The Bargain Bin - 300 Unsigned Veterans & A Stagnant Cap (1 Viewer)

[No2DC]

The NFL has downsized and like corporate america (with the help of the nfpla dropping the ball on the cap) owners have decided they don't the excess labor (non-elite over thirty in most cases).

 

[guillermo]

Thanks to "The People's GM" - Pat Kirwin - I'd like to summarize a conversation I heard on Moving The Chains today. Save for a few offensive tackles and a guy named Elvis, the big $ deals are over. The conclusion of the owner's meetings offers a line of demarcation. From this point forward, the near 300 veteran free agents will be getting much less than they feel entitled to making.

The draft has just over 250 rookies who are young, healthy, and cheap. The salary cap has remained the same with less than 2% increase per year over the last three years and looks to remain stagnant until 2015. The TV revenue doubles in 2014, and while the owners will see that increase in cash flow, the players (salary cap) won't see it until 2015 because each year's salary cap is figured on the final numbers from the PREVIOUS league year's revenue.

The point? Simply put, there isn't any money to go around and it will be a buyers market from here on out. It will be much more economic to go with younger players than to continue to give veteran players money they are worth- perceived or actual. Once the draft is concluded, watch the amount of veteran players who are released. The end result will see many teams signing numerous veterans for very cheap 1-3 year deals.

The market has dried up. There just isn't money to go around. Sure, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and Peyton and Tom and Joe will get $20+ million annually, but the middle class will suffer for it. Good veteran players will be forced to choose between early retirement or playing for substantially less money. In the old CBA, this was what would happen to players in their mid to late 30's with maybe a year or two left-- their ego would have to accept that their market value isn't what they thought. All of the deals drafted under the previous CBA were built under the assumption that the salary cap would increase 6 to 9 million per year-- as it had every year since it's inception 20 or so year ago.

The age has changed. Unless you are 28 or younger, you are no longer getting big money. Hell, you are no longer getting what you are worth. That's why we see players with name recognition linger on the market. Can we guess what it means that Charles Woodson, Nnamdi, Freeney, Harrison, on down the line aren't signing contracts? Sure-- it means slowly but surely, their asking price is going down. They are beginning to reconcile the fact that 1) they have very little market value; 2) the market is flooded; and 3) with the draft looming, there will be less market value and less job openings come May.

The Saints do not have very much cap space to work with. Guess what, most teams are in the same boat. If the remaining 300 or so free agents want a job, they will have to sign for not much over minimum. For a team with needs to fill and very little cap space, this is the perfect remedy. For a fan wanting to know "why haven't we signed this position or that player", the answer is that at this moment your unsigned veteran's price is dropping.

In summation, stay patient. The Saints will be able to add a handful more quality veteran players who will improve their depth, fill a starting role or two, all for a bargain rack price.

This has been discussed for a while, and as I wrote some time ago, I don't see labor peace for ten years with the current structure, no matter what was signed.

If you think things are bad just wait until a couple of years, when the good rookie quarterbacks are producing and earning peanuts, a lot of veterans are out of the league for economic reasons, and with a chance of quality of the game diminishing because of so many young players who would be backups thrown to starting positions.

It is going to look really bad when the new TV contracts are renewed and the cap does not go up in proportion.

And the breach between have and have-nots is even going to increase, the agents of Kaepernick and Wilson, will ask not only for future money, but trying to regain years of underpayment.

The current model is not working and a quick solution has to be found. I am thinking the easiest way is the "amnesty" model of the MLS where you can get a contract (or more outside of the cap).

My idea will be "reversed" franchise tag, in which you can pick one contract every 5 years that you can keep out of the cap. If you pick one that will last only a couple of years, it's your problem.

Just think about it, that will release around 10-15 million (considering the highest contract per team), even teams with no quarterbacks could picke Darrell Revis' or Mario Williams' contract, and also will allow the teams to sign players and keep them for a longer term.

 

[Saint_Ward]

What kirwin was getting at is free agency has gone from 3 distinct phases to two
Phase one was big money week. Phase two was mid level conracts. Phase three was bottom of roster or old vet with a year left type.

Essentially, phase two mingled with phase one -- superstars, budding players, and probowl productive vet. Whats leftover is all bargain bin with no more middle ground and the veteran pool will be deeper and younger due to flat cap

So yes, it is similar to most years, the difference is the volume and quality of veterans now and soon to be available who would not have been at risk nor so devalued under previous cba

I think we're still in phase 2. I'd call a guy like Lofton a phase 2 guy, and we signed him last year on March 25th. I think this is typical media hyperbole, but what's different is that the Dumerville fiasco created a log jam for the pass rushers. He wasn't supposed to be available, so now the Ravens and other teams are waiting to see how that moves. Also, Freeney is waiting to see what Denver does before he signs with them or elsewhere.

So, because of Elvis.. we're waiting on Osi, Freeney, Harrison, and Abraham. The other knock is that the other guys are all a bit old. Osi is the only one still "young enough".

Now, Urlacher hasn't been on the market long. He's got to ask himself how much he still wants to play and what he'd settle for. That's a retirement issue. Then you also got guys like Shanle, who may have to settle for a backup role. When you are at that stage, either someone will bite or they'd rather draft a kid they could potentially have for 10 years, vs a solid vet for 3.

Ellis really must have looked bad on tape that no one is even talking to him (publicly), or he's thinking he's worth a LOT more.

I think Victor Butler is also a part of that Dumerville logjam, but we may just sign him anyway if there is an agreement on value.

The OT market is a bit weird. I understand the other LT's being slow, since they all have either injury, age, or weight issues. But why is Sebastion not signed? Is he really just waiting on the Pats or what? Not sure if there is a huge RT market out there, but he's a very good player. That's another tier 2 or boarderline tier 1 guy.. so very perplexing.

So, I just think Kirwin is premature in his talk about 2 phases, vs 3 phases. We're just starting phase 2 now. Now, when the draft hits, we can probably look back at this and see if the players were or weren't shafted.

 

[Taurus]

I hate typing on the computer and responding in threads on a forum. I even hate sitting in front of a computer. I even hate typing this message.

 

[Saintshizzle]

:00000696:

 

[St. PJ]

The ot and de markets are "weird" because the draft is deep at those positions and the market is flooded. Teams arent willing to pay yesteryear's premium because in conjuction with flood there exist an aridity of cap space

 

[SAINTSFAN]

Wow, the Bears got DJ Williams for a base salary of $900,000 plus incentives-

D.J. Williams signs with Chicago Bears - source - ESPN Chicago

Prices sure have come down quickly for these on the market.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Wow, the Bears got DJ Williams for a base salary of $900,000 plus incentives-

D.J. Williams signs with Chicago Bears - source - ESPN Chicago

Prices sure have come down quickly for these on the market.

Well, yeah, but this has a LOT more to do with it than any of this 2 phase vs 3 phase discussion.

He appeared in just seven games last season with one start after being suspended nine games by the NFL for two separate incidents. He was suspended the first six games of the 2012 season for violating the league's banned-substances policy after the league said he supplied a "non-human" urine sample during a drug test.