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The Crossroads Draft Class
By Mike Detillier
The 2015 NFL draft is less than one week away. There has been great speculation on who and what positions the New Orleans Saints will go after this coming week, but one thing I do know that if the Saints don’t get better on defense they will be staring at another 7-9 or 8-8 season in 2015.
Last season, with Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, Marques Colston, Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks, Khiry Robinson, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram in the lineup, the Saints were a 7-9 football team.
The Saints totaled the most yards and most yards per game in the NFL in 2014.
For all the offensive firepower the Saints lost in the most important statistic in football. They again were in the minus column in the giveaway/takeaway ratio. The Saints were a minus 13 in this most important category and in the Sean Payton-era, for all their success on the field, they have only been in the plus column in this category twice.
The Saints were a plus 11 in the giveaway/takeaway ration in 2009, the same year they won the Super Bowl and in 2012 they were a plus 2. That year Payton did not coach the team.
In the Sean Payton timeframe in New Orleans, and I will include the 2012 season, the Saints have been a combined minus 24 in the giveaway/takeaway ratio. From 2006-2014 the New England Patriots have been in the plus category in the giveaway/takeaway part of the game every year and they are a whopping plus 124 in that timeframe. That number has to change by getting better in the trenches against the run, rushing the quarterback better and coming up with turnovers.
The Saints have gotten better at the cornerback position this off-season in signing veteran cornerback Brandon Browner and landing the top cornerback in the Canadian Football League in Delvin Breaux. That spot still needs some depth, but the Saints are far better today at cornerback than when they ended the 2014 season.
When healthy inside linebacker Dannell Ellerbe is a solid starting performer and the Saints also picked up two possible contributors in former Dallas Cowboys outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and a nickel/dime cornerback in Kyle Wilson. But even with those additions the bottom line is that Saints need to use three of their top four draft choices on defense.
The Saints do not have a signature pass rusher at outside linebacker and both defensive ends Cameron Jordan and Akiem Hicks are free agents after the 2015 NFL season. Jordan was an outstanding football player for the Black and Gold in 2013, but many times last season he was just an above average NFL starter. Hicks is the ultimate “potential” player every season. He flashes it, but Hicks has just not been a very consistent performer.
Nosetackle John Jenkins was a very good player as a rookie in 2013, but last season fighting off an injury, he was heavy and played rather average. Brodrick Bunkley has been solid in the middle, but he has a hefty price tag and he has missed time due to injuries. This team needs to get better in the defensive trenches and find a way to influence a quarterback late in a game.
How many times last season did even average quarterbacks pick on this defense late in a game. The Saints got very little football “heat” on the opposing signal-caller. Time after time the Saints just needed one key stop, one key turnover, one key sack and couldn’t come up with it.
The Saints need to come out of this draft class with a starter at outside linebacker and another starter along the defensive line.
Another need spot is at inside linebacker. David Hawthorne is a solid starter, but what this team needs is a big physical presence in the middle to team up with Hawthorne inside. Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has consistently preached that the Saints have to be able to stop the run better and that means having strong play at defensive tackle and at the inside linebacker slots.
The hope for the Saints is that one of the top pass rushers fall through the cracks at the thirteenth overall pick. Right now the best bet would be either Missouri defensive end Shane Ray or Nebraska’s troubled, but talented pass rush ace Randy Gregory.
I am a big Shane Ray fan and a month ago I didn’t think there was much of a chance he could fall to the 13th spot. Today, that door is slightly open. And when you watch him play he is like the “Tasmanian Devil” and just never quits on a play. But it is no sure thing he lasts that long.
With that said, don’t be surprised to see the Saints try and maneuver up in the draft to grab either Clemson’s Vic Beasley or Kentucky’s Alvin “Bud” Dupree. Both players are projected to be top-10 selections. There are no certain things on draft day, but I do know that pass rushers are a premium spot to upgrade for most teams. While Florida’s Dante Fowler will be long gone, the one spot the Saints might target to move up to would be the 7th spot currently owned by the Chicago Bears. That spot would give them a shot at either Beasley, Dupree or even Shane Ray.
At 31, I would love to see the Saints land a defensive lineman like Florida State’s Eddie Goldman, but if they go offense watch for Ohio State speedster wide receiver Devin Smith.
I am a big fan of Clemson inside linebacker Stephone Anthony and he would be an excellent fit for the Saints in Round 2.
Watch for the Saints to be aggressive in the three day draft period. They have been busy all off-season maneuvering around a roster that has gotten a bit old in different areas and it is obvious the stripping of 2 second round draft choices due to the Bountygate issue, trading a first and second round pick for halfback Mark Ingram and trading a third round pick away last season to maneuver up to acquire Brandin Cooks has taken away some valuable draft choices.
And last year, other than Cooks, the Saints basically whiffed on acquiring young personnel to upgrade their football team.
Right now the Saints have nine draft choices and they need help at outside linebacker, defensive end, inside linebacker, wide receiver, tight end, depth along the offensive line and at cornerback.
It is the most critical draft since the 2006 draft by Sean Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis. They hit a grandslam that year in landing Reggie Bush, Roman Harper, Jahri Evans, Marques Colston, Zach Strief and Rob Ninkovich (even though he made it with the New England Patriots and not the Saints).
They also acquired starting offensive center Jeff Faine and defensive tackle Hollis Thomas via draft day deals.
That has to happen again for the Saints in 2015. It is indeed the crossroads draft for this franchise.
Saints at #31
As I have written above the New Orleans Saints need to get better on the defensive side of the ball, but if there is an offensive pick with one of the top three picks for the Black and Gold I think it may well happen at 31.
If Florida State defensive tackle Eddie Goldman is there at 31 he would be hard to pass on. The 6-4, 330 pound Goldman has played defensive end, defensive tackle and noseguard for the Seminoles. Goldman is a top-tier run stuffer and he collected 35 tackles, 8 tackles for losses and 4 quarterback sacks in 2014.
While Goldman will never be a top-flight interior pass rusher he is someone who is very gifted athletically for a big man, tough in run support, he can collapse the inside blocking pocket of a quarterback and blow up a quarterback’s launch pad.
One offensive player to keep in mind with the 31st overall pick is Ohio State wide receiver Devin Smith.
The 6-0, 195 pound speedster caught 33 passes for 931 yards, averaged an eye-popping 28.2 yards per catch and scored 12 touchdowns for the Buckeyes in 2014.
Smith, who was the state of Ohio long-jump champion, was also a qualifier for the state championship in the high jump and was a part of the 4x200 meter relay team. He ran a (4.42) 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine and posted a 39-inch vertical leap.
The fleet-footed Smith is still a bit rough around the edges as a route runner, but he has good hands, adjusts his body very well to poorly thrown passes and he is a physical player fighting for the ball in flight. Smith has also been used on the Buckeyes special teams as a “gunner”.
His deep threat skills could really be something on the fast turf in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Smith during his four-year college career at Ohio State caught 121 passes, 30 of those catches went for touchdowns and he averaged 20.7 yards per catch. If you pick Smith at 31 the Saints would just have to sweat it out that Clemson inside linebacker Stephone Anthony would be there early in Round 2.
Mike D's 1st Round Projections
1. Tampa Bay Bucs, Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2. Tennessee Titans, Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3. Jacksonville Jaguars, Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
4. Oakland Raiders, Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5. Washington Redskins, Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
6. New York Jets, Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7. Chicago Bears, Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
8. Atlanta Falcons, Alvin "Bud" Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
9. New York Giants, Brandon Scherff, OG/OT, Iowa
10. St. Louis Rams, DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11. Minnesota Vikings, Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12. Cleveland Browns, Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13. New Orleans Saints, Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
14. Miami Dolphins, Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
15. San Francisco 49ers, Malcolm Brown, DT, Texas
16. Houston Texans, Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
17. San Diego Chargers, La'el Collins, OT, LSU
18. Kansas City Chiefs, Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
19. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo), D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
20. Philadelphia Eagles, Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
21. Cincinnati Bengals, Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
22. Pittsburgh Steelers, Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
23. Detroit Lions, Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
24. Arizona Cardinals, Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
25. Carolina Panthers, Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Fla.)
26. Baltimore Ravens, Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami (Fla.)
27. Dallas Cowboys, Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
28. Denver Broncos, Cameron Erving, OG/OC, Florida State
29. Indianapolis Colts, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA
30. Green Bay Packers, Eric Kendricks, MLB, UCLA
31. New Orleans Saints (from Seattle), Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
32. New England Patriots, Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
Early 2nd round Projections
33. Tennessee Titans, Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
34. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
35. Oakland Raiders, Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
36. Jacksonville Jaguars, Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
37. New York Jets, Denzel Perriman, ILB, Miami (Fla.)
38. Washington Redskins, Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
39. Chicago Bears, Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor
40. New York Giants, Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri/Oklahoma
41. St. Louis Rams, Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
42. Atlanta Falcons, Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska
43. Cleveland Browns, Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
44. New Orleans Saints, Stephone Anthony, ILB, Clemson
Follow Mike on Twitter at @MikeDetillier