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I've been running through all the possible scenarios in my head and thought this would be fun to discuss here with everyone else. Now right from the start, I think we all understand the "any given Sunday" principle. With that said, here's where things stand in the NFC and how the rest of the season plays out (in my mind):
WHERE THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW:
(seed, team, overall record, conference record)
#1. Chicago (11-2) (9-0)
#2. New Orleans (9-4) (8-1)
#3. Seattle (8-5) (6-4)
#4. Dallas (8-5) (5-4)
#5. New York Giants (7-6) (6-3)
#6. Philadelphia (7-6) (6-3)
#7. Atlanta (7-6) (5-4)
#8. Minnesota (6-7) (6-4)
#9. Carolina (6-7) (4-6)
REMAINING SCHEDULES (with my projections):
CHICAGO: Tampa (W), @ Detroit (W), Green Bay (W)
NEW ORLEANS: Washington (W), @ Giants (W), Carolina (W)
SEATTLE: San Francisco (W), San Diego (L), @ Tampa Bay (W)
DALLAS: @ Atlanta (W), Philadelphia (W), Detroit (W)
GIANTS: Philadelphia (W), New Orleans (L), @ Washington (W)
PHILLY: @ Giants (L), @ Dallas (L), Atlanta (W)
ATLANTA: Dallas (L), Carolina (W), @ Philadelphia (L)
MINNESOTA: NYJ (L), @ Green Bay (L), @ St. Louis (L)
CAROLINA: Pittsburgh (L), @ Atlanta (L), @ New Orleans (L)
MY FINAL STANDINGS PROJECTION:
(seed, team, overall record, conference record)
#1. Chicago (14-2) (12-0)
#2. New Orleans (12-4) (11-1)
#3. Dallas (11-5) (8-4)
#4. Seattle (10-6) (8-4)
#5. New York Giants (9-7) (8-4)
#6. Philadelphia (8-8) (8-4)
#7. Atlanta (8-8) (6-6)
#8. Minnesota (6-10) (6-6)
#9. Carolina (6-10) (4-8)
PLAYOFF MATCHUPS (according to my projections):
(#6) Philadelphia @ (#3) Dallas
(#5) Giants @ (#4) Seattle
(The lower-seeded team of the two winners will play in Chicago in the divisional round. The higher-seeded team will play in New Orleans in the divisional round. In other words, New Orleans won't play Philadelphia in the divisional round for sure, and Chicago will not play Dallas in the divisional round for sure).
BREAKDOWN:
Chicago will win the #1 seed barring some strange collapse. Their schedule is just too easy the rest of the way.
New Orleans can afford to lose one more game and still receive the 1st round bye because we will still have the better conference record than the Cowboys or Seahawks. In other words, if we lose to the Giants, it doesn't effect my playoff projections at all unless Dallas loses one of their remaining games (which I don't see happening).
Dallas will probably end up with the #3 seed. Now, if Atlanta or Philadelphia beats them, which can happen, that could potentially throw this whole thing out of whack. But I think Dallas is too strong for the Falcons and Eagles, and the Cowboys are going to be focused after last Sunday's bludgeoning.
Seattle is not playing great football right now. But they have two easy opponents in San Francisco and Tampa Bay. They also play San Diego which I think is a sure loss. Seattle gets the 4th seed.
New York plays both Philadelphia and New Orleans and then it closes out with Washington. I see the Philly game as a tough, meaningful game for both teams but I think the Giants will come out on top. I see the Saints beating New York, but if New York wins, that won't effect the playoff picture (if Dallas wins out, which I think is what will happen).
Philadelphia is really the "WILD" card in this entire scenario. They have three HUGE games that will have a big impact on how things shake-out. I don't see them beating the Giants and Dallas, but they close out the season with Atlanta at home. That Atlanta game, in my opinion, will end up determining who gets the final seed. I see Philadelphia winning.
Atlanta has three tough games ahead of them in Dallas, Carolina, & Philadelphia. If they win two of them, I think they'll get in. Obviously as Saints fans, we'd like for the Falcons to beat Dallas, but realistically I don't think the Falcons will fare very well against them (especially with Vick being their only running threat now). Their season will come down to the Philly game, and as I mentioned, I see Philly winning (although it should be an awesome game). Atlanta will watch the playoffs from home.
Minnesota and Carolina are playing bad football right now and they need a lot of help to get to the playoffs. Both of these teams will need to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs (Minnesota has a better shot than Carolina because they have an easier schedule and a better conference record). Minnesota could end up being the surprise team here. If Philly falters and Minnesota wins 2 of their last 3, they have a chance to get in ahead of Atlanta because they'll have the better conference record (that is, if my projection for Atlanta is true). With that said, Minnesota isn't looking good at all and I don't think they have what it takes.
So.....these are my thoughts. Feel free to agree/disagree and add your own thoughts/projections.
WHERE THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW:
(seed, team, overall record, conference record)
#1. Chicago (11-2) (9-0)
#2. New Orleans (9-4) (8-1)
#3. Seattle (8-5) (6-4)
#4. Dallas (8-5) (5-4)
#5. New York Giants (7-6) (6-3)
#6. Philadelphia (7-6) (6-3)
#7. Atlanta (7-6) (5-4)
#8. Minnesota (6-7) (6-4)
#9. Carolina (6-7) (4-6)
REMAINING SCHEDULES (with my projections):
CHICAGO: Tampa (W), @ Detroit (W), Green Bay (W)
NEW ORLEANS: Washington (W), @ Giants (W), Carolina (W)
SEATTLE: San Francisco (W), San Diego (L), @ Tampa Bay (W)
DALLAS: @ Atlanta (W), Philadelphia (W), Detroit (W)
GIANTS: Philadelphia (W), New Orleans (L), @ Washington (W)
PHILLY: @ Giants (L), @ Dallas (L), Atlanta (W)
ATLANTA: Dallas (L), Carolina (W), @ Philadelphia (L)
MINNESOTA: NYJ (L), @ Green Bay (L), @ St. Louis (L)
CAROLINA: Pittsburgh (L), @ Atlanta (L), @ New Orleans (L)
MY FINAL STANDINGS PROJECTION:
(seed, team, overall record, conference record)
#1. Chicago (14-2) (12-0)
#2. New Orleans (12-4) (11-1)
#3. Dallas (11-5) (8-4)
#4. Seattle (10-6) (8-4)
#5. New York Giants (9-7) (8-4)
#6. Philadelphia (8-8) (8-4)
#7. Atlanta (8-8) (6-6)
#8. Minnesota (6-10) (6-6)
#9. Carolina (6-10) (4-8)
PLAYOFF MATCHUPS (according to my projections):
(#6) Philadelphia @ (#3) Dallas
(#5) Giants @ (#4) Seattle
(The lower-seeded team of the two winners will play in Chicago in the divisional round. The higher-seeded team will play in New Orleans in the divisional round. In other words, New Orleans won't play Philadelphia in the divisional round for sure, and Chicago will not play Dallas in the divisional round for sure).
BREAKDOWN:
Chicago will win the #1 seed barring some strange collapse. Their schedule is just too easy the rest of the way.
New Orleans can afford to lose one more game and still receive the 1st round bye because we will still have the better conference record than the Cowboys or Seahawks. In other words, if we lose to the Giants, it doesn't effect my playoff projections at all unless Dallas loses one of their remaining games (which I don't see happening).
Dallas will probably end up with the #3 seed. Now, if Atlanta or Philadelphia beats them, which can happen, that could potentially throw this whole thing out of whack. But I think Dallas is too strong for the Falcons and Eagles, and the Cowboys are going to be focused after last Sunday's bludgeoning.
Seattle is not playing great football right now. But they have two easy opponents in San Francisco and Tampa Bay. They also play San Diego which I think is a sure loss. Seattle gets the 4th seed.
New York plays both Philadelphia and New Orleans and then it closes out with Washington. I see the Philly game as a tough, meaningful game for both teams but I think the Giants will come out on top. I see the Saints beating New York, but if New York wins, that won't effect the playoff picture (if Dallas wins out, which I think is what will happen).
Philadelphia is really the "WILD" card in this entire scenario. They have three HUGE games that will have a big impact on how things shake-out. I don't see them beating the Giants and Dallas, but they close out the season with Atlanta at home. That Atlanta game, in my opinion, will end up determining who gets the final seed. I see Philadelphia winning.
Atlanta has three tough games ahead of them in Dallas, Carolina, & Philadelphia. If they win two of them, I think they'll get in. Obviously as Saints fans, we'd like for the Falcons to beat Dallas, but realistically I don't think the Falcons will fare very well against them (especially with Vick being their only running threat now). Their season will come down to the Philly game, and as I mentioned, I see Philly winning (although it should be an awesome game). Atlanta will watch the playoffs from home.
Minnesota and Carolina are playing bad football right now and they need a lot of help to get to the playoffs. Both of these teams will need to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs (Minnesota has a better shot than Carolina because they have an easier schedule and a better conference record). Minnesota could end up being the surprise team here. If Philly falters and Minnesota wins 2 of their last 3, they have a chance to get in ahead of Atlanta because they'll have the better conference record (that is, if my projection for Atlanta is true). With that said, Minnesota isn't looking good at all and I don't think they have what it takes.
So.....these are my thoughts. Feel free to agree/disagree and add your own thoughts/projections.
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