The Chickens are coming home to roost (1 Viewer)

[SoggyBottomBoy]

A Number of things I'd like to note as it revolves around yesterday's loss.

1) ...
... 12)

First, the game wasn't yesterday.
#4 We all know why Nicks was still around in the 5th. You make it sound like Nicks and Evans are the norm for guards. Peat may have been picked a tad high, but that shot was below the belt.


The rest I'm in general agreement. But I'm with SaintJ and I feel good about the direction this club is going. Not saying I'm blind to our shortcomings and blunders, but I really anticipated a bigger, longer lasting fall from grace.

 

[mr.t]

Peyton needs to quit calling plays also.

 

[DavidM]

Really well done.

Now consider that record of decision making without a Brees on the roster. Pair that with a mediocre QB, maybe a Matt Schaub, and then think what Sundays look like.

Except it's skewed towards some things that didn't work out, and some observations that are purely subjective.

What about taking Colston in the 7th?

Pierre Thomas, Willie Snead, Lance Moore, and a slew of other gems who ended up here under the radar, and have gone on to make contributions?

Terron Armstead looks every bit the genius move as some of the misses look like a fool's roll of the dice. The Jimmy Graham trade looks very much like a savvy trade to cash out nicely before the stock falls.

Breaux will be sorely missed while he rehabs.

Then there's all the more mundane of personnel decisions that are the bedrock of team management that don't raise eyebrows either way. Between the booms and the busts are the bulk of any roster.

Mostly what I can gather is that this front office has had hits and misses - which is true across the league. Every team is trying to outplay their blunders and their weaknesses.

Ultimately winning is what they get judged on and the last couple of seasons were disappointing, and understandably shine light on the shortcomings, but prior to 2014, the Saints leadership was commonly regarded as among the league's best.

 

[reason2believe]

A Number of things I'd like to note as it revolves around yesterday's loss.



1) When Delvin Breaux got hurt his immediate replacement was an UDFA Rookie. Let that sink in. As recently as 2014 we spent a 2nd rounder on a CB(3rd/5th in 2015) and signed at least 3 to contracts yet were still down to UDFA's as immediate replacements.

2) Jairus Byrd = 10mil Cap Hit
Cam Jordan = 5mil Cap Hit
$15 Million Dollars = 5 Tckls and 0 impact plays between them.

3) CJ Spiller = 4mil Cap HIt = inactive because of a #'s game. Returning Kickoffs is something he's excelled at throughout his career and yet we collectively hold our breaths as Murphy receives a kick or punt for the 2nd year in a row.

4) We used the 13th draft pick on a starting LG. Carl Nicks was a 5th rounder

5) Our 31st pick from a year ago Stephone Anthony played less snaps than a waiver wire request in 2015 in Michael Mauti.

6) We used a 2nd round pick on a passrusher with 2 ACL injuries who is out with a 3rd ACL injury.

7) We have $35 million in dead money. Only 1 of those players is currently on the team. Jahri Evans. That equates to 8 different players we no longer have on the team that could have been of use in Sunday's game.

8) John Jenkins all 6'3 350 lbs of him got single blocked by a Center on top of picking the wrong gap that lead to a 70yd TD. A man that's 350lbs who we drafted using a 3rd round pick to be a NT to tie up 2 blockers got single blocked 3 yds off the ball. Let that sink in.

9) Since 2006 we've used 7 draft picks on WR's. Of those 7 only 2 were high draft picks Cooks/Meachem. The rest were lower round picks and yet we've been a top 5-10 passing offense for much of the decade. In that same span we've used 3 draft picks on RB's. Two 1st' and a 4th. 1 of them was a satellite back and the other Ingram. During this 10 year span we haven't had a single 1000 yard rusher and every year we look to improve the running game. Does it not seem like the RB position may be harder to hit on than WR for us and more important thus the need to be looking at RB talent much closer? I mean we kept 6 RB's for christ sakes..........utterly no reason for that.

10) We have 6 RBs on the roster meanwhile only 5 DBs but we are a passing team

11) Wonder if players that would have been taken with the 1st and 2nd rounder from the Bounty debacle would have helped?

12) Since 2012 alone we've made a ton of FA acquisitions/Drafts/ Player transactions. Curtis Lofton, David Hawthorne, Will Herring, Erik Lorig, Corey White, Akiem Hicks, Champ Bailey, Brandon Browner, Jairus Byrd, CJ Spiller, Ben Grubbs, Brodrick Bunkley, Chris Chamberlain, Barrett Rudd, Nick Toon, Andrew Tiller (Still in league) Marcel Jones, Tyrunn Walker, Keenan Lewis, Benjamin Watson, Victor Butler, Rufus Johnson, Kenny Stills, Rafael Bush, Stanley Jean Baptiste, Khari Fortt, Ronald Powell, Tavon Rooks, Vinnie Sunseri, Dannel Ellerbe, Davis Tull, Stephone Anthony, Damian Swann.

I'm not going to even add these guys up but these players are either no longer on the team, under performing, or partaking in roles that don't fit justify their draft position. That's a lot of high profile misses in a 3-4 year span. Bad FA signings, bad resignings, bad draft picks, bad cuts...you name it....its all been bad.




So while we sit here and debate over whether it was the missed field goal, the int, the injury to Breaux, or the refs that cost us Sunday's game the truth is our problems started way before the clock started from 15:00 in the 1st Q of Sundays game.

You are right. We simply don't have the talent. And what talent we do have, we don't use it properly. I agree.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Both Tull and Kikaha were drafted to be 3-4 players. It's not really fair to classify them as busts when they were likely not a good fit for the current scheme. The stability we've shown on offense allows players to work on fine tuning and fitting in. Defense has been precisely the opposite. Having said all that I am in the camp that suspects Johnsob and Vitt may also be part of the problem.

I can argue that Tull and Kikaha can be classified as bust easily...both for separate reasons. Kikaha two fold. We didn't draft for a 3-4 last year. We drafted for a 4-3 with a hybrid Sam LB. We know this because Davison came in that same draft and he wasn't a 3-4 NT by a stretch and was a prototype 4-3 DT/NT in the Bunkley Mold. Kikaha we misdiagnosed his ability to play SAM LB...both he and Tull. We also misdiagnosed the fact that the percentage he would tear an ACL again was crazy high and we used a 2nd rounder on that player. We attempted to supplement the pick by drafting a Tull...a Sparq freak in hopes that 1 would pan out but we kinda missed on both. Kikaha can come back healthy but the chances he pulls a Thomas Davis are slim. Only thing that keeps 2015's quest from at getting a passrusher from being a complete waste is that we got Gwachum as a waiver wire claim and the slight possibility that kikaha could return.

Do you think Loomis is not working with Payton and giving Payton what he wants?

Payton ran off GW, hired Spags, hired Ryan. His consent has to be on a lot of these decisions. This is his team the same way before it was Haslett's team under Loomis.

If you remain a Sean Payton fan, then he needs a boss because he's got too much on his plate in the way Mora had too much on his plate after Finks died, and he has proven he is not nearly as skilled working the defense and the running game as his is working with Brees.

FWIW that's exactly what Ireland was brought in for and I'll have to give him a pass if Last Years draft doesn't pan out to be epic because he was late to the party and mostly had to go off the scouting done by a now completely remolded crew. How's Ryan pace doing in Chicago by the way?

So far...this years Draft looks to be MONEY. Bell is still a question mark and Rankins has to get back from an Injury but off first glances all the picks should probably make next years 53 too.

First, the game wasn't yesterday.
#4 We all know why Nicks was still around in the 5th. You make it sound like Nicks and Evans are the norm for guards. Peat may have been picked a tad high, but that shot was below the belt.


The rest I'm in general agreement. But I'm with SaintJ and I feel good about the direction this club is going. Not saying I'm blind to our shortcomings and blunders, but I really anticipated a bigger, longer lasting fall from grace.

I like our prospects too and didn't mean to come off as wanting SP to be replaced. Yet the reason Peat gets the mention is because you ultimately drafted him to be a RT which if that was your original plan its possible that's a miss. Peat still has time but as of now if the original vision was a T that's a miss...just not a bad one. Same for Anthony if MLB was the initial vision.

Other than that I do think we are in prime position to make some noise going forward...it's just this year will require a good deal of luck because we are so thin.

 

[Westbank4Life]

yes ...an overall systemic failure. No one can really finger one component b/c there are so many variables which lead to this.

and more yes....The ROI on the "main cog replacement" FA's over the past few years was a total loss.

The company is now practically bankrupt on its last leg trying to stay open now.

If sean can pull off a SB within the next few years here, he's got to go down as one of the greatest of all time.

What Coughlin dealt with in between his 2 SB's will pale in comparison to this feat.

 

[reason2believe]

All true.

But for all that, I like where the organization is headed, and remain a strong Sean Payton fan.

However, I have considered that it may be time to revise the front office -- something is not working. You can't really just promote Loomis and bring in a new GM, because Lauscha's the president already. And I am not sure that we would fire Loomis under almost any circumstances -- Tom Benson is very loyal to people who show loyalty to him, and somehow we've managed to never lose 10 games in a season since 2005.

I am willing to see where this now-younger team is at the end of the year, hopefully with a healthy Breaux and Rankins, and no more snake-bite in the secondary -- our top four CBs in April are all now out: Breaux, Lewis, Wilson and Swann. That's too much for almost any organization to replace in training camp. With five minutes left in the third quarter, before Breaux got hurt, we were up 24-10 and playing pretty good defense. I want to see how this plays out.

What is wrong with the current situation and direction, is that Sean Payton is making irrational, quick moves that are trending towards reckless.

Who chooses two kickers to battle in camp and preseason, awards one of them the winner, and the week leading to the regular season cut him for an undrafted rookie after one workout? Nothing against the kicker himself, or his ability, but there is a serious issue with that method. First, you are saying that you are "giving" this new guy the keys to the cadillac, without ever proving himself to his teammates, coaches, etc. He didn't have to earn anything. That is a horrible message.

You are choosing to bench a high profile free agent in Spiller, who we all are starting to see that he may be re-capturing his old game-breaking form, for a guy that should not even be on the team in Cadet.

SP is sending the wrong messages. He is tinkering with stuff that he shouldn't be. I think he is getting very desperate. Even though he has an owner and GM that aren't going to get rid of him, he is coaching like he is on the hot seat.

While there is reason to hope for the young talent on this team, and the future, the present is looking awfully bad. Why would you allow for such uncertainty in so many parts of the team with your aging HOF QB wasting MVP like games and seasons.

The kicker decision alone is a message that says, hey, I know we have a HOF QB playing at an MVP level, but we are going to go ahead and leave our games up to an undrafted rookie who will take some time to settle into a career and learn the ropes. And at the same time, tell us, and the kicker, that he will be here a long time. What? Who goes out and tells a player he is here of the long haul? He hasn't earned anything yet, but he is untouchable. Wow. Let that sink in.

 

[reason2believe]

Payton is a good coach. I like Payton the coach. I hate Payton the GM. And yes in my opinion he is the defacto GM of the Saints. He may not be pulling the trigger on 6th round picks but he is heavily involved in rounds 1-3 and the free agents we are signing.

Agreed. SP is the GM.

 

[DavidM]

What is wrong with the current situation and direction, is that Sean Payton is making irrational, quick moves that are trending towards reckless.

Who chooses two kickers to battle in camp and preseason, awards one of them the winner, and the week leading to the regular season cut him for an undrafted rookie after one workout? Nothing against the kicker himself, or his ability, but there is a serious issue with that method. First, you are saying that you are "giving" this new guy the keys to the cadillac, without ever proving himself to his teammates, coaches, etc. He didn't have to earn anything. That is a horrible message.

Other fans have picked up on this same observation but I disagree with it. He let two kickers compete but that doesn't mean he was enamored with either one of them. It just means that they were the two best available at the time. (Forbath was not terribly popular among fans last season, either.)

Lutz became available, they tried him out, and obviously reached the conclusion that they liked his potential over what they already knew of Forbath. That's bold, perhaps, but I don't agree that it is reckless. If Lutz doesn't work out, there will be kickers like Forbath sitting out there - maybe even Forbath, himself.

 

[willkro]

I have to agree with nearly everything, except we lost 2 number 2s on bounty gate. Not a one and two

 

[IceHot]

Some good points but some of that is all in how you spin it...

1) When Delvin Breaux got hurt his immediate replacement was an UDFA Rookie. Let that sink in. As recently as 2014 we spent a 2nd rounder on a CB(3rd/5th in 2015) and signed at least 3 to contracts yet were still down to UDFA's as immediate replacements.

Replacing a UDFA with a UDFA seems fair.

2) Jairus Byrd = 10mil Cap Hit
Cam Jordan = 5mil Cap Hit
$15 Million Dollars = 5 Tckls and 0 impact plays between them.

Drew Brees cap hit is $17mil and has enough impact plays to make up for the 3 of them.

3) CJ Spiller = 4mil Cap HIt = inactive because of a #'s game. Returning Kickoffs is something he's excelled at throughout his career and yet we collectively hold our breaths as Murphy receives a kick or punt for the 2nd year in a row.

Ive got nothing...well except the consolation that Lasco is solid on special teams.

4) We used the 13th draft pick on a starting LG. Carl Nicks was a 5th rounder

In that same draft where we got Carl Nicks we got Sedrick Ellis with the 7th pick. Ill take Peat over Ellis.

5) Our 31st pick from a year ago Stephone Anthony played less snaps than a waiver wire request in 2015 in Michael Mauti.

So far this season.

6) We used a 2nd round pick on a passrusher with 2 ACL injuries who is out with a 3rd ACL injury.

The Cowboys were praised for drafting a guy in the 2nd round this year that they knew would be on IR this season. Myles Jack with a questionable knee was picked 2 picks later. Seems like a drafting trend for Linebackers in the 2nd round. Of course we could be drafting Reggie Raglands in the 2nd round instead....oh wait he is missing the 2016 season too.

7) We have $35 million in dead money. Only 1 of those players is currently on the team. Jahri Evans. That equates to 8 different players we no longer have on the team that could have been of use in Sunday's game.

Isnt that why they call it DEAD Benjamins

8) John Jenkins all 6'3 350 lbs of him got single blocked by a Center on top of picking the wrong gap that lead to a 70yd TD. A man that's 350lbs who we drafted using a 3rd round pick to be a NT to tie up 2 blockers got single blocked 3 yds off the ball. Let that sink in.

Good thing we took Terron Armstead first in that same round. John Jenkins is at least on a team Damontre Moore the next Down Lineman picked in that draft isnt.

9) Since 2006 we've used 7 draft picks on WR's. Of those 7 only 2 were high draft picks Cooks/Meachem. The rest were lower round picks and yet we've been a top 5-10 passing offense for much of the decade. In that same span we've used 3 draft picks on RB's. Two 1st' and a 4th. 1 of them was a satellite back and the other Ingram. During this 10 year span we haven't had a single 1000 yard rusher and every year we look to improve the running game. Does it not seem like the RB position may be harder to hit on than WR for us and more important thus the need to be looking at RB talent much closer? I mean we kept 6 RB's for christ sakes..........utterly no reason for that.

10) We have 6 RBs on the roster meanwhile only 5 DBs but we are a passing team

I also have No explanation

11) Wonder if players that would have been taken with the 1st and 2nd rounder from the Bounty debacle would have helped?

Probably not as you probably noticed draft picks are crap shoots

12) Since 2012 alone we've made a ton of FA acquisitions/Drafts/ Player transactions. Curtis Lofton, David Hawthorne, Will Herring, Erik Lorig, Corey White, Akiem Hicks, Champ Bailey, Brandon Browner, Jairus Byrd, CJ Spiller, Ben Grubbs, Brodrick Bunkley, Chris Chamberlain, Barrett Rudd, Nick Toon, Andrew Tiller (Still in league) Marcel Jones, Tyrunn Walker, Keenan Lewis, Benjamin Watson, Victor Butler, Rufus Johnson, Kenny Stills, Rafael Bush, Stanley Jean Baptiste, Khari Fortt, Ronald Powell, Tavon Rooks, Vinnie Sunseri, Dannel Ellerbe, Davis Tull, Stephone Anthony, Damian Swann.

I'm not going to even add these guys up but these players are either no longer on the team, under performing, or partaking in roles that don't fit justify their draft position. That's a lot of high profile misses in a 3-4 year span. Bad FA signings, bad resignings, bad draft picks, bad cuts...you name it....its all been bad.

We made more roster moves then that last season alone.

It hasnt all been bad: Ben Watson played well for us, so did Keenan, Unger, Snead, and Breaux. Hightower has been a good reclamation project. Cutting ways with Belt-Man seemed smart. Fairley and Craig Robertson still seem decent lets see.

The Raiders were picked by a lot of analysts to be an AFC Playoff contender this season and we lost by one point that was 6-inches wide, can we wait to see if next week is any better.

 

[reason2believe]

Other fans have picked up on this same observation but I disagree with it. He let two kickers compete but that doesn't mean he was enamored with either one of them. It just means that they were the two best available at the time. (Forbath was not terribly popular among fans last season, either.)

Lutz became available, they tried him out, and obviously reached the conclusion that they liked his potential over what they already knew of Forbath. That's bold, perhaps, but I don't agree that it is reckless. If Lutz doesn't work out, there will be kickers like Forbath sitting out there - maybe even Forbath, himself.

But the regular season is not the time to try out a kicker, and be dropping and picking up another. And I don't like the message. You let players win jobs, and you award them with the job. Lutz didn't earn anything. I understand the potential, and I like the idea of a guy who "may" become a long-term solution, but it's not being handled correctly. It matters how you do things; you either build character, loyalty, reliability etc with your players, or you don't. And it matters.

 

[blackadder]

Except it's skewed towards some things that didn't work out, and some observations that are purely subjective.

What about taking Colston in the 7th?

Pierre Thomas, Willie Snead, Lance Moore, and a slew of other gems who ended up here under the radar, and have gone on to make contributions?

Terron Armstead looks every bit the genius move as some of the misses look like a fool's roll of the dice. The Jimmy Graham trade looks very much like a savvy trade to cash out nicely before the stock falls.

Breaux will be sorely missed while he rehabs.

Then there's all the more mundane of personnel decisions that are the bedrock of team management that don't raise eyebrows either way. Between the booms and the busts are the bulk of any roster.

Mostly what I can gather is that this front office has had hits and misses - which is true across the league. Every team is trying to outplay their blunders and their weaknesses.

Ultimately winning is what they get judged on and the last couple of seasons were disappointing, and understandably shine light on the shortcomings, but prior to 2014, the Saints leadership was commonly regarded as among the league's best.

The things that failed have a recency bias for sure.

Most of the positives you pointed out were decisions and acquisitions pre 2009. Since then the gaffes naturally skew from 2010 forward with a few exceptions.

It's literally night and day and can be in part tied back to bad DC hires and vacillation on scheme and the disruption that caused to personnel acquisition. But did you not foresee that?

Throw in the bounty BS, the turmoil in Payton's personal life for a bit. I'm on the side that another heavy figure is needed in the org above Payton and Loomis. If that's Ireland great but not sure the relationship is one where he trully challenges Payton and Loomis or owns any decisions. Seemd like he was brought in to be a scouting voice Payton can trust to then make decisions from the info Ireland presents.

 

[blackadder]

But the regular season is not the time to try out a kicker, and be dropping and picking up another. And I don't like the message. You let players win jobs, and you award them with the job. Lutz didn't earn anything. I understand the potential, and I like the idea of a guy who "may" become a long-term solution, but it's not being handled correctly. It matters how you do things; you either build character, loyalty, reliability etc with your players, or you don't. And it matters.

Agree.

That's the rub.

You got Lutz on the PS. Work with him first. Seems on the reckless side to just throw him in to the fire.

Sometimes that works, but confidence is key in a kicker. But then if he crumbles you know pretty quickly, at a cost of further undermining your own credibility as a decision maker.

 

[Krodwhodat]

Amazing the attitude difference between 1-0 and 0-1. I'm not going to deny that we've made some bad player decision but I'm also a long time saints fan who new after winning the super bowl fans would settle for nothing less than multiple playoff appearance year after year. The patriots are an enigma. The fact that our bad years consist of 7-9 are actually pretty amazing when you look at the NFL over the past 10 years. There aren't to many teams that make the playoffs year after year. I think we have a great coach and front office. We took some flyers on players that some worked and some didn't. We never remember the ones that worked but we never forget the ones that didn't. 06 and 09 were full of misfit toys that worked. If that 61 yard fg is 2 feet to the right Payton is a genius. We will be fine


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