The Investment Thread (13 Viewers)


I believe his exact quote was unemployment numbers would be many, many, many, multiples, many millions for up to years. LOL For a guy that is so well spoken and each word is so carefully thought out, I was thinking it was quite telling.
 
I love your optimism. lol

If it goes down I'll just buy more.
On Fidelity's site.

Sell Beyond Meat Stock. It Has Been 'Excessively Rewarded' by Meat Shortages -- Barrons.com
BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
— 4:55 PM ET 06/09/2020

Beyond Meat
stock is on fire. Meat shortages caused by Covid-19, combined with new product distribution agreements announced by the company, have fueled the recent rally. But shares have gone far enough for one Wall Street research house. CFRA recommends selling the stock.

Analyst Arun Sundaram points out that in April and May about 20 protein-processing plants had to close because of the pandemic, resulting in a steep drop in beef and pork production. But production is bouncing back and meat shortages are proving to be short lived.
"Shares of plant-based meat company Beyond Meat
[ticker: BYND] have been excessively rewarded, in our view, from the dynamic playing out in the conventional meat space," Sundaram wrote in a Tuesday research report.

He may have a point. Over the past month, traditional chicken, beef and pork processors, such as Sanderson Farms
, Tyson Foods ( TSN ) and Hormel Foods , have fallen about 1.6% on average, while Beyond Meat stock has risen by almost 17%.

Beyond Meat's gains outpaced the broader market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rallied 12.4% and 9.9%, respectively, over the same span.

Sundaram sees normalizing protein operations as a risk to Beyond Meat's
shares. But he also worries about restaurant closures and rising competition in the alternative-meat space. "51% of [the company's] 2019 net sales were to customers in the restaurant and food service industry, well above the exposure that most conventional meat processors and larger packaged food peers have," the analyst said.

Recent gains, however, haven't been all about the traditional protein industry's woes. Beyond Meat
has benefited from overseas expansion. In fact, the stock rallied 22% on Monday after the company announced a distribution deal with a Chinese company.

The stock usually reacts positively to new product distribution. The question for investors is what to pay for good news.
Overall, Sundaram isn't too bearish. His target price is $95 a share, which puts him in the middle of the pack of Wall Street analysts. Beyond Meat
stock has looked attractive on that basis many times this year. It started off 2020 at about $75 and traded as low $54 a share.

On Tuesday, the stock fell 5.2% to $153.95, giving back some of Monday's gains. Year to date, shares are up more than 100%, easily beating comparable returns of the S&P and Dow.

Sorry for the formatting, it doesn't paste well.
 
On Fidelity's site.



Sorry for the formatting, it doesn't paste well.
That price target is on crack.

Since BYND passed that price target they set, BYND has gotten long term product distribution deals with Kroger, a couple of fast food restaurants a company in China and a couple in Europe. They've reduced costs and pricing has become more competitive with Beef.

It could go down some but for them to think the price should be lower than what it was before all of the above happen is just dumb. The meat shortages was only about 15-20% of it's gains and if there is a second wave then those meat shortages are likely to get even more severe.

The attractive part of BYND is it's expansion into major grocery stores, internationally and into restaurants. The even more attractive part is the long term outlook because the plant based meat can help offset carbons in a world that will be fully focused on climate change on the back side of Covid.
 
That price target is on crack.

Since BYND passed that price target they set, BYND has gotten long term product distribution deals with Kroger, a couple of fast food restaurants a company in China and a couple in Europe. They've reduced costs and pricing has become more competitive with Beef.

It could go down some but for them to think the price should be lower than what it was before all of the above happen is just dumb. The meat shortages was only about 15-20% of it's gains and if there is a second wave then those meat shortages are likely to get even more severe.

The attractive part of BYND is it's expansion into major grocery stores, internationally and into restaurants. The even more attractive part is the long term outlook because the plant based meat can help offset carbons in a world that will be fully focused on climate change on the back side of Covid.

Oh, I agree with you. I should have been on board with them earlier.

BTW, I bought 5 shares today. Small position.
 
Just got email from Vivid Seats....the Harry Styles show 7/27 in Atlanta ( the concert kid #1 was going too) has been rescheduled.

for Oct 27

2021


LOLOL. Aint gonna give up that $$$ THAT easy.
 
Just got email from Vivid Seats....the Harry Styles show 7/27 in Atlanta ( the concert kid #1 was going too) has been rescheduled.

for Oct 27

2021


LOLOL. Aint gonna give up that $$$ THAT easy.
That's garbage.

Tool decided to cancel the rest of their tour, not to hold fan's money hostage for the rest of 2020 or possibly 2021. So, we should get refunds in the next 20-30 days.
 
Closed below 3200 today and now dow futures are down almost 500 points. If the jobs report is a bummer tomorrow then could see one of those really ugly days with continued momentum downward.

If patterns hold true the job report will be better than expected by some miscount in data. lol

Only thing I'm holding overnight was a little BYND, short AAL, bought UVXY this afternoon expecting what could be a rough day tomorrow and spike in the Vix. Then have my USLV position. Just small positions in each but looks like I'll gap up on everything excpet BYND.
 





We all know that this pandemic isnt over. We also knew that this pandemic would affect regions in "waves". NO, NYC, Seattle were in first wave. Now places like Chicago and other states seeing a rise in cases. So it stands to reason that areas like Chicago ( and population size ) which are getting into spikes will react accordingly and this is a result of said actions. We are far from over, the numbers bear it out.

But we keep getting this "euphoria" from top down that things are really starting to happen ( opening/shopping etc ) Shoot i heard Kudlow dodge the first two questions and immediately pivot to what a great job the admin has done to get us to where we were 2 days ago ( regarding market levels ).

People ask us to keep politics out of discussions when our very leaders make it a POINT to point out just who is responsible for all this good euphoria. Then disappear when that euphoria reverses. We cant. Because the current administration refuses to.
 
I don't know this guy, but if he's right and it seems possible, this will hurt a lot of folks who never anticipated.


One of the consequences of the lockdowns is that it's "short-term deflationary." He believes commercial real estate prices will go down as companies shift from an office to work-from-home permanently.

He also makes a case that it's wage deflationary.

"If a $100,000 white-collar worker gets laid off, I think that they just stare in the mirror in the morning with just fear in their eyes looking at their own eyes because what are you going to do?” he said. “A lot of people don't have any savings, not enough savings. If a certain swath of the employment-population has a significant layoff in the echo of the pandemic, which I think is coming, then they're probably going to be looking for a job and there won't be many openings relative to the unemployment pool with that type of a skillset.”

“Obviously, I think these people will take another job with a pay cut,” he continued. “If you're making $100,000 and you're staring at the abyss of no income and you have de minimus savings, especially if you have a family to feed, I think that $75,000 similar job would look pretty attractive even as an interim step."

What's more, the shift to permanent work-from-home is deflationary too if someone can do the same job in a lower-cost environment like Boise, Idaho compared to San Francisco.
 

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