The NFL is all about efficiency (1 Viewer)

[showtimesaints]

The bottom 7 teams have a combined Ats w% of 36% with the top 4 having a combined 67% ats w%.

There definitely is an edge with teams having a higher PPP margin leading directly to ats w%.

Some valuable info shared by bclemms!

 

[BoNcHiE]

Just to further the point I'm making and to add further context to what this results in:

2009 = Won 5 games when we scored under 28 points

2010 = Won 5 games when we scored under 28 points (and 3 games in which we scored under 20 points)

2011 = Won 4 games when we scored under 28 points

2013 = Won 5 games when we scored under 28 points

What do all those years have in common? We made the playoffs.

Even with the best offense in the history of the NFL, we had to win 4 games in which the offense didn't score more than 27 points to get that 13-3 record.

2016 defense:

Total yardage = 27th

But...

Points per drive = 32nd
Yards per drive = 32nd
Points per play = 32nd

So why did our total yardage improve this year? Because our offense was once again elite, scoring an average of 30 a game (compared to 25 in 2014/2015) and we were 2nd in points per drive. That means the defense was on the field less. They had to defend less drives and less plays. So you see a general yardage improvement, but in efficiency we saw no improvement at all.

This doesn't even touch the situational issues.

 

[bclemms]

So, here we go with the stat of all stats. Let's examine which two teams were miles better than the rest, then let's look and see who is in the Super Bowl.
https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/points-per-play-differential/2016/


Back to that efficiency point. This stat shows just how important it is on the field but how can a team be efficient on the field if they aren't efficient when fielding a team. The Saints are pace to lead the league in dead money for the 3rd straight season. Not only that, they led the 2016 year by a massive margin. It's so bad that I'm pretty sure the Saints have more dead money over the last 3 seasons than the next two worst teams combined. We've been so inefficient with the cap space that it breaks the scale. We are literally a statistical anomaly. On a chart, we are the team that goes over the scale. If you adjust the scale it makes every other team look small and close together. It has been that bad.

There's always next year but we are already leading the way. Fortunately, most of these cap mistakes are from prior years and it looks like we've learned our lesson. Also, while leading the way in dead money, it's a 4 times less than last year. It's at least manageable.

 

[Saintshizzle]

But, things happen...and times offenses will be inefficient. That's where a good-to-great defense comes into play. It takes pressure off the offense to be the best or most efficient in the league, yet still gives them a hell of a shot at the SB.

 

[SunshinePumper]

It's also the difference between a QB who wins the MVP and won that isn't even voted to the Pro Bowl.

No it's not, not if the QB I assume you're talking about is Natty Light.

The Falcons had one game this year where they scored less than 27 and won, their game against the offensively challenged Broncos. One. They had one game where they scored less than 20 points. For all the undeserved ballyhoo about the Cons’ “Seattle-like” defense (calling a defense that finished 27th in the league in both scoring D and defensive DVOA “Seattle-like” is a bloody insult to Seattle’s defense) the main difference between Atlanta’s 15 season and now that got them to the Owl is that their offensive DVOA catapulted from 23rd last year to 1st this year. In fact, the difference between Atlanta’s offensive DVOA and ours is 5 points higher than the difference between Atlanta's defensive DVOA and ours.

I'm not saying that we don't need to improve drastically on defense or that we would be better off focusing our efforts on improving offensive efficiency, I'm saying that the fixation on using the Falcons as a cudgel to make points about our team’s or Payton’s deficiencies currently displayed on this board is extremely off base and borders on cuckery. The Falcons have the look and feel of a classic offensive forward team that gets woodshedded in the SB.

So, here we go with the stat of all stats. Let's examine which two teams were miles better than the rest, then let's look and see who is in the Super Bowl.
https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/points-per-play-differential/2016/

The Falcons have also had a few 10 loss seasons to flush any cap mistakes they may have made out of their system...

 

[AgnesT]

Statistically, the Saints offense did a good job, but I have a hard time forgetting the games where they struggled in, which are the ones we ended up losing .

They can't be perfect everytime. That's the point of having a good defense. Teams that have a good defense don't lose when the offense struggles.

 

[TribuneUK]

Real data beats anecdotal evidence every time.

 

[bclemms]

No it's not, not if the QB I assume you're talking about is Natty Light.

The Falcons had one game this year where they scored less than 27 and won, their game against the offensively challenged Broncos. One. They had one game where they scored less than 20 points. For all the undeserved ballyhoo about the Cons’ “Seattle-like” defense (calling a defense that finished 27th in the league in both scoring D and defensive DVOA “Seattle-like” is a bloody insult to Seattle’s defense) the main difference between Atlanta’s 15 season and now that got them to the Owl is that their offensive DVOA catapulted from 23rd last year to 1st this year. In fact, the difference between Atlanta’s offensive DVOA and ours is 5 points higher than the difference between Atlanta's defensive DVOA and ours.

I'm not saying that we don't need to improve drastically on defense or that we would be better off focusing our efforts on improving offensive efficiency, I'm saying that the fixation on using the Falcons as a cudgel to make points about our team’s or Payton’s deficiencies currently displayed on this board is extremely off base and borders on cuckery. The Falcons have the look and feel of a classic offensive forward team that gets woodshedded in the SB.



The Falcons have also had a few 10 loss seasons to flush any cap mistakes they may have made out of their system...

I wasn't talking about Matt Ryan specifically, could have easily been Rodgers or Brady. I posted that a month ago.

I agree with the Falcons getting beat pretty good in the Super Bowl. The Pats have a huge chip on their shoulder, they have a defense that is under appreciated and all the talk right now is about the Falcons. The Pats have been there before. If the Falcons win, they will be bucking a lot of trends. I will say this. If the Falcons win they deserve it. But they wont.

The stuff about the cap, I was just talking about the Saints. I can't make a comparison because I can't think of a single team in history that has had a 3 year run with the amount of dead money the Saints have had. I certainly can't think of a team to absorb that much of a hit with a HOF QB in their prime, it simply defies all logic.