The Investment Thread (21 Viewers)

[Loose Cannon]

Markets went berserk today. Up 11%? Good lawd. Anyone shorting got a nasty haircut today.

If this was a dead cat bounce, it was the biggest ever by a mile.

Edit: If Congress farts around tonight and doesn't pass anything tonight, I expect to see a bigger drop tomorrow than the gain today.

Pretty sure congress finishing that deal was baked in to the big jump yesterday. I'm expecting flat-ish today and perhaps for the rest of the week while everyone sort of waits to see new developments. If I were a day trader type, I'd probably short VIX for the rest of the week. The two big things that we're waiting on are going to be:
- The antivirual trials - Chloroquine (sp?) et al
- Whether Trump and some more local leadership like governors continue to bang the "open it back up sooner than later" drum. While I do think that will result in more death and heartbreak for people, "ripping the band aid off" I believe will pump the stock market more than continued shelter in place measures will.

I got all of the last of my cash in last week. I think the bottom was that S&P 2200 area that we hit earlier this week. I sold almost all of my SPY at about $330 on Feb 14, and dollar-cost-averaged back in on the way down for what my bank shows as an average $271 cost-basis after all said and done. Hopefully I got it right. I think I did.

 

[bclemms]

Pretty sure congress finishing that deal was baked in to the big jump yesterday. I'm expecting flat-ish today and perhaps for the rest of the week while everyone sort of waits to see new developments. The two big things are going to be:
- The antivirual trials - Chloroquine (sp?) et al
- Whether Trump and some more local leadership like governors continue to bang the "open it back up sooner than later" drum

I got all of the last of my cash in last week. I think the bottom was that S&P 2200 area that we hit earlier this week. I sold almost all of my SPY at about $330 on Feb 14, and dollar-cost-averaged back in on the way down for what my bank shows as $271 after all said and done. Hopefully I got it right. I think I did.

You certainly did short term.

Unfortunately I think long term the markets are either insane or I am greatly underestimating all the stimulus. If this thing drags on until summer then explodes again in the fall, I'm just not sure how the problems dont snowball into something far worse than is being factored in.

 

[Loose Cannon]

You certainly did short term.

Unfortunately I think long term the markets are either insane or I am greatly underestimating all the stimulus. If this thing drags on until summer then explodes again in the fall, I'm just not sure how the problems dont snowball into something far worse than is being factored in.

Yeah, when I say "bottom" I'm not necessarily calling it for the long haul. Very real possibility that we come out of this for the most part during the summer and everyone frolicks around in the sun, then we're right back where we started in the fall.

 

[travelingsaintsfan]

I wonder how many quick profits will be taken today to bring it back down again. At the lowest point I have lost (temporarily I hope) a fifth of my retirement.

 

[superchuck500]

Today's bounce feels like more than a dead cat bounce. Think we may actually see a bit of a short term rally. I'm not buying though. We're about to start stacking bodies and see stuff from hospitals that we never thought imaginable in the USA. Plus if Trump drops restrictions after 15 days then it's going to get worse again before it gets better. Also, there is now a very high chance of a second wave I think we go lower. A lot lower. I'll play gold up and inverse ETF's back down.

I couldn’t help it yesterday, did some buying. Gonna watch closely.

 

[efil4stnias]

I couldn’t help it yesterday, did some buying. Gonna watch closely.

Same here but nibbled... Qqq and smh etfs

Not quite ready to cannonball back in

 

[superchuck500]

Same here but nibbled... Qqq and smh etfs

Not quite ready to cannonball back in

Yeah, I bought QQQ and ZBRA, a logistics tech company I have been wanting to get back in on - I had it from the 90s to the 120s and took a nice profit - but it kept going up to 260 or so. Its in the 170s right now.

I also bought WYNN, not a stock I used to follow but I bought puts in it when Wuhan started and it went from 130 down to 60. I think the same dynamics (90% revenue from Macau, and 60% from Chinese customers) will move it back up as China recovers and US fund managers look for places where recovery will be faster than US.

 

[efil4stnias]

Yeah, I bought QQQ and ZBRA, a logistics tech company I have been wanting to get back in on - I had it from the 90s to the 120s and took a nice profit - but it kept going up to 260 or so. Its in the 170s right now.

I also bought WYNN, not a stock I used to follow but I bought puts in it when Wuhan started and it went from 130 down to 60. I think the same dynamics (90% revenue from Macau, and 60% from Chinese customers) will move it back up as China recovers and US fund managers look for places where recovery will be faster than US.

ZBRA rocks. ?

 

[superchuck500]

Running again this morning on Congress package announcement.

I'm a bit concerned about whether unemployment will cause a shock later this week, but that could already be in the low. Remains to be seen if this is a short rally up while trend remains down, of if it was indeed a bottom. I think 2,350 was a big technical resistance and that's where we bounced.

If we head back down, watch that number again.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[efil4stnias]

Gilead put that out there Monday.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I couldn’t help it yesterday, did some buying. Gonna watch closely.

Sort of the same.

Since I missed getting out of Gold early, my patience rewarded me with almost breaking even. So, I sold out of my IAU fund. That will sit in cash for a while.

I, probably stupidly, bought another $300 worth of Discover. (8 shares). Would have been better to do that a few days ago. Trying to get my cost basis down for the long hold. Luckily, I sold off half of my positions before their huge drops. I had 20 shares to start, knocked it down to 10, now back to 18, but at a lower cost basis. Not a huge amount of money, obviously. haha. Free trading makes this stuff easier.

my S&P500 fund and NVDA are my only decent greens, and TIP is back positive again.

I'll probably keep my new cash from the IAU sell on the sidelines, even though a part of me wants to pump back into the S&P.

Yes, we will deal with this COVID-19 stuff again, but I think the wake up call is a new normal. I fully expect people to start being more like Asia, by wearing masks, more social distancing, etc. There will be stupid people who will YOLO all day/night. I'd expect Airlines to continue the sanitizing, and probably get people to wear masks (the regular surgical masks, cough guards, not N95 stuff).

If this can turn into a new normal for unemployment and/or paid sick leave, we can better fight other epidemics.

 

[Rickboy]

My VMware stock is back above 120. I've had it since $45 so not like I'm dying there..

The Senate won't get to vote on the deal until late today because the language of the bill is still being written. Of course none of the Senators is actually going to read it. The House won't get a chance to even look at it until tomorrow. I'm just speculating here but don't y'all think we'll see a couple more bumps as this thing passes?

 

[Saint_Ward]

My VMware stock is back above 120. I've had it since $45 so not like I'm dying there..

The Senate won't get to vote on the deal until late today because the language of the bill is still being written. Of course none of the Senators is actually going to read it. The House won't get a chance to even look at it until tomorrow. I'm just speculating here but don't y'all think we'll see a couple more bumps as this thing passes?

I'd say 40% chance of another attempt to do something more for workers.

 

[Rickboy]

I'd say 40% chance of another attempt to do something more for workers.

You're right, but that may be in the form of another bill instead of doing it to this one.