The Investment Thread (6 Viewers)

Saint_Ward

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Rumors that Amazon was looking into offering a live TV package as well, have now been confirmed.

Amazon creating live TV package - Business Insider
The rumor

https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201975120

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/tech/2017/05/23/amazon-prime-now-let-you-watch-tv-live/102046756/

confirmed.

No details on the pricing or offereings yet.

With Amazon getting into this arena, pushing the boundaries on retail, cloud services, etc. I really do wonder how large they can grow. As long as they keep their laser focus on customer service, speed and cost, I think they can do a lot.

I'm very glad I was able to buy a few shares a while back while it was trading in the $700's... or course, I wish I did this a year or two before when they were in the $400-500 range. Wow.

Today they hit $998/share ad are now hovering around $996.
 

bclemms

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Looking at the velocity charts he was showing vs Fed policy it sure looks like we've been in a recession since 2007 and the bull market in equities was simply based on debt and cheap rates combined with corporate debt and stock buy backs. Sounds crazy but corporate debt, government debt, credit card debt, student loan debt and medical debt were all at record levels and drove the consumer.

Looking at the retracement levels of the SP and Dow, it sure shows how importance the levels we are testing now are to the markets.

With the complete disconnect between FANG stocks and the rest of the market combined with the unemployment numbers overlayed with bankruptcy chart shows just how much consolidation is taking place among a handful of companies.

If we have a second waves it is really going to be doom and gloom for the economy and we really could see the unraveling of the ponzi scheme. Thank god the rest of the world is in the same position. If this was just a US problem then the dollar would be vaporized.

It also shows what so much FED lending could do to the markets on the backside of this. If markets were able to increase 300% off of 2008 lows from the FED, then it's easy to see how that could happen again if we are able to recover quickly. Problem is, this is just going to get us to the next crisis.
 

efil4stnias

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Looking at the velocity charts he was showing vs Fed policy it sure looks like we've been in a recession since 2007 and the bull market in equities was simply based on debt and cheap rates combined with corporate debt and stock buy backs. Sounds crazy but corporate debt, government debt, credit card debt, student loan debt and medical debt were all at record levels and drove the consumer.

Looking at the retracement levels of the SP and Dow, it sure shows how importance the levels we are testing now are to the markets.

With the complete disconnect between FANG stocks and the rest of the market combined with the unemployment numbers overlayed with bankruptcy chart shows just how much consolidation is taking place among a handful of companies.

If we have a second waves it is really going to be doom and gloom for the economy and we really could see the unraveling of the ponzi scheme. Thank god the rest of the world is in the same position. If this was just a US problem then the dollar would be vaporized.

It also shows what so much FED lending could do to the markets on the backside of this. If markets were able to increase 300% off of 2008 lows from the FED, then it's easy to see how that could happen again if we are able to recover quickly. Problem is, this is just going to get us to the next crisis.
I like how he explained, simply, how that the equities market ( Wall St ) is NOT indicative of the broader economy ( Main St ) and how he hit you with Top 5 S & P 500 stocks market cap is EQUIVALENT to that of the bottom 300 or so companies.

Thats insane.

Basically, the Fed has been propping up the market since 2008 or so and all the while debt has been building.

sueprchuck500 posted a week or so back that chatter is starting to ramp up about deflation.

As you can see here, for good reason.
 

efil4stnias

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Looking at the velocity charts he was showing vs Fed policy it sure looks like we've been in a recession since 2007 and the bull market in equities was simply based on debt and cheap rates combined with corporate debt and stock buy backs. Sounds crazy but corporate debt, government debt, credit card debt, student loan debt and medical debt were all at record levels and drove the consumer.

Looking at the retracement levels of the SP and Dow, it sure shows how importance the levels we are testing now are to the markets.

With the complete disconnect between FANG stocks and the rest of the market combined with the unemployment numbers overlayed with bankruptcy chart shows just how much consolidation is taking place among a handful of companies.

If we have a second waves it is really going to be doom and gloom for the economy and we really could see the unraveling of the ponzi scheme. Thank god the rest of the world is in the same position. If this was just a US problem then the dollar would be vaporized.

It also shows what so much FED lending could do to the markets on the backside of this. If markets were able to increase 300% off of 2008 lows from the FED, then it's easy to see how that could happen again if we are able to recover quickly. Problem is, this is just going to get us to the next crisis.

We are at S & P historical retracement TOP now....62%.

Historically, this is it, and the reversal begins in earnest.

And if the slide begins just before fall, and we get a second wave from Covid....yeah. will get ugly.
 

bclemms

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I like how he explained, simply, how that the equities market ( Wall St ) is NOT indicative of the broader economy ( Main St ) and how he hit you with Top 5 S & P 500 stocks market cap is EQUIVALENT to that of the bottom 300 or so companies.

Thats insane.

Basically, the Fed has been propping up the market since 2008 or so and all the while debt has been building.

sueprchuck500 posted a week or so back that chatter is starting to ramp up about deflation.

As you can see here, for good reason.
Yes, it became deflationary the second the virus jumped on a plane in landed in the US. It was inflationary when it was a China problem shutting down supply while US demand was still high. The questions of inflation and deflation are simply symptoms though. There is little doubt that short term deflation will dominate.This will continue to force the FED and Congress to keep printing money. This is why I've been so big on Gold since last summer. The question is on the backside of Covid whether we will get inflation but like Japan and Europe, we've injected so much money into the system since 2008 that it has been driving the markets but main street must have a bull market to drive inflation and it simply hasn't been there. It's been government debt driving the economy. Want to see just how much debt has been driving this bad boy?
1590094455422.png
 

efil4stnias

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Yes, it became deflationary the second the virus jumped on a plane in landed in the US. It was inflationary when it was a China problem shutting down supply while US demand was still high. The questions of inflation and deflation are simply symptoms though. There is little doubt that short term deflation will dominate.This will continue to force the FED and Congress to keep printing money. This is why I've been so big on Gold since last summer. The question is on the backside of Covid whether we will get inflation but like Japan and Europe, we've injected so much money into the system since 2008 that it has been driving the markets but main street must have a bull market to drive inflation and it simply hasn't been there. It's been government debt driving the economy. Want to see just how much debt has been driving this bad boy?
1590094455422.png
look at insert 2009.

look at chart 2009.

EL OH EL.

its simply artificial. His video is corret- no more fundamentals ( ive been screaming this for a good year now ) its flows. I thought emotion, but its not- its funds, govt funds and private funding flowing in and making the market SEEM well. Its no longer based on consumer data. Pssh...the REAL money comes from those outside sources.

Welp, gonna ride this wave. Just hope im Kelly Slater and know when to get off the wave before i get drowned.
 

bclemms

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look at insert 2009.

look at chart 2009.

EL OH EL.

its simply artificial. His video is corret- no more fundamentals ( ive been screaming this for a good year now ) its flows. I thought emotion, but its not- its funds, govt funds and private funding flowing in and making the market SEEM well. Its no longer based on consumer data. Pssh...the REAL money comes from those outside sources.

Welp, gonna ride this wave. Just hope im Kelly Slater and know when to get off the wave before i get drowned.
I'm not pretending to have been sitting on this great magical secret. I watched the video and it all kind of clicked. Pulled those two charts and BOOM.

So basically GDP has been driving the market but Government debt has been driving GDP. So why have we been doing this? Imagine running a campaign on a platform on "The next 20 years are going to suck". LMAO, #MASA

Seriously though, it's coming down to either drawing down the debt again like we did in that 40 year stretch with stagnant markets or ride the market wave like you speak but the latter will end spectacularly.
 

bclemms

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Could be a rough day tomorrow. China is pushing a new privacy law on Hong Kong where their market is down 3% and protests are about to really get fired up again as tensions between China and USA continue to increase. Dow futures are down a little over 200 points right now but they are usually down about that much in the middle of the night the last few weeks before a big reversal comes in a couple hours before the open. Glad I held heavy gold and Silver ETF's overnight. Was ready to jump on VIIX in the morning going into a 3 day weekend but looks like I'm literally a day late again. I've been missing that Vix trade by a day for a year now.

As for the new law passed in Hong Kong and why it is a big deal to the USA? Well, Mike Pompeo's public approval of Taiwan's newly elected president really pissed off the Chinese since she is very much against anything China and China basically said this would be the end of the 1 country, 2 system in Taiwan. So in retaliation, China drops a law that would basically end the 1 country, 2 system rule in Hong Kong, something Trump has vowed to protect. So this is kind of a big deal as China is inviting USA into some proxy tensions in Hong Kong and Trump's reelection campaign is going to just about be 100% anti China. There is already some talk about sanctions with China and China at this point has probably had enough of Trump. China does have to be somewhat careful though, they are literally the one thing the US has bipartisan support on at the moment.

Here is the law.
 
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Maxp

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Could be a rough day tomorrow. China is pushing a new privacy law on Hong Kong where their market is down 3% and protests are about to really get fired up again as tensions between China and USA continue to increase. Dow futures are down a little over 200 points right now but they are usually down about that much in the middle of the night the last few weeks before a big reversal comes in a couple hours before the open. Glad I held heavy gold and Silver ETF's overnight. Was ready to jump on VIIX in the morning going into a 3 day weekend but looks like I'm literally a day late again. I've been missing that Vix trade by a day for a year now.

As for the new law passed in Hong Kong and why it is a big deal to the USA? Well, Mike Pompeo's public approval of Taiwan's newly elected president really pissed off the Chinese since she is very much against anything China and China basically said this would be the end of the 1 country, 2 system in Taiwan. So in retaliation, China drops a law that would basically end the 1 country, 2 system rule in Hong Kong, something Trump has vowed to protect. So this is kind of a big deal as China is inviting USA into some proxy tensions in Hong Kong and Trump's reelection campaign is going to just about be 100% anti China. There is already some talk about sanctions with China and China at this point has probably had enough of Trump. China does have to be somewhat careful though, they are literally the one thing the US has bipartisan support on at the moment.

Here is the law.
Brandon, have you watched any of General Robert Spalding's interviews on China? Or read his book?
 

bclemms

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Brandon, have you watched any of General Robert Spalding's interviews on China? Or read his book?
Watched the whole thing today. I agree with a lot of what he is saying. China is 100%, without a question, in a financial war with the USA. They want to keep our economy going just enough to keep theirs running until they get their population to a consumer level that we have. They don't trust the USA, they are absolutely in our networks and they are taking US technology and using it against us. They are acting under "Emerging Markets' rules in the WTO as the world's 2nd largest economy giving them unfair trade advantages. They are manipulating currency and most importantly they are winning the tech war in some of the most important sectors on the planet in 5G, robotics, drones, data aquisition, etc.

At the same time, the USA has been letting them do it in exchange for cheap goods that have fueled the consumer and companies.

I don't fear the Chinese, I fear the USA. We quite literally control our own destiny but we're becoming more like China while China is becoming more like the USA in a sense. Until we deal with our own political corruption and our own corrupt economical mindsets, the Chinese will have the advantage. Ironically, I think Covid could serve as the turning point that may have otherwise lingered for decades.

As for staying on point in the investment thread, this is why China US tensions creat huge market swings. China has the ability to collapse our country into this incredible black hole and they could do it one day. They have nukes pointed at every street in America except they aren't in the form of a war head on a missile. China could cut off exports to the USA and pull investments and quite literally collapse our society to the point we wouldn't be able to feed, medicate or produce anything tech related to meet demand for a couple of years. We also have that power over China but they are far more likely to push the big red button.
 

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I think COVID being a turning point for our country and economy is the most important issue we are facing right now. We need leadership to force production of strategic interests back to the US and NATO allies. Tech, medical supplies, communications, and shipping all need to be made and supported locally.
 

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Watched the whole thing today. I agree with a lot of what he is saying. China is 100%, without a question, in a financial war with the USA. They want to keep our economy going just enough to keep theirs running until they get their population to a consumer level that we have. They don't trust the USA, they are absolutely in our networks and they are taking US technology and using it against us. They are acting under "Emerging Markets' rules in the WTO as the world's 2nd largest economy giving them unfair trade advantages. They are manipulating currency and most importantly they are winning the tech war in some of the most important sectors on the planet in 5G, robotics, drones, data aquisition, etc.

At the same time, the USA has been letting them do it in exchange for cheap goods that have fueled the consumer and companies.

I don't fear the Chinese, I fear the USA. We quite literally control our own destiny but we're becoming more like China while China is becoming more like the USA in a sense. Until we deal with our own political corruption and our own corrupt economical mindsets, the Chinese will have the advantage. Ironically, I think Covid could serve as the turning point that may have otherwise lingered for decades.

As for staying on point in the investment thread, this is why China US tensions creat huge market swings. China has the ability to collapse our country into this incredible black hole and they could do it one day. They have nukes pointed at every street in America except they aren't in the form of a war head on a missile. China could cut off exports to the USA and pull investments and quite literally collapse our society to the point we wouldn't be able to feed, medicate or produce anything tech related to meet demand for a couple of years. We also have that power over China but they are far more likely to push the big red button.
Foreign policy experts from Asia portray China as still emerging - unsure of itself, not as monolithic as it appears, structurally suspect in some areas, and playing an incremental game. That kind of power-play seems out of character.
 

bclemms

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I think COVID being a turning point for our country and economy is the most important issue we are facing right now. We need leadership to force production of strategic interests back to the US and NATO allies. Tech, medical supplies, communications, and shipping all need to be made and supported locally.
In the long run, the most important thing facing our country is political divide and corruption. Get those under control and the rest pretty much fixes itself and does so really freaking fast. China, like our Covid response, is simply a symptom of our much bigger problems on the home front. Until we substantially increase the pay of our leaders while removing all the conflicts of interests like lobbying,, insider trading,, campaign contributions,, superpacs and corporate welfare we will continue to struggle. We will never be able to get ahead when politicians will waste tens of millions of taxpayer dollars to get a $10k campaign contribution. The idea that many of the biggest companies in the world don't pay taxes but our middle class does is insanity. The fact that we have been relatively war free the past 10 years and we are running the biggest deficit since WW2 is incredibly frustrating. We keep pushing the iimits of financial sovereignty with the expectation everything will go perfectly. Well, one of these days it will not. Imagine if this virus hit in 2009-2012 as we were coming off the financial crisis. Imagine if the recovery doesn't go as planned and we drag on for years. Imagine if we have a super disaster strike right now like a mega quake in the pacific NW or New Madrid. Imagine if a country starts a war tomorrow. We our running our country in the financial red line when times are bad but we are no longer able to take our foot off the gas and debt is spiraling out of control. We need a leader. We need someone that bring this country together and lead us to being responsible. I just don't see how we can get that done. The Republicans will hate anyone the democrats bring out and vice versa. A thread party would get lit up from both sides. As it Stands right now, a honest politician can't raise enough money to even run for office.
 

bclemms

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Foreign policy experts from Asia portray China as still emerging - unsure of itself, not as monolithic as it appears, structurally suspect in some areas, and playing an incremental game. That kind of power-play seems out of character.
I'm not saying they would do it, simply they have the capability and having the capability is more important than actually acting on it.

As for still emerging, yes, they can certainly still grow huge amounts. Are they to the point where the WTO should overlook IP theft and given trade concessions like a third world country? If they didn't have the manufacturing infrastructure it may be different but they are the world's conveyor belt.
 

bclemms

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More on China. Looks like bipartisan support is brewing for sanctions against China. This comes after Trump's speech at the UN last year calling out the Chinese with some pretty big threats if they were to encroach on Hong Kong's Independence but he was extremely hesitant to sign a bipartisan bill to help protect Hong Kong's protestors just a few weeks later. China has been consolidating and building military power throughout Asia and Taiwan and Hong Kong are a thorn in their side. China dropped this on Hong Kong the same day they said that Taiwan would rejoin China but dropped the word peacefully they have been using for years. Hong Kong and Taiwan basically have no military so the only thing that can stop China is the US. I think China goes after Hong Kong and Taiwan right now and dares Trump to stop them. If Trump blows up the trade deal and we start levying sanctions on China it's going to put a huge amount of pressure on the economy and send the markets crashing again. If that happens then Trump's chances at reelection are really done but if he doesn't react the China is blowing up his entire election campaign of being tough on China. At the same time, being tough on China is literally the one issue were there is bipartisan support and Biden will likely be campaigning hard on it and hold Trump's feet to the fire. There is going to be a lot of political pressure.

Trying not to make this too political, but it's going to be something to watch big time in regards to the markets. As for Hong Kong, the financial sectors will likely just move to Singapore and forget about Hong Kong if no action is taken. If action is taken then it will be an all out economic war between the US and China and greatly disrupt markets and likely supply chains.

I'm guessing we're going to see a lot of rage tweets, lies and threats but little in the way of action between now and the election but nothing is off the table at this point.
 

bclemms

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Dow futures are up almost 500 points and the markets appear to be breaking out. Tomorrow will likely be a battle between the Bears and Bulls heading into the close. If the SP closes above 3000 then the last bit of resistance it has is at the 3100 level before testing all time highs on the technical end. So technicals combined with good news on the virus front could have the market ready to soar this week. Tensions with China may be the only thing that will hold it back. It's sure starting to look like we are going to get a full W if the 2nd wave hits.
 

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