The Investment Thread (16 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

I'm taking all long exposure down today.

The horse is leaving the barn and the rancher is a sheet show.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I'm taking all long exposure down today.

The horse is leaving the barn and the rancher is a shirt show.

I dropped just over half of what I had in the S&P500 on my IRA. Cashed out.

Still holding on to gold (the miners are killing me though)...

AMZN and NVDA are my ????'s... hold, sell a bit off? yikes.

My 401k I haven't touched.. but I may rebalance.. take some of the profits off all those funds, and move to stable. I can move them back later.

 

[efil4stnias]

I dropped just over half of what I had in the S&P500 on my IRA. Cashed out.

Still holding on to gold (the miners are killing me though)...

AMZN and NVDA are my ????'s... hold, sell a bit off? yikes.

My 401k I haven't touched.. but I may rebalance.. take some of the profits off all those funds, and move to stable. I can move them back later.

NVDA up this am. MSFT up.

GDP has been positive for q1 and q2 ( altho slowing ) so @superchuck500 , you see indicators other than the current reality show in DC?

 

[NewOrleansFan]

Looks like non manufacture ISM data is bad. Another red day.

 

[superchuck500]

NVDA up this am. MSFT up.

GDP has been positive for q1 and q2 ( altho slowing ) so @superchuck500 , you see indicators other than the current reality show in DC?

Indicators all over the place.

Manufacturing is in recession. Agriculture is in recession. UK is on the verge of recession. Yield curve inverted (the 3/10 key returned from inversion but others remain inverted). Auto sales have evaporated. Commercial rents are in free-fall. Forward Cap-Ex is not happening. Corporate borrowing has flattened. Oil is dropping through key support and nearing levels where the shale starts coming off-line.

The layoffs have started.

 

[efil4stnias]

Indicators all over the place.

Manufacturing is in recession. Agriculture is in recession. UK is on the verge of recession. Yield curve inverted (the 3/10 key returned from inversion but others remain inverted). Auto sales have evaporated. Commercial rents are in free-fall. Forward Cap-Ex is not happening. Corporate borrowing has flattened. Oil is dropping through key support and nearing levels where the shale starts coming off-line.

The layoffs have started.

well arent you a ray of sunshine.

sheesh.

 

[superchuck500]

I dropped just over half of what I had in the S&P500 on my IRA. Cashed out.

Still holding on to gold (the miners are killing me though)...

AMZN and NVDA are my ????'s... hold, sell a bit off? yikes.

My 401k I haven't touched.. but I may rebalance.. take some of the profits off all those funds, and move to stable. I can move them back later.

I think there are decent places to go out there - consumer staples and utilities can be good shelter. I think gold is only a near term volatility play but not bad for now.

I look out of my individual stocks with high multiples because those are the ones that will see the most air come out. I would put AMZN and NVDA in that group. But you can always buy back in when you want. I'd say the chance of a 25% drop is much much more likely than a 10% pop, agree? AT least that's how I see it.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I think there are decent places to go out there - consumer staples and utilities can be good shelter. I think gold is only a near term volatility play but not bad for now.

I look out of my individual stocks with high multiples because those are the ones that will see the most air come out. I would put AMZN and NVDA in that group. But you can always buy back in when you want. I'd say the chance of a 25% drop is much much more likely than a 10% pop, agree? AT least that's how I see it.

Yes.

for my IRA, unless I find a great play now, I usually just cash out and wait to pick a fund, and a price. I haven't had to do this in years though. I usually just leave it be or trade. I only have a little in gold on my IRA.

My 401k.. I don't think we have a fund that covers utilities or consumer stables.. it's stable value or bonds.. I need to look over our funds there. Most are growth stocks, Euro, Asia, etc.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I"m going to watch NVDA.. I already held on far too long.. but they're up a lot today, gonna keep and eye on them and jump out soon.

AMZN.. I may give a little time, but thinking it may be time to offload.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I realize this is just everyone's opinion and no one controls the market but in your typical 401k/Roth, what diversification %, stock vs bonds mutual funds, would everyone suggest right now?

I'd look at the age specific funds (if you have them) to get guidelines on where you should be at in terms of % in stable value or bonds. I"m going to do that later today. My stocks grow so well, that i'm sure I"m way out of blance. Time to re-balance. I won't over correct, but if I'm at 5% stable, and I should be at 10%, then I'll bump it up. Time to safeguard some profits.

The only one I'm not touching is my company stock (which is by far my largest balance), because I can't buy back in with my funds, only with the company match and yearly equity builder deposit. So, I can't "buy low".

 

[mc4saints]

I'd look at the age specific funds (if you have them) to get guidelines on where you should be at in terms of % in stable value or bonds. I"m going to do that later today. My stocks grow so well, that i'm sure I"m way out of blance. Time to re-balance. I won't over correct, but if I'm at 5% stable, and I should be at 10%, then I'll bump it up. Time to safeguard some profits.

The only one I'm not touching is my company stock (which is by far my largest balance), because I can't buy back in with my funds, only with the company match and yearly equity builder deposit. So, I can't "buy low".

Thanks. My 401k has an adjustment system so I moved from aggressive to moderate. That changes from 5% bonds/95% stock to 20/80. Too much? Not enough.

Here are the funds my Roth/Rollover is invested in:

FLCSX - Fidelity Large Cap Stock
FMILX - " " New Millenium
FTEC - " " MSCI IT
GASFX - Hennessy Gas Utility
OAKGX - Oakmark Global
VDIGX - Vanguard Dividend Growth
XSD - Spdr S&P Semiconductor

 

[You]

Not selling.

 

[superchuck500]

I didn't sell everything but went full risk off. Sold tech and manufacturing. Kept some consumer staples and Boeing (because I bought it at a low).

 

[efil4stnias]

Thanks. My 401k has an adjustment system so I moved from aggressive to moderate. That changes from 5% bonds/95% stock to 20/80. Too much? Not enough.

Here are the funds my Roth/Rollover is invested in:

FLCSX - Fidelity Large Cap Stock
FMILX - " " New Millenium
FTEC - " " MSCI IT
GASFX - Hennessy Gas Utility
OAKGX - Oakmark Global
VDIGX - Vanguard Dividend Growth
XSD - Spdr S&P Semiconductor

20% is about where my portfolio is ( stock vs funds ) - but with stocks, then you have to look at them individually. Hige PE vs high dividend paying etc etc. if there is a 20-25% pull back, those will feel the brunt.

i have a 230pm call w/ my FA - ill let you know what his plans are for he has been quite good for me over the last 12 years.

10 years ago, 20% loss was doable- i had 10 years to recover and the overall loss was mitigated due to portfolio size.

10 years later, 20% is NOT doable. So he has a plan ( his words lol )

 

[Saint_Ward]

Thanks. My 401k has an adjustment system so I moved from aggressive to moderate. That changes from 5% bonds/95% stock to 20/80. Too much? Not enough.

Here are the funds my Roth/Rollover is invested in:

FLCSX - Fidelity Large Cap Stock
FMILX - " " New Millenium
FTEC - " " MSCI IT
GASFX - Hennessy Gas Utility
OAKGX - Oakmark Global
VDIGX - Vanguard Dividend Growth
XSD - Spdr S&P Semiconductor

It's a function of age.

I'm 39. I can weather a recession or two. But, I also have enough in there, where I'd like to be smarter about how I weather it. I won't change my allocations. Just rebalance some items.