The Investment Thread (1 Viewer)

Saint_Ward

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Rumors that Amazon was looking into offering a live TV package as well, have now been confirmed.

Amazon creating live TV package - Business Insider
The rumor

https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201975120

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/tech/2017/05/23/amazon-prime-now-let-you-watch-tv-live/102046756/

confirmed.

No details on the pricing or offereings yet.

With Amazon getting into this arena, pushing the boundaries on retail, cloud services, etc. I really do wonder how large they can grow. As long as they keep their laser focus on customer service, speed and cost, I think they can do a lot.

I'm very glad I was able to buy a few shares a while back while it was trading in the $700's... or course, I wish I did this a year or two before when they were in the $400-500 range. Wow.

Today they hit $998/share ad are now hovering around $996.
 

UncleTrvlingJim

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I’m not being dense, but what is “near term”. At 10% returns, your money doubles every 7.2yrs. At 11% it’s 6.5yrs and the Dow averaged 11% over the last decade. Would anything more than 3 or 5 years be considered near term?
It's a good question, and I guess it depends on your risk tolerance. I'd definitely consider 3 to 5 years as being near term. If you need your money that soon, I'd do a higher mix of "safer" investments such as bonds and t-bills. There have been periods in history of low returns for an extended period. For example if you invested money in 2000 right before the .com bubble burst, you would be basically treading water until 2010 (if you had been doing dollar cost averaging then you'd actually have a negative return in 2009 (but then you'd have a crap ton more money now). So basically, I think your horizon for stock investing should be 10+ years. As you near retirement or whenever it is you think you'll need money, you should move to more cash and bonds.
 

UncleTrvlingJim

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We've had an unprecedented bull run... don't be surprised if we have 4-5 years of flat returns.
 

UncleTrvlingJim

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We've had an unprecedented bull run... don't be surprised if we have 4-5 years of flat returns.
I don't know if we're at that point, but it I've got another 20 years before I need my investment money, and I would not be surprised to see a 4-5 year bear market at some point in that time frame.
 

DaveXA

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I don't know if we're at that point, but it I've got another 20 years before I need my investment money, and I would not be surprised to see a 4-5 year bear market at some point in that time frame.
I agree. There are some significant market risks we'll have to navigate in the next 12-24 months. The virus thing, a lot of instability in many areas of the world, there are some markets where bubbles are starting to develop and could pop before long, the elections and potential post election market downturn. There's also a really dysfunctional Congress that could throw a wrench in things.

It's tough to predict, but I'd be surprised if the market continues the trajectory it's had for several years now.
 

bclemms

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Futures are down big again. I actually think tomorrow is the change for a rally. If we can start down and get a reversal then it'll likely really run. Still think it'll be temporary and more likely scenario is we trim another 2-3%.

Gold finally bounced off of support levels and got upward momentum again. Could be ready for a run at $1700.
 

efil4stnias

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Futures are down big again. I actually think tomorrow is the change for a rally. If we can start down and get a reversal then it'll likely really run. Still think it'll be temporary and more likely scenario is we trim another 2-3%.

Gold finally bounced off of support levels and got upward momentum again. Could be ready for a run at $1700.
You touched on this before in this thread. The lag time of reports from Asia / Europe.
We get those late in day reports that really put the market on edge. Couple that with the run the market has been on for last 18 months, and here we are.
If the news is relatively good on the virus front, with the announcement of the Coronavirus task force here, it may be enough to quell the fear for now. And I don't know that the market has traded on so much "emotion" ever.
Then you have the market disruptions that no one has really gotten a handle on just yet.

With 3 stop losses that kicked in last few days, I locked in some good profits and will wait to make my next move with advice from my FA. We are both on same page which really helps out when investing. I defer to his 40 plus years experience and he has been fantastic for me over the last 11 years. (and you too @superchuck500 lol)

When you have 5 days of losses, day 6 usually sees a reversal of sorts. Thought we had that today, but then more news came and popped the balloon.
 

B4YOU

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@UncleTrvlingJim Thank you.

I view it a bit differently and decided to be a bit riskier. I lump invested money on a 5-year horizon figuring rolling 5-year returns will work in my favor. It’s money I don’t definitely need in that window, but it is planned for that. To mitigate risk, I bought a target date retirement fund. I think savings interest rates have just been too low over the last decade to justify 5-year money in a savings account if you have a window of flexibility +-2 years. I’m strongly considering liquidating the entire fund tomorrow.

Five-Year Time Frames
5 Years Rolling Returns


The chart above looks at rolling five-year returns of S&P 500 Index and three different bond indices from January 1973 – December 2016, and Russell 2000 Index returns from January 1979 – December 2016.
The S&P 500 Index, shown in bright red, delivered its worst five-year return of -6.6% a year over the five years ending in February 2009. The best five-year return of 30% occurred over the five years ending in July 1987.
 

efil4stnias

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Goldman Sachs report says

“We believe the greater risk is that the impact of the coronavirus on earnings may well be underestimated in current stock prices,” Goldman strategist Peter Oppenheimer said.


News keeps flowing out of Iran and SK that just isnt good. China seems to have plateaued, but as we all know, those numbers are probably fudged to give the impression that all is getting better.

Support for S & P was said to be around 3000-3030. We will test that today at opening bell.

@bclemms just posted on the Wuhan thread about a WHO presser today that they will probably state a global pandemic is underway ( and late of course ) and if that happens, and numbers like SK, Iran and other countries continue to show exponential growth, the market just doesnt have enough "feel good" momentum to ward off the negatives.

I fully expect the remainder of my stop losses to kick in today or tomorrow. Crazy.
 

Loose Cannon

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Liquidated about half of our retirement (this half is entirely in SPY and the "don't touch" half is in target date funds) due to some info I got around the virus and manufacturing. Sold all of our SPY on 2/14 at $336.70





Let's catch some falling knives boys!




ETA: the $305 order already hit as I was posting this...

Hopefully I don't die of China Herpes so I can actually enjoy the gains.
 
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Wish I'd bought AHPI yesterday.

Allied Healthcare Products, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of medical gas construction equipment, respiratory therapy equipment, home healthcare products, and emergency medical supplies. Our products appear worldwide in a range of medical applications
 

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