The Investment Thread (5 Viewers)

The market is taking it on the chin today.

I sold off a couple shares of NVDA last week to take profits. Down like 5% right now. DFS (Discover) took a hard hit. as well as the broader market. A lot of good gains I've had have just been wiped out or nearly so.
 
The market is taking it on the chin today.

I sold off a couple shares of NVDA last week to take profits. Down like 5% right now. DFS (Discover) took a hard hit. as well as the broader market. A lot of good gains I've had have just been wiped out or nearly so.

Dow is down 1.5%.
 
I opened those two put positions in WYNN and SWKS. If disruption in China continues for another two weeks or more - which I think the odds of that are very high - I think those will do well.

I know I said I was done but I can't resist a sudden disruption event.
 
I jumped on ABBV, CLX and opened puts on WYNN and RCL.

Abbvia makes a HIV drug that the Chinese are using to treat Wuhan. Figure I'll ride it up for a few days and then get out with the expectation that it will not work to treat the virus. Chlorox is a safe play that should do well longer term. Royal Caribbean is one I can see that just get abused since they do a lot of business in China and under the assumption that the virus continues to spread nobody will want to look at a cruise ship.

WYNN was already beat up and may end up burning me. It's already bounced back considerably.
 
The market is taking it on the chin today.

I sold off a couple shares of NVDA last week to take profits. Down like 5% right now. DFS (Discover) took a hard hit. as well as the broader market. A lot of good gains I've had have just been wiped out or nearly so.

im waiting to see if this is today only - if not, im gonna load up on some discounted stocks. BABA was moving well til Wuhan.
 
im waiting to see if this is today only - if not, im gonna load up on some discounted stocks. BABA was moving well til Wuhan.
Really big week for earnings with companies like Google, Facebook and Apple reporting. If they report good and the market isn't able to hold ground that'll be a really bad sign. The virus isn't going away anytime soon, it is still accelerating and will likely be a long term downward pressure IMO. Depending on how long it takes for things to level out, could be some really good buying ops.
 
im waiting to see if this is today only - if not, im gonna load up on some discounted stocks. BABA was moving well til Wuhan.

I wouldn't touch China exposure on the long side right now.

I think right now, February 5 is the earliest I would think that we could know how contained this thing is. They shut down traffic from Wuhan and then "sealed off" (if that's even possible) Hubei on or about January 22. With an incubation period of up to 14 days, prudence requires at least waiting until that period has cleared.

There's a lot that can happen in the meantime.
 
Well my FA just called and to play it safe, he got me in EEM and QQQ ( etfs that track Nasdaq 100 ). Picked up a handful of NVDA too.

His line of thinking was we have endured 5 days of red in the market and usually that is about the extent. Said if it continues we still have some cash leftover from todays buys and we still got todays buys at a discount. Im not even attempting to time this market. So i just defer to his insight lol.

b, yeah some pretty big results coming this week so that may assuage the fears. But as you said, if it dont, look out.
 
I opened those two put positions in WYNN and SWKS. If disruption in China continues for another two weeks or more - which I think the odds of that are very high - I think those will do well.

I know I said I was done but I can't resist a sudden disruption event.

How much of a drop do you want to see before exercising the put on WYNN?
 
How much of a drop do you want to see before exercising the put on WYNN?

I took a Feb. 7 expiration, so it's a close watcher. Air Macau has cancelled all flights through February 1. They have already closed the border to Hubei residents and they'll probably go ahead and close for all soon.

I'm going to hang on to it at least until there's some positive news (all the trends are negative now). But unless something changes to the good, I think I'll just have to watch the stock action relative to the put trading price.
 
WYNN was actually up in after-hours and into the open . . . which I think is just plain idiotic, especially after the Air Macau announcement.

Those gains already coming off.
 
The China exposure stocks are bouncing today because analysts think the fear is overblown and not likely to have significant impact on valuations.

I think they're failing to understand what a 14-day incubation period means for an outbreak.
 
The China exposure stocks are bouncing today because analysts think the fear is overblown and not likely to have significant impact on valuations.

I think they're failing to understand what a 14-day incubation period means for an outbreak.
Yeah, there's no way it holds up long term for companies THAT exposed to Chinese travel. US market I understand the bounce, almost to 48 hours without any new cases in the USA.
 
I can't believe that the buyers are keeping WYNN's price level where it is. Traffic to Macau is now down over 90%. The casinos are empty. As long as the virus is still spreading, you can't start counting quarantine days to look for an end. Those casinos are going to be empty for weeks.

I added to my put position, brought my basis down.
 
I'm glad I shed some NVDA while it was $250ish.. but also glad I hung on to some, since they've recovered so fast.

DFS is the one that hurts.. I thought about getting out a while ago, didn't expect such a blood bath.. now I'm hanging on for the eventual rebound.

PBW is still doing well, despite the blip. I think that's a good longer term hold, since clean energy seems to be the way even most power providers are going. Florida has built a pretty substantial solar plant (or do they call them farms?).
 

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