The Investment Thread (12 Viewers)

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superchuck500 said:
There's no way it's going to settle in, at least not at these levels - not unless there is some dramatic resolution of the trade wars and a bounce in Europe.

There are too many crosswinds right now and too many negative indicators to balance against the positive ones. Bonds markets and equities are divergent. U.S. political leadership is mercurial (being nice) and is pulling at economic leadership to become a participant in the trade wars. All of that freezes or blunts forward CapEx and other expansion planning in the board room. And it brings institutional investing to conservative to moderate positioning.

None of that sets up stability at or near all-time highs. The president wants zero to even negative rates and additional balance sheet acquisition - those aren't the signs of a healthy economy. October is traditionally volatile and there's no reason to think 2019 will be different - in fact, all signs point to a choppy month.
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Yeah, uncertainty never helps.
 
Saint_Ward said:
Yeah, uncertainty never helps.
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The market has uncertainty everywhere.
Some predicting a recession.
Politicians talking about eliminating private healthcare, dismantling the banking industry, taxing wealth, and trade wars with china via tarriffs.

Despite it all, we see new highs.

As Cramer said this morning, the debates last night gave some comfort to banking and healthcare. Biden seems to be a moderate that the market can accept and he seems to have done well.
Plenty of time though.
 
bclemms said:
Can I copy your UVXY play? If so, let me know your plans. I'd love to give it a go.
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Looks like this Saudi oil attack is going to drive up volatility today, jumping in on UVXY might be a play right at the open, otherwise we're gonna have to let it settle down again.

And holy crap that attack killed my oil short - I was up nicely and gonna take profits this week. I was at dinner with my lovely wife on Saturday date night when the alert popped up. I was like "sonuva *****!"
 
superchuck500 said:
Looks like this Saudi oil attack is going to drive up volatility today, jumping in on UVXY might be a play right at the open, otherwise we're gonna have to let it settle down again.

And holy crap that attack killed my oil short - I was up nicely and gonna take profits this week. I was at dinner with my lovely wife on Saturday date night when the alert popped up. I was like "sonuva *****!"
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Yeah, unfortunately anytime I'm playing the short side of oil I have to remember there are a lot of rich people in the middle East that are long on explosives.
 
Oil up 10%.

I bought XES a few years ago. As usual, my Timing was real bad.
While it’s up big (+7%) today at 9, I got in at 17 a few years ago thinking there would be a move up in oil. Wrong.

Now it’s just a small hedge play In guess.
 
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Someone say "locked and loaded" again and push my KTOS stock up another 18.05% and I'll sell it for 100% profit.

Drones, Drones, Drones.
 
Saint_Ward said:
Rumors that Amazon was looking into offering a live TV package as well, have now been confirmed.

Amazon creating live TV package - Business Insider
The rumor

https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201975120

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/tech/2017/05/23/amazon-prime-now-let-you-watch-tv-live/102046756/

confirmed.

No details on the pricing or offereings yet.

With Amazon getting into this arena, pushing the boundaries on retail, cloud services, etc. I really do wonder how large they can grow. As long as they keep their laser focus on customer service, speed and cost, I think they can do a lot.

I'm very glad I was able to buy a few shares a while back while it was trading in the $700's... or course, I wish I did this a year or two before when they were in the $400-500 range. Wow.

Today they hit $998/share ad are now hovering around $996.
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I remember when Amazon was trading belo $4 a share and was loosing Billions every quarter. No one knew how long it would take to ever show a profitable Quarter. Boy I wish I knew then what I know now.


On that note, I remember when Apple was trading at $6.36 per share. I told my dad to buy $10,000 dollars worth, I was just in my twenties at the time and he said “ boy I am not taking investment advice from my son who has never made an investment in his life. With the 2 for one split then the 7 for 1 split later, at current prices he would have a cool $4,691,146.63 as of today. Ask him about that now and he will shank you
 
Sorry, the wrong thread was to chuck, who took care of it. But you also deleted the repo rate thing. Did you mean to so that?

NPR was talking about it, but I'm still a bit uneducated on it.
 
Grandadmiral said:
I'm really concerned with the future of NFLX. Was last quarter a blip or signs of things to come?
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superchuck500 said:
The problem for NFLX is that subs and sub growth remain the key metrics. The subs part is loyal but newcomers to the streaming market (DIS) will peel some away - and growth gets incrementally harder with saturation.

It’s a strong company and the content keeps it healthy but the multiple compresses with slowing growth. If the price comes down it’s not because the company isn’t strong, it’s because the price has to justify the fundamentals. Maybe they find another gear to keep expanding but it seems to me that the headwinds are stronger than ever.
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Good old October. Never disappoints.

WTH is going on with the retail brokerages? TD is down 24% and Schwab is down 11%.
 

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