The Investment Thread (13 Viewers)

[Tapxe]

Hit circuit breakers in futures market, fed comes out and goes big on QE basically buying everything. Markets just up 2-3% for open and then immediately run down 3% and now we're sitting a little below open. Wild times.

It's insane to keep seeing these big banks come out once a week and bring their forecasts down in massive ways. They still aren't quite getting it. Chief investor for Morgan Stanley comes out just now and is execting a peak in mid April and then acts like right after that peak the economy will open back up. That's not how it works and I'm not sure how these guys still don't understand that. We aren't doing all this to get past the peak and then send sick people all over the place, we have to go to zero on the backside of that peak.

Futures market the dow hit 18,076. So we hit my target but still think we have a ways to go down. I'm reducing my positions and starting to pick up a little gold. When the dust settles things should turn inflationary from all of the QE and low rates and gold should do well. Also playing the dollar against South American currencies. Going to do this the next few months then start looking long in the market.

I read some good stocks to pick up are gold mining companies. IDK how to invest tho so not jumping. Just passing along some info for you folks to digest if you are looking for somewhere to go.

 

[bclemms]

I read some good stocks to pick up are gold mining companies. IDK how to invest tho so not jumping. Just passing along some info for you folks to digest if you are looking for somewhere to go.

I'm just playing NUGT ETF. It's crazy because the dollar is so strong but with all of this QE gold hedging inflation expected to run wild on the backside of the virus. Pretty much everyone is looking at Gold as a long play on the backside but wasn't really expecting it to start going this soon. Not sure if my play is a FOMO move or this is the start of the run. It's so hard to price gold because nobody can value companies and currencies are all devaluing themselves globally at the same time. There is just no way to price anything right now which is why the market is so volatile. GDP estimates for Q2 range from -6% to -50%. GDP estimates usually are within a .5-1% range. Trying to grasp that big of a difference is just staggering. Then we have stimilus on a scale the globe has never seen before and all this surrounding a virus that nobody knows if we will be able to get rid of this year. Actually surprised volatility isn't even worse.

Analyst on CNBC just said oil prices still have a ton of negative pressure and he even thinks oil could go to negative values since it costs more to store it than it's worth right now.

Mostly though, I've just moved to cash. Just sold me SDOW and TZA holdings and only thing I've got right now is NUGT.

 

[Tapxe]

I'm just playing NUGT ETF. It's crazy because the dollar is so strong but with all of this QE gold hedging inflation expected to run wild on the backside of the virus. Pretty much everyone is looking at Gold as a long play on the backside but wasn't really expecting it to start going this soon. Not sure if my play is a FOMO move or this is the start of the run. It's so hard to price gold because nobody can value companies and currencies are all devaluing themselves globally at the same time. There is just no way to price anything right now which is why the market is so volatile. GDP estimates for Q2 range from -6% to -50%. GDP estimates usually are within a .5-1% range. Trying to grasp that big of a difference is just staggering. Then we have stimilus on a scale the globe has never seen before and all this surrounding a virus that nobody knows if we will be able to get rid of this year. Actually surprised volatility isn't even worse.

Analyst on CNBC just said oil prices still have a ton of negative pressure and he even thinks oil could go to negative values since it costs more to store it than it's worth right now.

Mostly though, I've just moved to cash. Just sold me SDOW and TZA holdings and only thing I've got right now is NUGT.

Is the NUGT a long play or short? I'd have to imagine once the course is finally run or figured out, that'll start to fall back quite a bit. Kind of like the respirator company I was watching.

 

[B4YOU]

I will DCA in at Dow sub-17000. I posted a while ago that 16250 may be a bottom based on May 2014 - Oct 2016 bottoms. I’m worried we will continue half measures, see indefinite infection, and not find a bottom until there are therapeutics. I don’t know how we get back to normal with our current plans.

DC has extended its emergency plan to April 27. That’s six weeks of reduced/zero income for businesses. I don’t know how retail and small business can sustain a lease on commercial property at DC rents. I worry about commercial property financed with debt losing tenants.

 

[bclemms]

Is the NUGT a long play or short? I'd have to imagine once the course is finally run or figured out, that'll start to fall back quite a bit. Kind of like the respirator company I was watching.

I'm not sure yet. It's very volatile and very high risk so I'm just trading it at the moment. It's not designed to be long term but the way gold should run on the backside it'll pay off well. Doesn't mean it can't completely collapse in the short term.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

I think that this crisis could wind up being so bad, for so long, and people could lose so much money- that the word ‘retirement’ will be a quaint term that Millenials and Gen Z’ers will need their grandparents to explain it to them, because they will think that the concept of someone stopping work before they drop dead is completely foreign.

I personally harbored a dream of retiring on the early side, maybe in my late 50’s or 60ish.. that’s only 12 to 15 yrs away for me, so unless we somehow get control of this virus and the economy in a hurry, that dream is now just a pipe dream.. As are the hopes of people who just want to retire at 65 or 70, excepting the 1% of course.

 

[bclemms]

I will DCA in at Dow sub-17000. I posted a while ago that 16250 may be a bottom based on May 2014 - Oct 2016 bottoms. I’m worried we will continue half measures, see indefinite infection, and not find a bottom until there are therapeutics. I don’t know how we get back to normal with our current plans.

DC has extended its emergency plan to April 27. That’s six weeks of reduced/zero income for businesses. I don’t know how retail and small business can sustain a lease on commercial property at DC rents. I worry about commercial property financed with debt losing tenants.

I'm not buying long positions yet. Think you are absolutely correct and perhaps may even be optimistic. Like you said, as long as we are doing half measures it's going to continue getting worse and the longer we wait the harder it will be to shut this thing down before the end of summer. I'm not saying we aren't going lower than 18k, just think that downward movement in the market will be slower and we'll chop around a lot more. The market is still being reactionary. My biggest question is not the virus or how we react though, it's how much money will we throw at it and how willing is the market to look to the other side of the canyon. Two weeks ago I had 100% confidence in the direction of the market and knew it would be extreme. Now I'm not certain how far, how fast, how much liquidity and fiscal measures, how the market will react to those. So it's back to trading sectors instead of the broad market for me.

 

[Rickboy]

I think that this crisis could wind up being so bad, for so long, and people could lose so much money- that the word ‘retirement’ will be a quaint term that Millenials and Gen Z’ers will need their grandparents to explain it to them, because they will think that the concept of someone stopping work before they drop dead is completely foreign.

I personally harbored a dream of retiring on the early side, maybe in my late 50’s or 60ish.. that’s only 12 to 15 yrs away for me, so unless we somehow get control of this virus and the economy in a hurry, that dream is now just a pipe dream.. As are the hopes of people who just want to retire at 65 or 70, excepting the 1% of course.

My only saving grace may be that, a few years back, I left one of my 401K in money markets. It was dumb but that account currently has $90K that I can put back into the market when it bottoms out. My other 401K has lost $15K in the last few weeks. At this point I guess it has to ride it out.

 

[Rickboy]

Correction, make that down $17K.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

My only saving grace may be that, a few years back, I left one of my 401K in money markets. It was dumb but that account currently has $90K that I can put back into the market when it bottoms out. My other 401K has lost $15K in the last few weeks. At this point I guess it has to ride it out.

I made the mistake of looking at my 401k last week. I'm down like a couple hundred k. I'm still like 20 years out, so hopefully there will be a normal rebound in the next 10 years.

 

[sonicboom]

Dow Jones at 18k.

 

[Rickboy]

I made the mistake of looking at my 401k last week. I'm down like a couple hundred k. I'm still like 20 years out, so hopefully there will be a normal rebound in the next 10 years.

Same here, about 20years out... Though right now I really don't plan to retire. I like working. The only reason I save is because I might change my mind.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

My only saving grace may be that, a few years back, I left one of my 401K in money markets. It was dumb but that account currently has $90K

No offense, but how can you possibly think that that was ‘dumb’?

I did the same thing, but purposely, in case of something like this (with less than $90k though ).. now i’m thanking my lucky stars that i didnt cave in to people (including a financial advisor friend) who told me i was crazy becuase i was missing out on ‘so many gains’ in the market.. the same market that’s a freaking lead balloon right now, and probably isnt done dropping.. sure, you dont want to be *entirely* in money markets, and i’,m not- but i dont think anyone who looks down on conservative investments like that is looking very smart right now.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I made the mistake of looking at my 401k last week. I'm down like a couple hundred k. I'm still like 20 years out, so hopefully there will be a normal rebound in the next 10 years.

Very similar boat...

 

[El Caliente]

Picked up some Penn and JPM today. Looking forward to those returns. If WFC goes below $20 I am going to back up the Brinks truck.