The Investment Thread (13 Viewers)

[bclemms]

Unless you're short the market, yes.

Or if you are short the last week but it was too obvious it became a meme and still went up.

 

[jboss]

Unless you're short the market, yes.

I was thinking about getting back in UVXY but it's been more volatile than the markets. I looked into and the VIX etfs have as much if not more overspeculation as the markets.

 

[DaveXA]

I was thinking about getting back in UVXY but it's been more volatile than the markets. I looked into and the VIX etfs have as much if not more overspeculation as the markets.

Yeah, it was more of a tongue in cheek comment, but...if inflation starts to ramp up, that could be a real problem for long positions in the near term. The Fed will have to be paying attention to this, as I'm sure they are. We'll see I guess.

 

[Chris]

 

[bclemms]

Yeah, it was more of a tongue in cheek comment, but...if inflation starts to ramp up, that could be a real problem for long positions in the near term. The Fed will have to be paying attention to this, as I'm sure they are. We'll see I guess.

I disagree. Inflation will put even more pressure on the dollar to be invested. I just think it will change the equity strategies. Plus you wont get inflation without real economic recovery. It's the catch 22. If the economy doesn't recover you don't get inflation. If the economy recovers you will get inflation due to all the stimulus. Without all the stimulus you wont get economic recovery. It's been so long since the guages have shown inflation and the FED has been under inflation targets for so long that they will let it run hot for quite some time.

I do think commodities explode at the first sign of inflation though and will create a cycle that becomes difficult to break if the FED waits too long. The fed has shown repeatedly they would rather create and inflate a bubble than be the proverbial straw that pops the bubble even if it is needed. This is probably because they have been reactionary to so many popped bubbles the past few decades and runaway inflation hasn't been an issue for so long nobody remembers it. I also think the guages which measure inflation are completely broken and skewed by technilogical advancements and the inflation indexes shouldn't discount commodity prices as much as they do to create that index.

 

[jboss]

Yeah, it was more of a tongue in cheek comment, but...if inflation starts to ramp up, that could be a real problem for long positions in the near term. The Fed will have to be paying attention to this, as I'm sure they are. We'll see I guess.

I was surprised to see the market try to hold with the Fed speech coming up. I can't see it being any good news for the bull market. But, again, this market has proved me wrong wrong plenty times the past year.

 

[DaveXA]

I disagree. Inflation will put even more pressure on the dollar to be invested. I just think it will change the equity strategies. Plus you wont get inflation without real economic recovery. It's the catch 22. If the economy doesn't recover you don't get inflation. If the economy recovers you will get inflation due to all the stimulus. Without all the stimulus you wont get economic recovery. It's been so long since the guages have shown inflation and the FED has been under inflation targets for so long that they will let it run hot for quite some time.

I do think commodities explode at the first sign of inflation though and will create a cycle that becomes difficult to break if the FED waits too long. The fed has shown repeatedly they would rather create and inflate a bubble than be the proverbial straw that pops the bubble even if it is needed. This is probably because they have been reactionary to so many popped bubbles the past few decades and runaway inflation hasn't been an issue for so long nobody remembers it. I also think the guages which measure inflation are completely broken and skewed by technilogical advancements and the inflation indexes shouldn't discount commodity prices as much as they do to create that index.

That's a pretty reasonable take. Makes sense.

 

[bclemms]

I was surprised to see the market try to hold with the Fed speech coming up. I can't see it being any good news for the bull market. But, again, this market has proved me wrong wrong plenty times the past year.

I think the fed comes out and tries to calm inflation fears pretty significantly. Think they were wanting to cool markets down the past few weeks but not crash them and will probably hint at healthy correction without saying it explicitly. If the 10 year continues to run from this point it could create a really bad outcome it will lead to numerous giant bubbles popping. Markets are in that correction area now but are close enough to breaking through key support levels that it could turn problematic fast at a time where most assume all stimulus is about to come to a hault.

 

[jboss]

I think the fed comes out and tries to calm inflation fears pretty significantly. Think they were wanting to cool markets down the past few weeks but not crash them and will probably hint at healthy correction without saying it explicitly. If the 10 year continues to run from this point it could create a really bad outcome it will lead to numerous giant bubbles popping. Markets are in that correction area now but are close enough to breaking through key support levels that it could turn problematic fast at a time where most assume all stimulus is about to come to a hault.

True I think the Fed has been walking a tight rope for quite some time, especially with the markets being as hot as they have been. Hopefully this is only correction territory instead of a full on crash. But I think you're right I think the Fed is trying to deflate the bubble without popping it.

 

[DaveXA]

I disagree. Inflation will put even more pressure on the dollar to be invested. I just think it will change the equity strategies. Plus you wont get inflation without real economic recovery. It's the catch 22. If the economy doesn't recover you don't get inflation. If the economy recovers you will get inflation due to all the stimulus. Without all the stimulus you wont get economic recovery. It's been so long since the guages have shown inflation and the FED has been under inflation targets for so long that they will let it run hot for quite some time.

I do think commodities explode at the first sign of inflation though and will create a cycle that becomes difficult to break if the FED waits too long. The fed has shown repeatedly they would rather create and inflate a bubble than be the proverbial straw that pops the bubble even if it is needed. This is probably because they have been reactionary to so many popped bubbles the past few decades and runaway inflation hasn't been an issue for so long nobody remembers it. I also think the guages which measure inflation are completely broken and skewed by technilogical advancements and the inflation indexes shouldn't discount commodity prices as much as they do to create that index.

Hmmm,

Dow falls 300 points after Powell inflation comments trigger yield jump, Nasdaq goes red on year https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/03/stock-market-open-to-close-news.html?__source=androidappshare

 

[xaeniac]

I disagree. Inflation will put even more pressure on the dollar to be invested. I just think it will change the equity strategies. Plus you wont get inflation without real economic recovery. It's the catch 22. If the economy doesn't recover you don't get inflation. If the economy recovers you will get inflation due to all the stimulus. Without all the stimulus you wont get economic recovery. It's been so long since the guages have shown inflation and the FED has been under inflation targets for so long that they will let it run hot for quite some time.

Flawed thinking to think stimulus is required for recovery. Cycles are normal. Yes, COVID did put a stress on things, but it would allow things to cool. However, we have attempted to put an item in hyperdrive that really needs to cool, thus the meltdown will eventually come. More pain to follow.

 

[Chris]

 

[TXSAINTFAN]

Daaaaayum!

 

[Turfie]

Bought 3 shares of GME at 117 today and sold for 142.

 

[DaveXA]

Bought 3 shares of GME at 117 today and sold for 142.

Would have liked to do that with 10k shares.