The Investment Thread (8 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

I understand the need for the Feds to relax the penalty for early withdrawal from retirement funds, but I wish they also relaxed the limit for IRA contributions.

if you understand that the "Stimulus" was to enable folks to dip into their retirement to help them "bridge the gap" because their particular industry has been hit hard, you can also understand that it wasnt designed to allow others in a separate industry, that isnt affected, to increase their wealth.

The stimulus was designed to help folks now, not 20 years from now.

 

[LonghornSaint]

if you understand that the "Stimulus" was to enable folks to dip into their retirement to help them "bridge the gap" because their particular industry has been hit hard, you can also understand that it wasnt designed to allow others in a separate industry, that isnt affected, to increase their wealth.

The stimulus was designed to help folks now, not 20 years from now.

I totally agree, and did not mean to come across as callous to their situation.

 

[Tapxe]

This guy doesn't seem to see any good news for a few quarters. He's been conservative in his estimates and models so far. He makes some good points. I'm sure there's another side to the story as well though.

Hell is Coming and We Sold Out Our National Security For A Few Dollars

Executive Summary: Two weeks ago we predicted that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 would reach 20,000 by April 15th. The following article explains why. Article: I am furious and frustrated. Once the greatest country on the face of this planet, the United States is going hat in hand to...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[bclemms]

This guy doesn't seem to see any good news for a few quarters. He's been conservative in his estimates and models so far. He makes some good points. I'm sure there's another side to the story as well though.

Hell is Coming and We Sold Out Our National Security For A Few Dollars

Executive Summary: Two weeks ago we predicted that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 would reach 20,000 by April 15th. The following article explains why. Article: I am furious and frustrated. Once the greatest country on the face of this planet, the United States is going hat in hand to...

finance.yahoo.com

I've seen a few models and these models are finally getting somewhat accurate now that we know more about the disease and how different social distancing measures impact spread. Still some struggles since our data isn't overly reliable given the lag in test results and limited testing based on the population. So basically there are a few ways to get cases down to near 0 using stay at home orders. There are some suggestions that it takes 49-71 days to get down to 0 cases but that is also with a lot more strict approach than we've been taking. Using summer as a buffer, you can also break those two stay at home orders up into two 2-3 different periods with 7-10 day gaps without increasing the curve or length very much.

Without getting the number of cases to near 0 then we'll be in and out of shutdown until next summer. Even if we get cases to near 0, it only takes one idiot or cult/church to really screw things up. So no matter what, the economy isn't going to be "turned back on" for at least 6 more weeks and it's more likely to look like a generator turning back on than a full grid lighting up. If we were going to try and get to near 0 cases then we would have already shut things down. I'm guessing we're going to have what looks like rolling blackouts on the economy for quite some time and the only thing that is going to solve it is a treatment, vaccine or herd immunity. Testing for covid and antibody tests are by far the most important thing we can do outside of finding a treatment or a vaccine. For that reason, I am short the market still. The next 20 days are going to be daily death tolls in the thousands and sentiment is going to be really bad. The next $2 Trillion bailout is going to be the next thing to prop the market up but we can't keep doing that every 4-6 weeks without risking serious damage to the dollar and our national security.

 

[efil4stnias]

I totally agree, and did not mean to come across as callous to their situation.

No worries. I was just adding my thoughts on it.

I get the desire to succeed in times like this so I didn't take it as callous.

 

[bclemms]

So futures are soaring on the news that NYC, California, Washington and Colorado may all have hit the case apex and beginning the backside of the curve. Not so sure on NYC, Sunday data has been way low each of the last 3 weeks. The rally is ignoring a huge pile of bad news, particularly economic and the latest models showing that we are either going to have to do a 70 day lockdown or have rolling lockdowns until a vaccine comes out. This feels like a big short squeeze but with news of a 2nd stimulus package and a possible infrastructure package, we could have seen a bottom and just going to print our way through this. I know my arse getting squeezed hard. That opening bell is going to be brutal for me.

 

[Rickboy]

So futures are soaring on the news that NYC, California, Washington and Colorado may all have hit the case apex and beginning the backside of the curve. Not so sure on NYC, Sunday data has been way low each of the last 3 weeks. The rally is ignoring a huge pile of bad news, particularly economic and the latest models showing that we are either going to have to do a 70 day lockdown or have rolling lockdowns until a vaccine comes out. This feels like a big short squeeze but with news of a 2nd stimulus package and a possible infrastructure package, we could have seen a bottom and just going to print our way through this. I know my arse getting squeezed hard. That opening bell is going to be brutal for me.

There’s also news that the Russians and Saudi’s are close to an agreement and Trump made a threat to tariff oil imports if they don’t settle it.

 

[Saint_Ward]

This guy doesn't seem to see any good news for a few quarters. He's been conservative in his estimates and models so far. He makes some good points. I'm sure there's another side to the story as well though.

Hell is Coming and We Sold Out Our National Security For A Few Dollars

Executive Summary: Two weeks ago we predicted that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 would reach 20,000 by April 15th. The following article explains why. Article: I am furious and frustrated. Once the greatest country on the face of this planet, the United States is going hat in hand to...

finance.yahoo.com

Great article. I'll have to look up more of his stuff.

He's right about shoving too much manufacturing to China. Everyone trying to save a buck, bit those profits not going to any of us (he didnt say that, it is my addition)

 

[superchuck500]

So futures are soaring on the news that NYC, California, Washington and Colorado may all have hit the case apex and beginning the backside of the curve. Not so sure on NYC, Sunday data has been way low each of the last 3 weeks. The rally is ignoring a huge pile of bad news, particularly economic and the latest models showing that we are either going to have to do a 70 day lockdown or have rolling lockdowns until a vaccine comes out. This feels like a big short squeeze but with news of a 2nd stimulus package and a possible infrastructure package, we could have seen a bottom and just going to print our way through this. I know my arse getting squeezed hard. That opening bell is going to be brutal for me.

I'm back on the long side as of thursday and friday - but I will definitely take profits if this looks like a little bear rally (we had one two weeks ago). Not sure if we will re-test bottoms but we may be getting into a trading range for the next few weeks. Volatility but within a range is a good time to trade.

 

[bclemms]

Bill Gates says we need a nationwide shutdown for at least 10 more weeks to fight coronavirus: 'The window for making important decisions hasn't closed'

"The window for making important decisions hasn't closed," Bill Gates argued, calling for action informed "science, data and medical professionals."

news.yahoo.com

When this keeps being repeated by experts globally and the models all indicate a rapid rebound in cases if stay at home orders are lifted, I just don't see how the Federal Government can support businesses and taxpayers through this to the point the markets hold up. I mean, if this is the case are we really in a better spot right now than we were in 2017? That's what the markets are saying with current levels.

 

[Bayouboy]

Can our economy survive 10 more weeks of lockdown?

 

[efil4stnias]

Thats it. I give up on trying to understand this market. I have absolutely no idea how we are up almost 5% on a day coming off a weekend where the Surgeon General says this and next will be quite sobering for americans.

Maybe in need to change my strategy to "contrarian" lol

 

[efil4stnias]

Can our economy survive 10 more weeks of lockdown?

No. I dont see how it would be possible.

 

[efil4stnias]

Bill Gates says we need a nationwide shutdown for at least 10 more weeks to fight coronavirus: 'The window for making important decisions hasn't closed'

"The window for making important decisions hasn't closed," Bill Gates argued, calling for action informed "science, data and medical professionals."

news.yahoo.com

When this keeps being repeated by experts globally and the models all indicate a rapid rebound in cases if stay at home orders are lifted, I just don't see how the Federal Government can support businesses and taxpayers through this to the point the markets hold up. I mean, if this is the case are we really in a better spot right now than we were in 2017? That's what the markets are saying with current levels.

so ill play contrarian here.

10 more weeks of lockdown. 10 more weeks of folks pay being slashed in half or more. 10 more weeks of bills piling up. 10 more weeks of the constant stress of "what will we do, how will we make ends meet"

I get what he is saying. And while i would absolutely agree, before ANY of that, tell me how you, me and the rest that work to make a living, darn near paycheck to paycheck are supposed to meet our debt obligations, keep food on the table AND look for a silver lining?

I get what he is saying, but he, his kids, his grandkids and another 4 generations after THEM are set for life.

If we are going to talk about extended lockdowns, then YOU MUST also address the economics of it as well.

 

[bclemms]

Can our economy survive 10 more weeks of lockdown?

It's really not about the economy, it's about the dollar. I mean, why not just give every household $100,000 and let everyone stay home? Sounds absurd but now there is talk about a $6 Trillion package on top of the $2 Trillion package. Take that amount of money and divide it by number of households and it's $100,000.

So if we do that, are we just going to continue to ignore debt? If we ever expect to pay that debt down it's not going to be a friendly environment for business. Either going to have to strip government spending or hike taxes or both. It's simply not sustainable either way we go. I just don't see how we can avoid a complete economic meltdown, a reset of sorts with a complete change of mindset. Right now, we're just kicking that can as far down the road as possible. With all that said, we've been kicking that can down the road for 2 decades. Each crisis just amplifies it exponentially. We are still seeing huge consequences from the financial crisis. The financial crisis was led along by the policy from the dot com bust. We haven't taken our medicine since the 90's. It's painfully obvious, it's the debt stupid. I keep saying it over and over and over. The next crisis could be tomorrow. It could be another pandemic, this is a 1 in 100 year pandemic, just because we had one this year doesn't mean we can't have another one next year. We could have an epic disaster, there are many that are long overdue, much like a pandemic was just a few months ago. At what point does the credit card get declined?

We've removed the pain from the gain.