The Investment Thread (6 Viewers)

[bclemms]

Brandon, have you watched any of General Robert Spalding's interviews on China? Or read his book?

Watched the whole thing today. I agree with a lot of what he is saying. China is 100%, without a question, in a financial war with the USA. They want to keep our economy going just enough to keep theirs running until they get their population to a consumer level that we have. They don't trust the USA, they are absolutely in our networks and they are taking US technology and using it against us. They are acting under "Emerging Markets' rules in the WTO as the world's 2nd largest economy giving them unfair trade advantages. They are manipulating currency and most importantly they are winning the tech war in some of the most important sectors on the planet in 5G, robotics, drones, data aquisition, etc.

At the same time, the USA has been letting them do it in exchange for cheap goods that have fueled the consumer and companies.

I don't fear the Chinese, I fear the USA. We quite literally control our own destiny but we're becoming more like China while China is becoming more like the USA in a sense. Until we deal with our own political corruption and our own corrupt economical mindsets, the Chinese will have the advantage. Ironically, I think Covid could serve as the turning point that may have otherwise lingered for decades.

As for staying on point in the investment thread, this is why China US tensions creat huge market swings. China has the ability to collapse our country into this incredible black hole and they could do it one day. They have nukes pointed at every street in America except they aren't in the form of a war head on a missile. China could cut off exports to the USA and pull investments and quite literally collapse our society to the point we wouldn't be able to feed, medicate or produce anything tech related to meet demand for a couple of years. We also have that power over China but they are far more likely to push the big red button.

 

[Maxp]

I think COVID being a turning point for our country and economy is the most important issue we are facing right now. We need leadership to force production of strategic interests back to the US and NATO allies. Tech, medical supplies, communications, and shipping all need to be made and supported locally.

 

[superchuck500]

Watched the whole thing today. I agree with a lot of what he is saying. China is 100%, without a question, in a financial war with the USA. They want to keep our economy going just enough to keep theirs running until they get their population to a consumer level that we have. They don't trust the USA, they are absolutely in our networks and they are taking US technology and using it against us. They are acting under "Emerging Markets' rules in the WTO as the world's 2nd largest economy giving them unfair trade advantages. They are manipulating currency and most importantly they are winning the tech war in some of the most important sectors on the planet in 5G, robotics, drones, data aquisition, etc.

At the same time, the USA has been letting them do it in exchange for cheap goods that have fueled the consumer and companies.

I don't fear the Chinese, I fear the USA. We quite literally control our own destiny but we're becoming more like China while China is becoming more like the USA in a sense. Until we deal with our own political corruption and our own corrupt economical mindsets, the Chinese will have the advantage. Ironically, I think Covid could serve as the turning point that may have otherwise lingered for decades.

As for staying on point in the investment thread, this is why China US tensions creat huge market swings. China has the ability to collapse our country into this incredible black hole and they could do it one day. They have nukes pointed at every street in America except they aren't in the form of a war head on a missile. China could cut off exports to the USA and pull investments and quite literally collapse our society to the point we wouldn't be able to feed, medicate or produce anything tech related to meet demand for a couple of years. We also have that power over China but they are far more likely to push the big red button.

Foreign policy experts from Asia portray China as still emerging - unsure of itself, not as monolithic as it appears, structurally suspect in some areas, and playing an incremental game. That kind of power-play seems out of character.

 

[bclemms]

I think COVID being a turning point for our country and economy is the most important issue we are facing right now. We need leadership to force production of strategic interests back to the US and NATO allies. Tech, medical supplies, communications, and shipping all need to be made and supported locally.

In the long run, the most important thing facing our country is political divide and corruption. Get those under control and the rest pretty much fixes itself and does so really freaking fast. China, like our Covid response, is simply a symptom of our much bigger problems on the home front. Until we substantially increase the pay of our leaders while removing all the conflicts of interests like lobbying,, insider trading,, campaign contributions,, superpacs and corporate welfare we will continue to struggle. We will never be able to get ahead when politicians will waste tens of millions of taxpayer dollars to get a $10k campaign contribution. The idea that many of the biggest companies in the world don't pay taxes but our middle class does is insanity. The fact that we have been relatively war free the past 10 years and we are running the biggest deficit since WW2 is incredibly frustrating. We keep pushing the iimits of financial sovereignty with the expectation everything will go perfectly. Well, one of these days it will not. Imagine if this virus hit in 2009-2012 as we were coming off the financial crisis. Imagine if the recovery doesn't go as planned and we drag on for years. Imagine if we have a super disaster strike right now like a mega quake in the pacific NW or New Madrid. Imagine if a country starts a war tomorrow. We our running our country in the financial red line when times are bad but we are no longer able to take our foot off the gas and debt is spiraling out of control. We need a leader. We need someone that bring this country together and lead us to being responsible. I just don't see how we can get that done. The Republicans will hate anyone the democrats bring out and vice versa. A thread party would get lit up from both sides. As it Stands right now, a honest politician can't raise enough money to even run for office.

 

[bclemms]

Foreign policy experts from Asia portray China as still emerging - unsure of itself, not as monolithic as it appears, structurally suspect in some areas, and playing an incremental game. That kind of power-play seems out of character.

I'm not saying they would do it, simply they have the capability and having the capability is more important than actually acting on it.

As for still emerging, yes, they can certainly still grow huge amounts. Are they to the point where the WTO should overlook IP theft and given trade concessions like a third world country? If they didn't have the manufacturing infrastructure it may be different but they are the world's conveyor belt.

 

[bclemms]

More on China. Looks like bipartisan support is brewing for sanctions against China. This comes after Trump's speech at the UN last year calling out the Chinese with some pretty big threats if they were to encroach on Hong Kong's Independence but he was extremely hesitant to sign a bipartisan bill to help protect Hong Kong's protestors just a few weeks later. China has been consolidating and building military power throughout Asia and Taiwan and Hong Kong are a thorn in their side. China dropped this on Hong Kong the same day they said that Taiwan would rejoin China but dropped the word peacefully they have been using for years. Hong Kong and Taiwan basically have no military so the only thing that can stop China is the US. I think China goes after Hong Kong and Taiwan right now and dares Trump to stop them. If Trump blows up the trade deal and we start levying sanctions on China it's going to put a huge amount of pressure on the economy and send the markets crashing again. If that happens then Trump's chances at reelection are really done but if he doesn't react the China is blowing up his entire election campaign of being tough on China. At the same time, being tough on China is literally the one issue were there is bipartisan support and Biden will likely be campaigning hard on it and hold Trump's feet to the fire. There is going to be a lot of political pressure.

China will likely face U.S. sanctions over Hong Kong national security law, White House says

The U.S. government could impose sanctions against China, National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien said on Sunday in response to China's announcement of new national security law in Hong Kong that would curtail the city's autonomy and democracy.

www.cnbc.com

Trying not to make this too political, but it's going to be something to watch big time in regards to the markets. As for Hong Kong, the financial sectors will likely just move to Singapore and forget about Hong Kong if no action is taken. If action is taken then it will be an all out economic war between the US and China and greatly disrupt markets and likely supply chains.

I'm guessing we're going to see a lot of rage tweets, lies and threats but little in the way of action between now and the election but nothing is off the table at this point.

 

[bclemms]

Dow futures are up almost 500 points and the markets appear to be breaking out. Tomorrow will likely be a battle between the Bears and Bulls heading into the close. If the SP closes above 3000 then the last bit of resistance it has is at the 3100 level before testing all time highs on the technical end. So technicals combined with good news on the virus front could have the market ready to soar this week. Tensions with China may be the only thing that will hold it back. It's sure starting to look like we are going to get a full W if the 2nd wave hits.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Dow futures are up almost 500 points and the markets appear to be breaking out. Tomorrow will likely be a battle between the Bears and Bulls heading into the close. If the SP closes above 3000 then the last bit of resistance it has is at the 3100 level before testing all time highs on the technical end. So technicals combined with good news on the virus front could have the market ready to soar this week. Tensions with China may be the only thing that will hold it back. It's sure starting to look like we are going to get a full W if the 2nd wave hits.

So, make our money now, then get out later...

 

[bclemms]

So, make our money now, then get out later...

No idea. It could just keep going up. If that chart comparing GDP to Debt to the stock market, then the DOW should be somewhere around 70k by the end of the decade if the whole thing doesn't collapse.

 

[Saint_Ward]

No idea. It could just keep going up. If that chart comparing GDP to Debt to the stock market, then the DOW should be somewhere around 70k by the end of the decade if the whole thing doesn't collapse.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Money is pouring back in.

I timed my DAL purchase poorly (for the short term), but it's already just about back to where I bought it.

TSA screenings have now crossed into the 300k range 3 of the last 5 days. Still no where near the 2.5 million we'd like to see, but it's a lot better than the 80-90k we had a month ago.

 

[James Spader]

Thought you guys might like this:

Putting the Current Oil Price Collapse into Historical Perspective - Liberty Street Economics

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in late January, oil prices have fallen sharply. In this post, we compare recent price declines with those seen in previous oil price collapses, focusing on the drivers of such episodes. In order to do that, we break oil price shocks down into demand...

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

 

[superchuck500]

Thought you guys might like this:

Putting the Current Oil Price Collapse into Historical Perspective - Liberty Street Economics

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in late January, oil prices have fallen sharply. In this post, we compare recent price declines with those seen in previous oil price collapses, focusing on the drivers of such episodes. In order to do that, we break oil price shocks down into demand...

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

WTI is up 40% since that article.

All of this is moving at a very rapid pace. It's hard to have a lot of confidence in how much of it is nothing but forward-looking speculation.

 

[bclemms]

Jumped on some of that GAP short at $9.

I just can't imagine Karen can carry GAP by herself. It's like the worst business model ever. Out of style clothing company in a mall during a pandemic at a time of retail collapse. It's pretty beat up already so anything is possible but that was my one play this morning. Still like my draftkings and beyond meat longs. Also holding USLV long.

So still playing careful and still looking for short ops on these big run ups.

 

[James Spader]

WTI is up 40% since that article.

All of this is moving at a very rapid pace. It's hard to have a lot of confidence in how much of it is nothing but forward-looking speculation.

The article uses Brent not WTI. I am a cynic when it comes to the markets but what do you expect from a regulator. Doing well Super?

I have tons more access to info to anyone. If you guys want some particular info, I can see about getting it (what I am allowed of course, lol).