The Investment Thread (10 Viewers)

[Mr. Blue Sky]

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Economy is doomed. Sadly, I think all it takes at this point is the dow moving down and consumers confidence falling just from hearing the news reports.

We’ve had 9 straight years of growth, we are way overdue for a correction, since that’s what the market does.. no way it can keep going straight up, up, up for 20 or 30 years... i dont think that means we’ll have a depression, or even a ‘great recession’— could just be a sluggish economy for while.

 

[efil4stnias]

From what the talking heads (not the band) were saying today, the recession indicator doesnt mean we’ll go into a recession economy tomorrow, or any time in the immediate future- more like in 12 to 18 months from now... just in time for whoever beats Trump in the election to feel the brunt of it, and have Trump supporters blame the new guy/gal instead of the current one.

Correct.

This type of activity precedes a recession by a year.

He is being advised of this and is why he is lashing out at the Fed on Twitter relentlessly. He is controlling the narrative.
Propaganda style.

The problem isn't that we are looking at recession. The problem is his attempt to politicize the Fed. And undermine their ability to set monetary policy as needed.

He has no clue about economics and is relying on Fox business to carry his message. (see dog in burning building meme)

 

[efil4stnias]

We’ve had 9 straight years of growth, we are way overdue for a correction, since that’s what the market does.. no way it can keep going straight up, up, up for 20 or 30 years... i dont think that means we’ll have a depression, or even a ‘great recession’— could just be a sluggish economy for while.

I think most understand the market cycle that invest.

The issue is the Fed can ease that transition (end of cycle til new one) if allowed to do their job without outside policitcal pressures.

 

[efil4stnias]

The other consideration is companies do in fact forecast. So if we are forecast to see recession they will adjust accordingly which can expedite issues til it hits.

 

[bclemms]

We’ve had 9 straight years of growth, we are way overdue for a correction, since that’s what the market does.. no way it can keep going straight up, up, up for 20 or 30 years... i dont think that means we’ll have a depression, or even a ‘great recession’— could just be a sluggish economy for while.

When I'm saying doomed, I'm purely talking relatively short term. In no way am I calling for a major depression or great recession even though I'm not ruling that out.

 

[superchuck500]

Correct.

This type of activity precedes a recession by a year.

He is being advised of this and is why he is lashing out at the Fed on Twitter relentlessly. He is controlling the narrative.
Propaganda style.

The problem isn't that we are looking at recession. The problem is his attempt to politicize the Fed. And undermine their ability to set monetary policy as needed.

He has no clue about economics and is relying on Fox business to carry his message. (see dog in burning building meme)

 

[bclemms]

I disagree. He knows enough about economics but he knows a lot more about self serving interests. Look back before he was president and he was also quite critical of the Fed. Except then it was for keeping interest rates too low and creating asset bubbles.

Now he needs the fed to cut rates to keep the economy and his trade war going. Without rate cuts to prop the market up he can't stick it to China. So now he is about to be forced into the choice of looking weak against China and the economy tanking which would put a nail in any reelection hopes. In other words. So Trump is trying to back the Fed into a corner to cut rates. The Fed is a very easy target too. They aren't supposed to be political and simply focus on the economic data. However, they have the power to end the trade war by not cutting rates and they could justify it by saying the US economy is still growing with the only thing holding it down is a trade war. If they did that it would put Trump in a corner and he would cave to China. If that were to happen (unlikely) then it would put a lot of power in China's hands. They could even push for more favorable trade terms than they started with. After all, they'll see a weak president who needs that agreement for reelection and the Chinese don't really have to worry about those pesky elections.

It's such a giant sheet show.

 

[efil4stnias]

I disagree. He knows enough about economics but he knows a lot more about self serving interests. Look back before he was president and he was also quite critical of the Fed. Except then it was for keeping interest rates too low and creating asset bubbles.

Now he needs the fed to cut rates to keep the economy and his trade war going. Without rate cuts to prop the market up he can't stick it to China. So now he is about to be forced into the choice of looking weak against China and the economy tanking which would put a nail in any reelection hopes. In other words. So Trump is trying to back the Fed into a corner to cut rates. The Fed is a very easy target too. They aren't supposed to be political and simply focus on the economic data. However, they have the power to end the trade war by not cutting rates and they could justify it by saying the US economy is still growing with the only thing holding it down is a trade war. If they did that it would put Trump in a corner and he would cave to China. If that were to happen (unlikely) then it would put a lot of power in China's hands. They could even push for more favorable trade terms than they started with. After all, they'll see a weak president who needs that agreement for reelection and the Chinese don't really have to worry about those pesky elections.

It's such a giant shirt show.

The only thing he understands about self serving economics is precisely why he has no clue regarding macro economics.

All he knows is low rates equal borrowing power and high rates mean less power.

I mean he tweets that money is arriving in the Treasury (foreign investment in our bonds because, well, they are the ONLY ONES paying interest currently and that's at a paltry 2%) in huge amounts. He doesn't even compute that in 2 years we have to PAY IT BACK.

Think about that... He is CELEBRATING this. It's like a bizarro world.

 

[bclemms]

The only thing he understands about self serving economics is precisely why he has no clue regarding macro economics.

All he knows is low rates equal borrowing power and high rates mean less power.

I mean he tweets that money is arriving in the Treasury (foreign investment in our bonds because, well, they are the ONLY ONES paying interest currently and that's at a paltry 2%) in huge amounts. He doesn't even compute that in 2 years we have to PAY IT BACK.

Think about that... He is CELEBRATING this. It's like a bizarro world.

I just figured he was twisting it because most people are too dumb to understand. Probably just both. lol

 

[Saint_Ward]

Don't panic over the yield curve inversion: El-Erian

Stocks sold off after the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted Wednesday morning, but strategists including Mohamed El-Erian say it might not signal a recession.

finance.yahoo.com

“I think the traditional signal is not as valid as the distortions are in driving the yield curve,” he told Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.

Inversion of the curve — that is, when the yield on the two-year Treasury exceeds that of the 10-year — has presaged seven of the last recessions. It effectively means investors are more confident about the long term than the short term, as they’re being paid more to take the risk of holding shorter-term government debt.

El-Erian said in this case, there are other factors.

“One, negative rates in Europe. And we've now got $16 trillion of bonds trading at negative yields because of what's happening in Europe. And the second distortion is this unhealthy co-dependence between markets and the Fed,” he said.

That’s all driving investors into the longer end of the curve in the U.S. — therefore depressing the yield in a way less connected to sentiment about the nation’s economy. (Treasury yields move inversely to price).

Even if there is a recession, there are mitigating factors that make it less likely it will be as severe as the financial crisis-era downturn.

He only gets worried if we get negative rates.

El-Erian: Negative yields 'will break things' in US economy

Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian says he would sound the alarm if U.S. Treasury yields dip into negative territory.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Saint_Ward]

hmmm...

Analyst Actions: Baird Lifts Heico PT to $170 From $125; Maintains Outperform Rating
BY MT Newswires
— 10:13 AM ET 08/13/2019

10:13 AM EDT, 08/13/2019 (MT Newswires) -- Heico's
average rating among analysts is a buy, with an average price target of $118.

Price: 143.39, Change: +2.14, Percent Change: +1.52

 

[Saint_Ward]

Interesting talk about clean energy and shorting oil.

 

[superchuck500]

Madoff whisteblower releases report detailing alleged accounting fraud at GE worth 40% of the company's market cap.

Yikes.

 

[superchuck500]

So the bulls are going to be running this morning with China softening substantially and strong US retail data. I bet we'll get at least half of yesterday back.

 

[superchuck500]

I shorted 1,000 shares of GE at $8.55.