The Investment Thread (8 Viewers)

Just a minor re-balance in the 401k. Throwing a bit more towards bonds and stable value for a bit.

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Well, now that I'm out, NVDA popped a bit more today. 187. Still down a lot since the peak of 280 last year.
 

GE is trying to buy out 100k former employees pension's.
 
Well, now that I'm out, NVDA popped a bit more today. 187. Still down a lot since the peak of 280 last year.

You got out on a premise of substantial risk on the horizon. You can't check against that on a day to day basis, you'll drive yourself mad. Check on it in three months.
 
You got out on a premise of substantial risk on the horizon. You can't check against that on a day to day basis, you'll drive yourself mad. Check on it in three months.
Ha, I know. I'm fine with the gains I got on that one.

Definitely fine with the gains I got on AMZN too. That was like $1k/share.
 
Just a minor re-balance in the 401k. Throwing a bit more towards bonds and stable value for a bit.

1570209366666.png
Went full stable value myself. It sold on a high for the value in the fund I had. Dropping from 7% avg over year to 2.7%, but I'm willing to take that hit rn. We'll see if it was a good move or not.

FWIW, from NPR... WH seems deadset on big deal. They suspect China betting on impeachment and dealing with other than Trump. Who knows tho, the WH can always take what's given and claim victory anyway.

 
Went full stable value myself. It sold on a high for the value in the fund I had. Dropping from 7% avg over year to 2.7%, but I'm willing to take that hit rn. We'll see if it was a good move or not.

FWIW, from NPR... WH seems deadset on big deal. They suspect China betting on impeachment and dealing with other than Trump. Who knows tho, the WH can always take what's given and claim victory anyway.


All of it?
 
Went full stable value myself. It sold on a high for the value in the fund I had. Dropping from 7% avg over year to 2.7%, but I'm willing to take that hit rn. We'll see if it was a good move or not.

FWIW, from NPR... WH seems deadset on big deal. They suspect China betting on impeachment and dealing with other than Trump. Who knows tho, the WH can always take what's given and claim victory anyway.



Yeah, I think China has no incentive to deal now - just sit and wait for Trump to come calling as we get closer to the election. But either way, Trump can take a deal and pull the tariffs down, and that would be considered a big win in the market.

Because simply ending the trade war will be cheered, regardless of the deal, Trump is in a pretty good position there. The question in the interim will be how much damage is done and whether that damage breaks out.
 

pretty good stuff

I also like the idea that if more took it seriously, instead of waiting until the "event horizon", if CFOs took steps now, they could provide a "softer landing" and possibly avoid a recession altogether.

Makes total sense as the YC indicator is 12-18 months out historically.
 
So...

China, China, China, China, China...


The closer we get to the election, the more leverage China has over Trump. By many accounts, Trump is terrible at negotiating when he doesn't have leverage - so we'll see how it goes. The calculation is that China is hurting more than they're letting on, so we'll have to see how it plays out.

In the meantime, how much damage will be done - that's a key question.
 

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