The NFL writers' MVP conundrum.......... (LONG) (1 Viewer)

duckjr78

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The NFL writers are going to have a mess on their hands unless they do something really quickly.

Drew Brees could possibly break multiple major passing records this year, in the same year. He is on pace for 5,600 yards, 45 TD's, and 68% completion percentage. A couple more "Brees-y" games and he could get the completion % in line to challenge his own mark, while demolishing Peyton's farce (sorta) of a yardage record.

All while the Saints struggle to an 8-8 type of record (we hope!).

This leaves the NFL in a bit of a pickle.

Surely they can't give the MVP to Brees, even though he is as statistically dominant as Peyton or Brady or any QB in history. First off, because he's Brees and phooey on him. Secondly, the Saints probably aren't in the playoffs and that wrecks their "winners" thing. But, there's a small chance.

So, who can they manufacture to beat Brees for the MVP?

Tom Brady? How much of a middle finger to the viewing public would that be? To give the MVP to a guy you just fought with for over a year and then suspended for 4 games? Oh, and his team went 3-1 without him. Just sayin'. That said, through 2 games, his rating is 135. something. Wow........ But Brady is the Hulk Hogan of this whole thing. Baby face to heel turn, back again, around a few more times, and finally, to irresistible force.

Von Miller? Don't believe what the media is feeding you. He is having a fine year, to be sure, but they are making him sound like he is lighting the world on fire. He isn't. He is averaging 1.07 sack per game. My math can be bad sometimes, but that puts him on pace for 17. Not even close to the record. If you want to award the MVP to the first defensive player, and only 2nd ever, since Alan freakin' Page, he better put up monster numbers, or else JJ Watt gets to come pound you into oblivion. Not that he deserved it a couple of years ago or anything...... Still, he is becoming a face for the NFL. Especially with those glasses making him look "unique."

Aaron Donald? Having a massive year to be sure, but the same argument for Donald goes that does for Miller. Oh, and his team kinda sucks too. Putting a DT over would simply take too much. You have to make his team play better AND get his stats up into the "WOW" zone. I don't see it happening.

Wentz, Bradford, Carr? Please. None of these guys will statistically be able to keep up any kind of pace, it just doesn't happen. Having nice runs? Sure. But these guys are just mid card guys right now, even if their teams are pretty good.

Roethlisberger just got hurt. Who knows how missing the game and his injury will affect him. This was his year to win it, but injuries happen and the belt has to stay in play. This is still a possibility. He's basically the United States Champion and they are waiting to see what happens.

Wilson has been very, very average, even though his team is still winning. Fun to watch, but will always be a cruiser weight who needs help from his manager to compete with the big boys.

Prescott is going to lose his job because Jerah is the President Skroob of NFL owners/GMs.

Aaron Rodgers is 600!! yards behind Brees at this point in the season, with fewer TD's, a worse completion %, and only 1 fewer INT's.

Matthew Stafford? Let's get him out of the way quickly. First off, his team's record blows, just like the Saints. Second, they don't look to improve much as the year continues. Third, he has two guys tied or ahead of him, one of whom deserves the record for career accomplishments. Stafford needs a miracle. He's like the other, other guy in a stable of 3. You know, the one who's mike work is really bad.

Matt stinkin' Ryan is the other major player in the *current* 2016 NFL MVP conversation. He has one fewer INT than Brees, but has fewer yards/game, fewer TD's, and a worse completion %. His QB rating is better, I guess because of the 1 fewer INT and a higher yd/att. Anyway, his team is currently finding a way to do what they do best as well. Mess the bed after a nice start. Heck, they usually wait until mid point in the season to do so, but this year they have been kind enough to give us all an early gift! Does he get the push?

So, what does the NFL do? They have to do something. They can't give it to a QB on a .500 team. They can't give it to a defensive player who doesn't even come close to JJ Watt's stats from a couple of years ago. They also can't give it to a QB with decent stats when Brees is going to break multiple QB records that same year. Something has to change.

What will they do? Believing what I believe the NFL to be, one of three situations is most likely to occur.

(In NO particular order)

#1 - The Saints get healthy and go on a nice late season run, finishing with a 10-6 record, winning the division against Ryan in Atlanta while Brees sets records and win the MVP. This late season push will be packaged as the "They got healthy and hot at the right time" story line, and the week 17 game will be the "MVP" game. The Saints fight valiantly in the playoffs, maybe even winning a game, before their inexperience finally does them in. This does, however, set them up for 2 great runs over the next 2 years to end Brees' career. Very similar to the Peyton/Elway story lines. Obviously, I would love to see this one get picked.

#2 - The Falcons play well coming down the stretch and Matt Ryan has worse stats than Brees, but a better record, and so wins the MVP. The "Almost good enough team finally puts it all together" story line will be used on this one. But, they get eviscerated in the playoffs, because, well, they are the Falcons (snicker!).

#3 - Von Miller will go on a stats/sacks run to get close to the record and he will win. The "Look how important he is to a team without a QB" story line will be used. Never mind that Siemian has played quite nicely this year. More on this in a second.......

Now, what is most important to watch over the course of the next 11 weeks isn't which one of these will get picked, even though we all know which one we would most like to see. What's most important to watch is HOW it happens.

For Brees/Ryan:
2 minute drill flags against opposing defenses (holding, PI, targeting, looking at someone funny, whatever the random flag choice of the day is)
Olineman being allowed to hold to protect said QB
Friendly clock operators
Accidentally fortuitous clock stoppages/runnings at appropriate times to shorten games with leads/extend games for comebacks
Did he get out of bounds or didn't he? Well, which team is he playing for?
At least 1 major "What exactly constitutes a catch?" favorable ruling at a critical time

For Miller:
All of the above to get Denver leads so Miller can just flat out rush the passer. No worrying about the run in the 4th quarter.

So, which is most likely? Well, Ryan already has wins over Miller and Brees, his team is leading their division, and he's in a major market. Also, they have been a average to above average team these past few years, so they appear "ready to make the jump." Ryan seems to be in good position to get put over. But let's be honest, doesn't he have a sorta "Dolph Ziggler" vibe? I mean, sure, he's a try hard 'face, but can he really carry the organization?

Miller plays on the team with the best record, and seems less likely to wet the bed down the stretch than Ryan, so probably the safest basket to put their eggs. But there is a bit of Denver & Elway-fatigue going on, IMHO. I'm sorry, but with the funny commercials and the glasses, he screams "New Day" to me. Very good at what he does, but how can you have such a likable, jovial personality who's job it is to rip guy's heads off?

Brees has the least likely chance, I believe. They know he will put up the stats, so barring injury there's no worry there. But the market is smaller than Denver or Atlanta, and Payton is still the coach (there has to be some reciprocity to fix BountyGate, was the $11M donation to the HOF field enough?). There is also that defense to worry about. I would ask how much the powers could help a defense, but we've all seen how Seattle gets to play, soooooooooo.............. Brees is CM Punk in all of this. Absolutely amazing at what he does and his blackballing isn't really his fault. Like it or not, between the bags and the bounties, the Saints are heels. Not huge heels, but they are heels. It is what it is.

I think Miller wins the fatal three way. I mean, he should as he's a tag team (three of them really, so I guess actually a stable) and the other two guys are strictly solo acts. This would set up the MVP Miller against the "Should have been MVP, if not for the suspension" Brady. A 3 on 1 handicap match of New Day vs. Hulk Hogan! The AFCCG will come down to a drive late in the 4th quarter with Brady leading the Pats down the field against Miller and the Broncos D. Somehow, a chair will get thrown into the ring, a ref will get knocked down, and there will be some left saying "We were so close!"

It's like Vegas, either way, the NFL wins.
 

B-Train

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I really like your narrative about the Saints second half of the season. Even if they haven't necesarrily done anything yet to warrant such optimism I do believe that the talent and potential are there. Nothing would make me happier than witnessing a scenario such as that where the Saints finish 10-6, beating the Falcons for an MVP performance and NFC South lead in week 17.
 
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duckjr78

duckjr78

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My bet is Ezekiel Elliot, if the Cowboys continue to win and he keeps up to his current pace, they'll give him the MVP.
Oooh, good call, I totally forgot about 'Zeke.

His yardage pace is a little behind what it would most likely take, and his TD's are definitely behind. A few PI's in the end zone will get him a few 1st and goal from the 1 yd line, to help that out though. But, 3 of the 7 RB's to get over 2K didn't even win the MVP, so there is a precedent for a RB to have a huge year and still finish 2nd if a QB goes bananas.

Earl Campbell and Jim Brown won the award as rookies. Both RB's, hmmm. Brown for a marquee franchise, Campbell for a small market.

'Zeke already has a cool name, plays for the Dallas "Ric Flair's," and went to OSU.

Is he the Seth Rollins in all of this?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! They better decide if they want to push him, Dak, or even, would it be possible, Romo, lol! The whole stable can't win the MVP!

WILL 'ZEKE CASH IN HIS MONEY IN THE BANK CONTRACT, ZOMG???????

Stay tuned America.

And buy our merchandise. Always keep buying our merchandise................
 

LiterOCola

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MVP typically goes to either the best or most visible player selected from one of the top teams.

Brees could throw for 7000 yards and it won't matter because the Saints aren't going to have the win/loss record to put him in contention.

At this point, it's looking like a player from Dallas or New England. I'd put my early money on someone from Dallas, as Brady should take a hit based purely on the fact that they were 3-1 without him.
 

Live4theSaints

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If Arizona makes a run, I'd throw David Johnson into the mix. Dude is having a great all around season running and catching, a true workhorse for the Cards.
 
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duckjr78

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If Arizona makes a run, I'd throw David Johnson into the mix. Dude is having a great all around season running and catching, a true workhorse for the Cards.
There's a chance, I'll grant you that.

But, it's Arizona, he's a RB, and he's got a really, REALLY boring name.

He's a mid card guy right now.

Unless he goes with the Distinguished Gentleman "The Name You Know" campaign!!!!
 

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There's a chance, I'll grant you that.

But, it's Arizona, he's a RB, and he's got a really, REALLY boring name.

He's a mid card guy right now.

Unless he goes with the Distinguished Gentleman "The Name You Know" campaign!!!!
On pace for over 1500 yards rushing, 18tds, over 60 catches, and over 700 receiving. I don't care if his name is John Smith, that would have to stand out as more than a mid card guy.
 

2fya

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No one really stands out besides brees, matt ryan, julio jones, and zeek elliot.

edit: ^^^^^ i agree, i forgot about david johnson.
 

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Sticking with your wrestling theme, Brees is Cesaro. One of the best in the world and always puts on a technically proficient show. They are both very underrated and there's some hairline similarities as well. But the bookers are never going to give him the big belt because he's not a flashy new name and they just don't believe in him anymore.
 
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duckjr78

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On pace for over 1500 yards rushing, 18tds, over 60 catches, and over 700 receiving. I don't care if his name is John Smith, that would have to stand out as more than a mid card guy.
His yardage stats put him in that air. Faulk had approx 2,300 combined yards in each of his MVP seasons.

But he had 80+ receptions and 21 & 26 TD's those two years, playing in only 14 games each time.

Based on that comparison, while having the start of a very promising year, I'd say Johnson, like 'Zeke, has to stay healthy the entire year and even then still needs a tiny bit of a push.

It's just mathematically easier for a QB to stay healthy for 16 straight games than a starting RB, and both DJ and 'Zeke will have to defeat those odds because their stats aren't "that" over the top. They are both very, very good though.
 
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duckjr78

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Sticking with your wrestling theme, Brees is Cesaro. One of the best in the world and always puts on a technically proficient show. They are both very underrated and there's some hairline similarities as well. But the bookers are never going to give him the big belt because he's not a flashy new name and they just don't believe in him anymore.
And the perfectly thrown seam route is the European Uppercut?

Love it!
 

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