The Investment Thread (15 Viewers)

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superchuck500 said:
It's absolutely true - the "great climate migration" has begun. California, Arizona, the Gulf Coast and other places are seeing net loss of population, almost certainly due to climate. I think about it a lot too, and where would I like to buy property.

We're staying in Charleston, just bought a new house, but I find myself regularly thinking about western NC and VA. Is that still too warm?
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Come to VA! I need some good neighbors, haha.
 
superchuck500 said:
It's absolutely true - the "great climate migration" has begun. California, Arizona, the Gulf Coast and other places are seeing net loss of population, almost certainly due to climate. I think about it a lot too, and where would I like to buy property.

We're staying in Charleston, just bought a new house, but I find myself regularly thinking about western NC and VA. Is that still too warm?
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I mean, define too warm. Some areas of Chareleston have a doomed future. Hard to explain it any better than the climate has in the last 5 years there. Sucks because it is probably the most underrated city in the country. I don't think it's going to happen fast in most places but some of the places around Charleston could be a lot faster than most think but it may also likely lead to an increase in home prices that are on higher ground. As for too warm, it really just depends on the local ecosystem and how much variation it can handle. Biggest concern for me in the NC/Va areas would be increased frequency of extreme flooding events in which case, just focus on areas away and uphill from streams and creeks. As for investment, there is so much open space in West NC and Va that buying rural likely wouldn't be the best bet.

The long term Climate play is farm land in the central to northern plains sitting on top of healthy aquifers. Healthy aquifer basically means an aquifer that isn't being emptied quickly, doesn't have high nitrates or uranium. Places in Nebraska are probably the best bet. Everyone talks about Bill Gates buying up all the farm land, all of it is located right over the top of aquifers as well. That is probably the simplest play to make good money but it's going to take decades to become lucrative. The least desirable places for aquifers are Louisiana and Florida where they actually pay foreign corporations to move here and pump free ground water in exchange for pollution and campaign finance. In the SW they allowed Saudi's to buy farm land and grow water intensive crops in the desert to send back to Saudi because they don't want to waste their own water. Yes, watching a middle eastern country exploit the USA for resources has some irony. Some of those farms have literally sucked some little communities dry leaving them abandoned. The farm play is good because of increasing populations, reduced farmland due to climate change, plant based meat will become increasingly popular. All of which would increase demand while shrinking supply.

Short term climate plays are very crowded green energy plays but if you can find a unicorn it will be like betting on tech in the early 2000's. New technology nuclear power is a REALLY good solution but it's got a lot of work to change public perception of the industry before it even has a chance. Plus it is more likely to be politicized and bombarded with misinformation than wind energy ever dreamed.
 
bclemms said:
I mean, define too warm. Some areas of Chareleston have a doomed future. Hard to explain it any better than the climate has in the last 5 years there. Sucks because it is probably the most underrated city in the country. I don't think it's going to happen fast in most places but some of the places around Charleston could be a lot faster than most think but it may also likely lead to an increase in home prices that are on higher ground. As for too warm, it really just depends on the local ecosystem and how much variation it can handle. Biggest concern for me in the NC/Va areas would be increased frequency of extreme flooding events in which case, just focus on areas away and uphill from streams and creeks. As for investment, there is so much open space in West NC and Va that buying rural likely wouldn't be the best bet.

The long term Climate play is farm land in the central to northern plains sitting on top of healthy aquifers. Healthy aquifer basically means an aquifer that isn't being emptied quickly, doesn't have high nitrates or uranium. Places in Nebraska are probably the best bet. Everyone talks about Bill Gates buying up all the farm land, all of it is located right over the top of aquifers as well. That is probably the simplest play to make good money but it's going to take decades to become lucrative. The least desirable places for aquifers are Louisiana and Florida where they actually pay foreign corporations to move here and pump free ground water in exchange for pollution and campaign finance. In the SW they allowed Saudi's to buy farm land and grow water intensive crops in the desert to send back to Saudi because they don't want to waste their own water. Yes, watching a middle eastern country exploit the USA for resources has some irony. Some of those farms have literally sucked some little communities dry leaving them abandoned. The farm play is good because of increasing populations, reduced farmland due to climate change, plant based meat will become increasingly popular. All of which would increase demand while shrinking supply.

Short term climate plays are very crowded green energy plays but if you can find a unicorn it will be like betting on tech in the early 2000's. New technology nuclear power is a REALLY good solution but it's got a lot of work to change public perception of the industry before it even has a chance. Plus it is more likely to be politicized and bombarded with misinformation than wind energy ever dreamed.
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I'm thinking western NC or VA in the sort of Roanoke down to Boone and over to Greensboro - that sort of triangle, but definitely not pure rural. I think the Charleston area has significant risk of sea-level rise in low-lying areas and even downtown, which is at substantial flooding risk. But based on where we are (not on the peninsula) and its insurability, I'm fine with the situation. Interestingly, though a major hurricane strike is always possible, I think that the geometry for a major strike in CHS sets up far less favorably (for a strike) than places like the Gulf Coast, where the geometry just isn't favorable at all. I wonder if you agree with that.

The Nebraska thing is really interesting - from a long term perspective. Is Bill Gates really buying up large tracks of Nebraska sitting on quality water? Damn.
 
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Michael Burry just got subpoenaed for the GME investigation.

Also clear that Ken Griffin lied under oath when he said that no one at Citadel had direct communications with Robinhood during January.
 
Turfie said:
C8209E3D-0DA1-4852-A450-C69DD19A80F9.jpeg
Michael Burry just got subpoenaed for the GME investigation.

Also clear that Ken Griffin lied under oath when he said that no one at Citadel had direct communications with Robinhood during January.
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"With all that's going on in the world . . . "

What does he think the SEC is? Superfriends? Are they supposed to go out and cure Covid or end authoritarianism?
 


Holy cow. I remember people complaining that open orders were deleted in retail brokerage accounts. It was true. This stuff is insane.

They got to delist GME. All 1 billion shares (only 75 million are real; of that the public float is about 35 million). Take that billion shares in retail hands on one side of the room. Corupt Hedges and Brokerages on the other side. The game? Hedges need to buy 965,000,000 million shares from retail. Until every counterfeit is identified. I'm sure the first hundred million shares they could get for about $1000 per share. After that this stuff will look like phone numbers.
 
Turfie said:


Holy cow. I remember people complaining that open orders were deleted in retail brokerage accounts. It was true. This stuff is insane.

They got to delist GME. All 1 billion shares (only 75 million are real; of that the public float is about 35 million). Take that billion shares in retail hands on one side of the room. Corupt Hedges and Brokerages on the other side. The game? Hedges need to buy 965,000,000 million shares from retail. Until every counterfeit is identified. I'm sure the first hundred million shares they could get for about $1000 per share. After that this stuff will look like phone numbers.
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I'm very curious to see how all of this shakes out. Remember that allegations in a lawsuit are not evidence - they are characterizations that may or may not be true or complete. That said, if they were colluding in such a fashion, fork 'em - bring down the hammer.
 
superchuck500 said:
I'm very curious to see how all of this shakes out. Remember that allegations in a lawsuit are not evidence - they are characterizations that may or may not be true or complete. That said, if they were colluding in such a fashion, fork 'em - bring down the hammer.
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I hope there is due process in all of this.

So many characters involved here. Burry, Ken Griffin (Citadel - the Hedge Fund and Marker Maker), Steve Cohen (Point 72 Hedge Fund), Gabe (Melvin Capital), Robinhood and most other retail brokerages, Keith Gil (DFV), CNBC, Wall Street trade publishers (SeekingAlpha etc), Reddit, and many more.

At least Christian Bale can reprise his role in the next Big Short movie. He’s been so tied to GME too. He was long on GME dating back to 2019. He wrote to the GameStop board to do a share buyback program (which they did). He eventually sold in mid January 2021. So I don’t know if he is subpoenaed as an expert witness or as someone who was very involved with all of this.
 
superchuck500 said:
I'm thinking western NC or VA in the sort of Roanoke down to Boone and over to Greensboro - that sort of triangle, but definitely not pure rural. I think the Charleston area has significant risk of sea-level rise in low-lying areas and even downtown, which is at substantial flooding risk. But based on where we are (not on the peninsula) and its insurability, I'm fine with the situation. Interestingly, though a major hurricane strike is always possible, I think that the geometry for a major strike in CHS sets up far less favorably (for a strike) than places like the Gulf Coast, where the geometry just isn't favorable at all. I wonder if you agree with that.

The Nebraska thing is really interesting - from a long term perspective. Is Bill Gates really buying up large tracks of Nebraska sitting on quality water? Damn.
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I just bought in upstate SC in the Greenville area. Western NC is stunning and I think NC might be the most geological diverse state east of the MS river. Looked at properties in most of the towns and it was too rich for my blood.

I worked in Agriculture in Canada for a few years. If warmer weather keeps happening then Canada is expected to see tremendous growth in farmable land in the prairies (AB, SK, MB). Just think of how much land you'd get if you pushed farming just 50 kilometres further north and increase the productivity of the land that is currently on the northern end of where people are already farming.

Ive also read about the rain divide zone that splits through Nebraska, Kansas, Dakotas and up into Canada. I've heard that the rain divide line has been pushing further east though. https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/dividing-line-past-present-and-future-100th-meridian/
 
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HEI too. Of course, for the past year it had been mostly sideways.

But right now, anything in the 120's is likely a buying opportunity.
 

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