The Investment Thread (6 Viewers)

Was holding TZA and VIIX today (held them through the close) which saved me from going red in the late sell off. Made huge gains on BYND and DKNG run up but gave some back when they broke resistance levels this afternoon. Held them through the night as well and worried about those.

AAL and LYV paid nice today, closed out LYV at the bell. Closed out AAL on a drop down this morning with the intention of reapplying the short but no shares were available to short and probably going to regret it.

I was expecting a pull back after hitting really strong resistance levels on S&P but not that big of a pull back, thinking that today's sell off into the close may be something bigger than just a slump but the last time I thought that it went up a ton the next day. Overall, I'm really confident we see a big sell off in the markets. Just not sure if that will be tomorrow or October. FED is making it really difficult to make money and the insider trading is running wild through the markets right now. Seeing so much shady stuff happening everywhere.

I honestly have no idea where this is going.

I heard three different very smart people today say we're in a massive deflationary cycle - and the Fed injections are actually aiding it.

Googling "how to make money in a deflationary cycle". Shorting is the obvious answer but I bet there's other ways with lower beta. One option is (not jokingly) bitcoin.
 
I honestly have no idea where this is going.

I heard three different very smart people today say we're in a massive deflationary cycle - and the Fed injections are actually aiding it.

Googling "how to make money in a deflationary cycle". Shorting is the obvious answer but I bet there's other ways with lower beta. One option is (not jokingly) bitcoin.
Oh, I'm confident it's going down. I'm not confident when or how which is just as important as knowing the general direction. Shorting is great until you get squeezed by the big guys that feel confident banking huge amounts of money because they are trading with inside information or on news being held private until after the markets close and because they can simply out gamble you. Bitcoin looked attractive but there is even more manipulation in bitcoin than equities. Gold is an attractive short for deflation but there has been so much market interference that this is a mash up of inflation and deflation at the same time. I mean, is it really deflation when you go to the grocery store and pay $100 for a gallon of milk, a couple of steaks and 2 dozen eggs? Is it really deflation when unemployment numbers are banging on great depression territories and you can't find anyone to hire because they make more sitting at home? Is it really deflation when real estate prices are still sitting near all time highs? Its a demand problem which causes deflation but it's a supply problem in other places which causes inflation, deflation is usually caused because there is a lack of money but right now most people have more money on hand than they did before this thing started.

When looking back through history, inflation almost always starts with food and medical industries before it creeps into energy and farming sectors. I feel like food prices have been going through hyperinflation for years. When you look at food costs it has stayed relatively flat for a long time but our food system has also benefited from some pretty massive technology advances both with food itself and the manufacturing process. If you look at REAL food, food without the growth hormones, organic vegetables, wild caught seafood, etc, prices have gone through the roof and it started about the same time our prices in the medical and education world skyrocketed. I really think we've been experiencing high inflation for a very long time but it just doesn't look like it because technology and imports have hidden those costs. Usually hyperinflation doesn't become obvious until there are food shortages and rationing. We are experiencing both of those right now but for far different reasons.

The markets are no longer free markets and haven't been for decades but each crisis they are becoming a little bit more controlled. We laughed when the Chinese wouldn't allow people to sell stock. That is a controlled market. Well, we allow people to sell equities but those equities are being bought by the government which is being backed by the taxpayers. Is there really a difference? Both are fixed but one is just a little bit more straight forward and honest. It's like gambling on the WWE you may not be able to predict who will win or lose but you can bet that the action will be fake. It's all so blurry we can't even tell the difference between deflation and hyperinflation.

But where would we be if not for the FED and expansion of monetary policy? The whole system would have collapsed in the Great Recession and again for the pandemic. Then again, if the FED wasn't there would we all be living in this eutopia of credit, consumer spending and no savings? Every single aspect of it wreaks of a faiing ponzi scheme. Why does our economy collapse every crisis now to the point that we can't clear the books from one crisis before entering the next? Why does each crisis bring the promise of total demise and collapse? When the cash stops flowing in a ponzi scheme, it collapses. The only difference with this ponzi scheme is this time Madoff has his own printer.

Sorry for the rant but I literally feel like I'm watching Rome burn. They literally are not going to let the money stop flowing no matter what because it will result in a total collapse of the economic system. In past crisis we at least waited until the crisis hit bottom before stepping into cause a reversal. Right now, we've exanded monetary policy at record pace and did it when the country had a couple dozen deaths from Covid. There has to be a breaking point somewhere with the monetary policy and we have decided to make this an 18 month crisis instead of a 90 day crisis by choosing dumb over Science and Math. At this rate every person in the country is going to have a debt liability of $150-$200k in the form of national debt this time next year. We're literally headed for bankruptcy. The FED's solution to this problem will end up being negative interest rates but the whole world is headed for default. So yeah, it'll be deflation right up to the point the screen says Game Over.
 
Damn, brah. Just shoot me now. 😢
Brah, you know how much a bullet is going to be worth in 18 months?

Sorry for the happy post. I've been really disappointed in America lately and just don't understand how we will pay for our debts. It's like counting on the voters to elect someone that promises to make you take your medicing and go to your room. Seems really far fetched.
 
I honestly have no idea where this is going.

I heard three different very smart people today say we're in a massive deflationary cycle - and the Fed injections are actually aiding it.

Googling "how to make money in a deflationary cycle". Shorting is the obvious answer but I bet there's other ways with lower beta. One option is (not jokingly) bitcoin.

Not sure we are in massive but we could be on the precipice. Falling demand or increased supply. Which one is the real trigger? Oil is seeing massive aggregate supply. Yet demand remains relatively strong from the consumer. Food items seem to be rising in price, so is that staving off deflation?

But what will Q2 results bring in both reports and confidence? If it solidifies the thought demand is contracting across the board, could be a problem. The way to stave off deflation? Interest rate hikes. And I seriously don't see Powell getting away with hikes 3 or 4 months before Nov 3. We could be in a pickle when it comes to policy and tools available to right the ship.

So many moving parts in this and sadly only one of them need to fail for us to cross the event horizon.
 
Oh, I'm confident it's going down. I'm not confident when or how which is just as important as knowing the general direction. Shorting is great until you get squeezed by the big guys that feel confident banking huge amounts of money because they are trading with inside information or on news being held private until after the markets close and because they can simply out gamble you. Bitcoin looked attractive but there is even more manipulation in bitcoin than equities. Gold is an attractive short for deflation but there has been so much market interference that this is a mash up of inflation and deflation at the same time. I mean, is it really deflation when you go to the grocery store and pay $100 for a gallon of milk, a couple of steaks and 2 dozen eggs? Is it really deflation when unemployment numbers are banging on great depression territories and you can't find anyone to hire because they make more sitting at home? Is it really deflation when real estate prices are still sitting near all time highs? Its a demand problem which causes deflation but it's a supply problem in other places which causes inflation, deflation is usually caused because there is a lack of money but right now most people have more money on hand than they did before this thing started.

When looking back through history, inflation almost always starts with food and medical industries before it creeps into energy and farming sectors. I feel like food prices have been going through hyperinflation for years. When you look at food costs it has stayed relatively flat for a long time but our food system has also benefited from some pretty massive technology advances both with food itself and the manufacturing process. If you look at REAL food, food without the growth hormones, organic vegetables, wild caught seafood, etc, prices have gone through the roof and it started about the same time our prices in the medical and education world skyrocketed. I really think we've been experiencing high inflation for a very long time but it just doesn't look like it because technology and imports have hidden those costs. Usually hyperinflation doesn't become obvious until there are food shortages and rationing. We are experiencing both of those right now but for far different reasons.

The markets are no longer free markets and haven't been for decades but each crisis they are becoming a little bit more controlled. We laughed when the Chinese wouldn't allow people to sell stock. That is a controlled market. Well, we allow people to sell equities but those equities are being bought by the government which is being backed by the taxpayers. Is there really a difference? Both are fixed but one is just a little bit more straight forward and honest. It's like gambling on the WWE you may not be able to predict who will win or lose but you can bet that the action will be fake. It's all so blurry we can't even tell the difference between deflation and hyperinflation.

But where would we be if not for the FED and expansion of monetary policy? The whole system would have collapsed in the Great Recession and again for the pandemic. Then again, if the FED wasn't there would we all be living in this eutopia of credit, consumer spending and no savings? Every single aspect of it wreaks of a faiing ponzi scheme. Why does our economy collapse every crisis now to the point that we can't clear the books from one crisis before entering the next? Why does each crisis bring the promise of total demise and collapse? When the cash stops flowing in a ponzi scheme, it collapses. The only difference with this ponzi scheme is this time Madoff has his own printer.

Sorry for the rant but I literally feel like I'm watching Rome burn. They literally are not going to let the money stop flowing no matter what because it will result in a total collapse of the economic system. In past crisis we at least waited until the crisis hit bottom before stepping into cause a reversal. Right now, we've exanded monetary policy at record pace and did it when the country had a couple dozen deaths from Covid. There has to be a breaking point somewhere with the monetary policy and we have decided to make this an 18 month crisis instead of a 90 day crisis by choosing dumb over Science and Math. At this rate every person in the country is going to have a debt liability of $150-$200k in the form of national debt this time next year. We're literally headed for bankruptcy. The FED's solution to this problem will end up being negative interest rates but the whole world is headed for default. So yeah, it'll be deflation right up to the point the screen says Game Over.


I'm frightened and feel totally uneasy. There are many things that are going on that scream, iceberg ahead, and the people on the ship are still hung over from last night's party. Maybe the economy will stay a float and have another boom, but I'm taking a lifeboat now, and hope I can make it back to shore one day. It's gonna be a long paddle.


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Not sure we are in massive but we could be on the precipice. Falling demand or increased supply. Which one is the real trigger? Oil is seeing massive aggregate supply. Yet demand remains relatively strong from the consumer. Food items seem to be rising in price, so is that staving off deflation?

But what will Q2 results bring in both reports and confidence? If it solidifies the thought demand is contracting across the board, could be a problem. The way to stave off deflation? Interest rate hikes. And I seriously don't see Powell getting away with hikes 3 or 4 months before Nov 3. We could be in a pickle when it comes to policy and tools available to right the ship.

So many moving parts in this and sadly only one of them need to fail for us to cross the event horizon.

I think a huge part of the deflationary cycle is the scale of tech. There's so many things we don't do anymore due to tech. And Covid is accelerating some of those evolutions.
 
I think a huge part of the deflationary cycle is the scale of tech. There's so many things we don't do anymore due to tech. And Covid is accelerating some of those evolutions.
I think tech has saved us from inflation to this point too. What tech did for the food industry and logistics helped drive prices down. Tech drove a manufacturing boom in China/India causing a huge drive down in prices of consumer goods. Tech helped create the online shopping boom which is based off of massive turnover and razor thin margins which reduces prices.

Kind of odd to think of Tech as deflationary but it certainly has been to this point.

Makes you really think about how much robotics, 5G and self driving cars will change the game in the next generation of tech.
 
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Powell put it all out there this morning. Thinks recovery could take a lot more time, huge downside risks. Fed going to keep the money train going and encourages government to do the same.

He insists he doesn't want negative rates but then calls it an unsettled area "for now" they aren't considering it.

Is concerned about the long term debt and says that must be addressed after recovery but that is the same thing the FED said after the financial crisis and we responded with more spending and more tax cuts.

The travel industry must see the recovery happen fairly quickly in order to benefit from the lending. Fed is willing to lend to them based off of 2019 earnings but calls it risky.

Main St- Companies with less than $5B revenue, don't have access to capital market and incredibly diverse. They are trying to create lending program for them and it should go live in a few weeks.


He rightly avoids addressing any policy related to the virus.
 
Brah, you know how much a bullet is going to be worth in 18 months?

Sorry for the happy post. I've been really disappointed in America lately and just don't understand how we will pay for our debts. It's like counting on the voters to elect someone that promises to make you take your medicing and go to your room. Seems really far fetched.

They are gonna eventually be voting for the guy with the strongest leg to boot that can as far down the road as possible.

Until we run out of road.
 
Powell put it all out there this morning. Thinks recovery could take a lot more time, huge downside risks. Fed going to keep the money train going and encourages government to do the same.

He insists he doesn't want negative rates but then calls it an unsettled area "for now" they aren't considering it.

Is concerned about the long term debt and says that must be addressed after recovery but that is the same thing the FED said after the financial crisis and we responded with more spending and more tax cuts.

The travel industry must see the recovery happen fairly quickly in order to benefit from the lending. Fed is willing to lend to them based off of 2019 earnings but calls it risky.

Main St- Companies with less than $5B revenue, don't have access to capital market and incredibly diverse. They are trying to create lending program for them and it should go live in a few weeks.


He rightly avoids addressing any policy related to the virus.


If by travel you mean "airlines", Powell must have heard BA CEO yesterday. He clearly sees no more than 50% capacity by YEARS END. Some were talking 50% by Sept and he basically said " Nah i see 25% "

If a plane is flying from NO to NYC at 25% - that plane is PAYING to fly them. Fuel still filled, crew fully staffed and paid...all as if the plane were 100% filled.
Ask the folks at Amtrak or Greyhound how that all worked out for them.

I dont know how long the airlines can tread water, but i cant imagine its more than several months of this before shoes start dropping.
 
My parents flew from CLT to MSY yesterday. They said the flight was full.

At MSY there were only six aircraft at gates.
 
My parents flew from CLT to MSY yesterday. They said the flight was full.

At MSY there were only six aircraft at gates.


yeah i guess one way to slow the bleed is to cancel routes with multiple flying times. Instead of 3-4 daily flights out, maybe cut down to 1-2 per day.
 
So last week I read about this Vancouver company that is developing psychotherapy treatment meds using psilocybin mushrooms and ketamine - and that the company was very serious and the psychotherapy community was very receptive. The company was trading at 70 cents.

It's now up to 89 cents. The symbol is SHRMF, the company is Champignon Brands. They just announced a $10M private capital deal at 85 cents, so that drove the jump.


 

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