The Investment Thread (11 Viewers)

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efil4stnias said:
so i can open my eyes now?
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I dont know, think the market is really scared they may have underestimated coronavirus. Q1 is gone and Q2 is under pressure now with 4 countries facing outbreaks.

Sentiment is central banks will throw so much money at it that itll fill the gap which is keeping the market up. I'm not sure either way. Just know if the market tanks then gold will go up. If the banks spray money all over the world then gold will go up. I'm still same place I was in June, we just swapped trade war for coronavirus.

Buying dips in NUGT and taking profits on the way back up, rinse and repeat with a very cash heavy portfolio.



Sentiment went from meh, it's just the cold to it's just a couple week impact to it may last a month to oh sheet China is locked down. Then consensus was it would be like SARS then it would impact Q1, then Q1 is basically wiped out and now concerns are about Q2. While this was happening the market kept running into record highs. Really though, think the fed needs to cut rates fast and try to kick it down the road a few weeks and reevaluate.
 
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With conferences cancelling world wide at the moment decided to jump on Slack. Wish it wouldn't have jumped so much this morning on the news Uber just awarded them a large contract and is making Slack it's default company but also think video conferencing is about to blow up with expos and group conferences coming to an abrupt end. Something that I think could result in long term changes.
 
Money is pouring into the US bond market, bonds are pushing all time lows and plummeting. Gold is screaming up. Markets appear to be at a tipping point as more and more companies continue to warn of coronavirus impacts. China continues to push work stoppages farther out and supply chains are getting ripped to shreds. Japan and Korea are now cancelling widespread events and starting to close theme parks. Cruise companies are feeling pressure to cancel cruises throughout Asia and airliners are feeling the pressure on flights to Japan and Korea. If Japan and Korea get shut down to air travel then it damn near shuts down all of Asia with China already closed.

Vix is spiking, stock markets are all down about 1% but feel like we will see a bigger sell off continue through the day as I can't imagine people wanting to have money trapped over the weekend with Beijing, Korea, Iran and Japan all with rapid increases in cases.

Wall St. is finally realizing they have severely underestimated the coronavirus. I really feel like this will force the Feds hand on a rate cut but I'm not sure if it'll be too late.

Not trying to sound doom and gloom because I don't feel like this will create a market crash but I do think we'll see at least a short term correction and a continued redistribution away from virus exposed stocks to safer plays.

Still loving gold and feel like it's still very early in it's bull run. It's only up about 30% and historic gold runs go well beyond that.
 
These guys finally see what I've been talking about the last 6 months. Dollar up and gold is up. Dollar's strength has been holding gold back but it's been still moving up against a strong dollar. Reason for this, the dollar is strong because all the other currencies are weak due to global QE. The dollar is strong against the other basket of currencies but why is the dollar so strong when we've had incredibly low rates and massive amounts of liquidity for a decade. I feel like gold is still playing catch up to this. If and when the dollar turns then gold could really go racing. I'm not going sound like one of those old gold bug dudes calling for gold $10k but historical gold runs usually go up more than 500% and right now we're on a run up that is in the 35% range.
 
Futures down a lot, dow set to open more than 600 points down.

Gold making another huge run up and is in a full breakout with little resistance up to all time highs.

IMF revised China's growth down but only from 6% to 5.6%, most are seeing this as a farce, you don't post a quarter like China is having and still get year on year growth.
asia.nikkei.com

IMF downgrades China GDP growth outlook to 5.6%

G-20 gathers as virus shock looms on global economy
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com

Euro stocks are down 2-4% and Asian stocks are once again down 1-2%.

Fed may have waited too long to cut rates, been saying it for a week. Once this gets rolling a .25 basis point cut isn't going to do much.

The Trillion dollar question at this point is if seasonal changes can slow down coronavirus but it may have already hit a tipping point for a lot of countries that were already on the brink of recession. If you think it warmer weather will stop it, then there may be a buying opportunity in the coming week or two. If you think it wont then the markets have a long way to go before finding a bottom.
 
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bclemms said:
Futures down a lot, dow set to open more than 600 points down.

Gold making another huge run up and is in a full breakout with little resistance up to all time highs.

IMF revised China's growth down but only from 6% to 5.6%, most are seeing this as a farce, you don't post a quarter like China is having and still get year on year growth.
asia.nikkei.com

IMF downgrades China GDP growth outlook to 5.6%

G-20 gathers as virus shock looms on global economy
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com

Euro stocks are down 2-4% and Asian stocks are once again down 1-2%.

Fed may have waited too long to cut rates, been saying it for a week. Once this gets rolling a .25 basis point cut isn't going to do much.

The Trillion dollar question at this point is if seasonal changes can slow down coronavirus but it may have already hit a tipping point for a lot of countries that were already on the brink of recession. If you think it warmer weather will stop it, then there may be a buying opportunity in the coming week or two. If you think it wont then the markets have a long way to go before finding a bottom.
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I've been slowly pulling money out.

I should have stuck to my guns and sold NVDA at anything north of $300. Held, now they are staring at $275. I think I'll just go long. I already took some profits earlier before their pop to 315 ish.
 
I'll give it a couple days, and see what buying opportunities present themselves.
 
bclemms said:
Futures down a lot, dow set to open more than 600 points down.

Gold making another huge run up and is in a full breakout with little resistance up to all time highs.

IMF revised China's growth down but only from 6% to 5.6%, most are seeing this as a farce, you don't post a quarter like China is having and still get year on year growth.
asia.nikkei.com

IMF downgrades China GDP growth outlook to 5.6%

G-20 gathers as virus shock looms on global economy
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com

Euro stocks are down 2-4% and Asian stocks are once again down 1-2%.

Fed may have waited too long to cut rates, been saying it for a week. Once this gets rolling a .25 basis point cut isn't going to do much.

The Trillion dollar question at this point is if seasonal changes can slow down coronavirus but it may have already hit a tipping point for a lot of countries that were already on the brink of recession. If you think it warmer weather will stop it, then there may be a buying opportunity in the coming week or two. If you think it wont then the markets have a long way to go before finding a bottom.
Click to expand...

Friday was the day to enact stop losses.

I got so busy at work i totally forgot to call my FA to get them in. Im kicking myself right now and cannot BELIEVE that i missed it.

Im doing today because until some really good news comes out, market is gonna bleed out. Today is the initial "cut". If it doesnt get attention to get stitched up, all we can do is apply pressure to mitigate the bleed until a doc comes to suture it up (the"good news" )
 
efil4stnias said:
Friday was the day to enact stop losses.

I got so busy at work i totally forgot to call my FA to get them in. Im kicking myself right now and cannot BELIEVE that i missed it.

Im doing today because until some really good news comes out, market is gonna bleed out. Today is the initial "cut". If it doesnt get attention to get stitched up, all we can do is apply pressure to mitigate the bleed until a doc comes to suture it up (the"good news" )
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The market is still severely underrating the impacts. I think today is just the tip. I'm looking for 20% impact but what I have to consider is how much did the virus hold the market back because it was set for a big run? The USA domino is going to be the one that really makes the markets look for a bottom and I don't think it will be very much longer before it happens.

Beyond that the big question for me is will we see a bounce and recovery or will this set off a global recession?
 
bclemms said:
The market is still severely underrating the impacts. I think today is just the tip. I'm looking for 20% impact but what I have to consider is how much did the virus hold the market back because it was set for a big run? The USA domino is going to be the one that really makes the markets look for a bottom and I don't think it will be very much longer before it happens.

Beyond that the big question for me is will we see a bounce and recovery or will this set off a global recession?
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looks like a handful of my stocks are paring early losses a bit.

But im not playing around this time. Stop losses going in today. I fully agree that once this hits US soil and a better understanding of just how virulent this COVID 19 is, the search for bottom begins. And im not looking to lose 20% of my valuation. In fact, im trying to set myslef up with cash for when that 10,15 or 20% arrives. And no one outside of Cramer ( and Carl ) are really speaking to the supply chain issues. Shoot, CNBC just played snippets of Warren Buffets interview where he just found out last week one of his companies will have supply chain interruptions and Cramer HAMMERED on about 48 pharma mfgs located IN WUHAN. Even he tried to get extra meds for himself and his doc said none available ( didnt say what meds ). But tried to put a candy coating ( which was him basically not wanting to ADD to the FEAR this am in the Market )

And if my stop losses never get enacted, good.

But like you, i agree that this is merely the beginning ( re COVID outside China ). The other aspect is the relationship of warmer weather vs transmission.
 
I held out on putting money in the market since early Jan.

@bclemms Looks like both your Gilead and NUGT buys will work.
 
Monday bloody monday!


I already have about 40% of my IRA in Cash now. Made moves last week.

I'm in a few things long, so I'll ride this out with what I kept, and also debate about buying back in. NVDA is still too high to buy more of.
 
stop losses in.

i had a 32% gain in 2019. im ok with 27% ( 5% off current stock price is my stop losses )

Lets see what happens going forward but at least now i dont have to teeter on a phone call to sell.
 

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