getting what you are worth. That's why we see players with name recognition linger on the market. Can we guess what it means that Charles Woodson, Nnamdi, Freeney, Harrison, on down the line aren't signing contracts? Sure-- it means slowly but surely, their asking price is going down. They are beginning to reconcile the fact that 1) they have very little market value; 2) the market is flooded; and 3) with the draft looming, there will be less market value and less job openings come May.

The Saints do not have very much cap space to work with. Guess what, most teams are in the same boat. If the remaining 300 or so free agents want a job, they will have to sign for not much over minimum. For a team with needs to fill and very little cap space, this is the perfect remedy. For a fan wanting to know "why haven't we signed this position or that player", the answer is that at this moment your unsigned veteran's price is dropping.

In summation, stay patient. The Saints will be able to add a handful more quality veteran players who will improve their depth, fill a starting role or two, all for a bargain rack price.
 

treeduck

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Thanks to "The People's GM" - Pat Kirwin - I'd like to summarize a conversation I heard on Moving The Chains today. Save for a few offensive tackles and a guy named Elvis, the big $ deals are over. The conclusion of the owner's meetings offers a line of demarcation. From this point forward, the near 300 veteran free agents will be getting much less than they feel entitled to making.

The draft has just over 250 rookies who are young, healthy, and cheap. The salary cap has remained the same with less than 2% increase per year over the last three years and looks to remain stagnant until 2015. The TV revenue doubles in 2014, and while the owners will see that increase in cash flow, the players (salary cap) won't see it until 2015 because each year's salary cap is figured on the final numbers from the PREVIOUS league year's revenue.

The point? Simply put, there isn't any money to go around and it will be a buyers market from here on out. It will be much more economic to go with younger players than to continue to give veteran players money they are worth- perceived or actual. Once the draft is concluded, watch the amount of veteran players who are released. The end result will see many teams signing numerous veterans for very cheap 1-3 year deals.

The market has dried up. There just isn't money to go around. Sure, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and Peyton and Tom and Joe will get $20+ million annually, but the middle class will suffer for it. Good veteran players will be forced to choose between early retirement or playing for substantially less money. In the old CBA, this was what would happen to players in their mid to late 30's with maybe a year or two left-- their ego would have to accept that their market value isn't what they thought. All of the deals drafted under the previous CBA were built under the assumption that the salary cap would increase 6 to 9 million per year-- as it had every year since it's inception 20 or so year ago.

The age has changed. Unless you are 28 or younger, you are no longer getting big money. Hell, you are no longer getting what you are worth. That's why we see players with name recognition linger on the market. Can we guess what it means that Charles Woodson, Nnamdi, Freeney, Harrison, on down the line aren't signing contracts? Sure-- it means slowly but surely, their asking price is going down. They are beginning to reconcile the fact that 1) they have very little market value; 2) the market is flooded; and 3) with the draft looming, there will be less market value and less job openings come May.

The Saints do not have very much cap space to work with. Guess what, most teams are in the same boat. If the remaining 300 or so free agents want a job, they will have to sign for not much over minimum. For a team with needs to fill and very little cap space, this is the perfect remedy. For a fan wanting to know "why haven't we signed this position or that player", the answer is that at this moment your unsigned veteran's price is dropping.

In summation, stay patient. The Saints will be able to add a handful more quality veteran players who will improve their depth, fill a starting role or two, all for a bargain rack price.

:potd:
 

SAINTSFAN

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Would be nice to scoop up a couple older veterans to fill some needs at a cheap price (i.e. a veteran LT and a veteran pass rusher).
 

duhonmark551

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It looks like the over thirty free agents would be the best choices for Loomis to use going forward. Guys like CB Nnamdi and LT McKinney on short contracts.

Loomis cut Herring last week when he didn't want to reduce his contract. Now today Herring has re-signed with us for much less cap hit ...because he has no other options. Others on the team now realize that Loomis can put a squeeze on them if they can be replaced cheaply, and they best take a million dollar cut or get the axe.

These recent tactics shows that Loomis is recalibrating his strategy to keep the team viable in this new market. It is definitely a buyer's market this off season. He is keeping the team together but is getting the cap space needed by asking for pay cuts from some players.
 

mulletslinger

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i agree. but...

you know, you could have said that with a lot less words. a lot. are you making word salad?
 

Saint_Ward

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Tony Gonzales isn't complaining. Urlacher got a decent offer for being old and slower. Steven Jackson got a great deal despite his age. Jennings got solid money.

Yeah, I understand guys like Harrison, but there are a ton of guys who are 34-35 out there and that's not common.

Also, teams will still pay for vetern talent, because it's usually reliable. However, most guys don't hit the big money on contract #3. Contract #2 is usually the big one, unless you're a future Hall of Famer. It's always been that way.

It would be worse if the rookies were still getting those huge contracts, because you HAVE to draft players.
 
OP
St. PJ

St. PJ

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Tony Gonzales isn't complaining. Urlacher got a decent offer for being old and slower. Steven Jackson got a great deal despite his age. Jennings got solid money.

Yeah, I understand guys like Harrison, but there are a ton of guys who are 34-35 out there and that's not common.

Also, teams will still pay for vetern talent, because it's usually reliable. However, most guys don't hit the big money on contract #3. Contract #2 is usually the big one, unless you're a future Hall of Famer. It's always been that way.

It would be worse if the rookies were still getting those huge contracts, because you HAVE to draft players.
What kirwin was getting at is free agency has gone from 3 distinct phases to two
Phase one was big money week. Phase two was mid level conracts. Phase three was bottom of roster or old vet with a year left type.

Essentially, phase two mingled with phase one -- superstars, budding players, and probowl productive vet. Whats leftover is all bargain bin with no more middle ground and the veteran pool will be deeper and younger due to flat cap

So yes, it is similar to most years, the difference is the volume and quality of veterans now and soon to be available who would not have been at risk nor so devalued under previous cba
 

Sev705

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What kirwin was getting at is free agency has gone from 3 distinct phases to two
Phase one was big money week. Phase two was mid level conracts. Phase three was bottom of roster or old vet with a year left type.

Essentially, phase two mingled with phase one -- superstars, budding players, and probowl productive vet. Whats leftover is all bargain bin with no more middle ground and the veteran pool will be deeper and younger due to flat cap

So yes, it is similar to most years, the difference is the volume and quality of veterans now and soon to be available who would not have been at risk nor so devalued under previous cba
To expand. That first phase also has started to contain less and less major players. The must have player was Kruger and bushrod. Not elite players in my opinion. Teams are starting to realize that the best fa's are their own and are trying to keep them.
 

captaustin

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I hope what your saying is right because I want to be wearing a black and gold Namdi jersey come next season! Harrison would be a beast for us too! I Deff see Namdi coming here I just think we have a shot at Darius Heyward-Bey! Guy is big fast and has glue for hands! Would compliment Colston perfectly and would overly excel in our system and also fill that meachem role we have all been wanting back Soo bad!
 

Nightshade

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I hope what your saying is right because I want to be wearing a black and gold Namdi jersey come next season! Harrison would be a beast for us too! I Deff see Namdi coming here I just think we have a shot at Darius Heyward-Bey! Guy is big fast and has glue for hands! Would compliment Colston perfectly and would overly excel in our system and also fill that meachem role we have all been wanting back Soo bad!
Darius Heyward-Bey has glue for hands?

Heyward-Bey has done little in the past four seasons to live up to his seventh overall draft selection or his $38 million deal. He caught only 53.2% of his targets this season, thanks to a 12.77% Drop Rate that was among the highest at his position.
During his time in Oakland, Heyward-Bey would display an inability to properly run routes and drop passes
 

No2DC

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The NFL has downsized and like corporate america (with the help of the nfpla dropping the ball on the cap) owners have decided they don't the excess labor (non-elite over thirty in most cases).
 

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