The Investment Thread (10 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

That moment USA postpones tariffs with China, you are sitting heavy in a 3x gold leverage ETF and on a 6 hour plane ride with broken wifi. Just gave back almost all profit the last two months. Looks like it finally found a floor to bounce off so there is that.

On the bright side, if someone told me Gold would be sitting around $1500 with delayed tariffs a few weeks ago would have been shocked.

That’s what you get for going to Alaska

 

[bclemms]

That’s what you get for going to Alaska

It's ok though, when gold hit $1490 I pushed really big in. Going g to make it back and more today.

But yeah, gold was testing new highs near $1530 when wifi goes out. Land a couple hours later and it's near $1490.

 

[superchuck500]

By the way, here's a pretty decent explanation of how leveraged ETFs have "decay" and can lose value over time even when the underlying asset hasn't lost value.

Value At Risk In GLD, GDX And NUGT

We graphically demonstrate the time decay in a triple leveraged ETF. We discuss the volatility and risk in GLD, GDX and NUGT. We introduce a simple approach to

seekingalpha.com

 

[bclemms]

By the way, here's a pretty decent explanation of how leveraged ETFs have "decay" and can lose value over time even when the underlying asset hasn't lost value.

Value At Risk In GLD, GDX And NUGT

We graphically demonstrate the time decay in a triple leveraged ETF. We discuss the volatility and risk in GLD, GDX and NUGT. We introduce a simple approach to

seekingalpha.com

Yeah, it's why I'm long on gold but constantly buying and selling the run up with the leveraged ETF.

Should have known something was up yesterday when gold was down .1% but the leveraged ETF was down 3.5% when it has been tracking spot prices almost perfectly for months. Wreaks of insider trading.

 

[superchuck500]

Yeah, it's why I'm long on gold but constantly buying and selling the run up with the leveraged ETF.

Should have known something was up yesterday when gold was down .1% but the leveraged ETF was down 3.5% when it has been tracking spot prices almost perfectly for months. Wreaks of insider trading.

The price dynamics can be independent when there's a volume discrepancy. If gold is in a steady but undramatic move, the 3x can track on similar S/D dynamics. The thing that was a signal yesterday was gold not only not moving up when the market was selling off, but moving down slightly.

If you're in 3x - which is a short-term play - and you're in a market situation where you would expect to see a run on the underlying asset, but you don't see it . . . that's an alarm to astute traders, triggering sell volume that's substantially more than the sell volume on the long gold positions that don't have the same near-term risk. That makes perfect sense and isn't really anything inappropriate.

 

[bclemms]

The price dynamics can be independent when there's a volume discrepancy. If gold is in a steady but undramatic move, the 3x can track on similar S/D dynamics. The thing that was a signal yesterday was gold not only not moving up when the market was selling off, but moving down slightly.

If you're in 3x - which is a short-term play - and you're in a market situation where you would expect to see a run on the underlying asset, but you don't see it . . . that's an alarm to astute traders, triggering sell volume that's substantially more than the sell volume on the long gold positions that don't have the same near-term risk. That makes perfect sense and isn't really anything inappropriate.

I dont know, was a really big decoupling yesterday just before market close. I understand decoupling can happen and why but the timing and size was suspect.

There is no way Trump and friends arent laughing all the way to the bank every time he tweets something. I mean, you got to know it's happening and what a better play than leveraged gold in the current environment?

 

[bclemms]

And just like that, in the green today.

 

[efil4stnias]

YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury dipped below the yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury for the first time since 2005. An inversion has preceded the last seven recessions in the U.S.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[superchuck500]

YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury dipped below the yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury for the first time since 2005. An inversion has preceded the last seven recessions in the U.S.

finance.yahoo.com

This is going to be an interesting episode of human behavior. Yield curve inversion and recession . . . chicken/egg?

 

[efil4stnias]

This is going to be an interesting episode of human behavior. Yield curve inversion and recession . . . chicken/egg?

that was the convo this am on CNBC. Correlation or causation?

one guest said we are in the 9th inning ( top ) of the market cycle, and gave 50/50 shot of recession in next 12 mo. Said the issue is at the fed. They are handcuffed with Trump policy ( reducing rates ) vs staving off inflationary and recessionary pressures - something to that effect.

Greenspan says 'there is no barrier' to negative yields in the US

Alan Greenspan said nothing is stopping the U.S. from getting sucked into the global trend of negative yielding debt, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

www.cnbc.com

Interesting part above...Fed may be pushed to Negative Interest rate policy

 

[superchuck500]

that was the convo this am on CNBC. Correlation or causation?

one guest said we are in the 9th inning ( top ) of the market cycle, and gave 50/50 shot of recession in next 12 mo. Said the issue is at the fed. They are handcuffed with Trump policy ( reducing rates ) vs staving off inflationary and recessionary pressures - something to that effect.

Greenspan says 'there is no barrier' to negative yields in the US

Alan Greenspan said nothing is stopping the U.S. from getting sucked into the global trend of negative yielding debt, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

www.cnbc.com

Interesting part above...Fed may be pushed to Negative Interest rate policy

Pretty sure the Fed won't go negative. One huge factor keeping US yields down is foreign demand. US Treasuries are paying significantly more than anywhere else in the world - so that's pushing down on our yields.

Yesterday we got an inflation number of 2.2% (core) and 1.8% overall - representing the biggest gain in six months. The Fed's inflation sensitivity is supposed to be set at 2% on the core, so we're there. I'm not saying the Fed has to raise rates on that number but this is a very dynamic situation we're in right now.

A whole handful of key indicators show growth, while others are signaling the opposite.

 

[efil4stnias]

Pretty sure the Fed won't go negative. One huge factor keeping US yields down is foreign demand. US Treasuries are paying significantly more than anywhere else in the world - so that's pushing down on our yields.

Yesterday we got an inflation number of 2.2% (core) and 1.8% overall - representing the biggest gain in six months. The Fed's inflation sensitivity is supposed to be set at 2% on the core, so we're there. I'm not saying the Fed has to raise rates on that number but this is a very dynamic situation we're in right now.

A whole handful of key indicators show growth, while others are signaling the opposite.

which is why we are in territory never seen before. imports and export pricing exceeded estimates. Confounding the pundits this am.

US import prices unexpectedly rise, but trend remains weak

U.S. import prices unexpectedly rose in July, but the underlying trend remained weak, pointing to subdued imported inflation.

www.cnbc.com

weird stuff

 

[bclemms]

Pretty sure the Fed won't go negative. One huge factor keeping US yields down is foreign demand. US Treasuries are paying significantly more than anywhere else in the world - so that's pushing down on our yields.

Yesterday we got an inflation number of 2.2% (core) and 1.8% overall - representing the biggest gain in six months. The Fed's inflation sensitivity is supposed to be set at 2% on the core, so we're there. I'm not saying the Fed has to raise rates on that number but this is a very dynamic situation we're in right now.

A whole handful of key indicators show growth, while others are signaling the opposite.

Exactly. They also have to cut rates so if that last quarter point helped fan the inflation flame, imagine when they come out and cut .5 next month or if employment numbers stall or trends reverse they'll likely have to cut whole points to have any hope of stemming off a recession (wont help but that's just their mentality).

Economy is doomed. Sadly, I think all it takes at this point is the dow moving down and consumers confidence falling just from hearing the news reports.

They've certainly backed themselves into a corner. I think we'll go zero. If we go to zero the rest of the world will go even more negative. At that point we can go negative and still be way above the rest of the world.

The right answer is take your medicine and attack debt at all levels while resetting the monetary policy but we all know that wont happen.

 

[bclemms]

Markets are setting up for an emergency intra-meeting cut by the fed so careful for the shorts in the near term. Fed cut would just make gold go up more.

 

[efil4stnias]

Markets are setting up for an emergency intra-meeting cut by the fed so careful for the shorts in the near term. Fed cut would just make gold go up more.

not to worry...according to POTUS most recent tweet, foriengers are moving money here in in historic levels.