Analysis The QB Market (3 Viewers)

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I want to layout the QB market to get an idea of what things will look like. One question of the more realistic questions for us is "will there be a market for Jameis or not". There are many others also.

I did my best to base this on the most recent news I know (Deshaun wants out, Rivers is retiring, etc..)

I'm going to layout the QB needy teams and top options at QB. First, let me know if I'm off on some of this. I had to stop listing QBs at some point, did I include enough relevant ones? Also maybe I missed a team.

For our primary question though, where would you rank Jameis on this list? If he's within the QB needy teams range then we can assume he has a market.

*Note some guys like Watson may or may not move. If they do or don't it won't affect the overall supply and demand of the market.
**These are very rough rankings. Take them more as just counting.

Must add a QB (10)
1. Jaguars - Mainly because of #1 draft pick. Minshew may or may not be available? I'll add him to available.
2. Texans - Watson wants out
3. Colts
4. Cowboys
5. Patriots
6. Lions - Stafford and Lions want a split
7. Bears - I don't think Foles gets moved or is considered the starter.
8. Washington - I doubt they only roll with Alex Smith as the starter for the season.
9. 49ers - I'm going to assume they move on from Garapollo. He'll get added to available.
10. Jets - They are very likely to take a QB with that high pick. I'll assume so and add Darnold to the market.
11. Eagles - They could potentially add Wentz to the market. I think it would be a wash to put them in the above list. Reports are they will bring in competition for Hurts. It's hard to say how serious they attack the market but they will be looking to add a QB.
12. Panthers - Reports are they are moving on from Bridgewater. Adding him to available.

Might need a QB (5)
1. Broncos - Do they belong in the above list? I'm not sure. I don't think Lock would be competitive on the market.
2. Saints - Probably could be on the above list but I'll leave them here for our purposes. Their cap makes them uncompetitive.
3. Dolphins - I think they roll with Tua for now, could be wrong.
4. Steelers - I hear rumblings but think this is unlikely.
5. Falcons - They could draft for future plans. I doubt they move Ryan though.

So that's 10 teams that are directly in the QB market. A few others may absorb QBs from the market. Now, who is available worth mentioning...

Available QBs (13)
1. Deshaun Watson
2. Matt Stafford
3. Dak Prescott
4. Teddy Bridgewater
5. Jacoby Brissett
6. Andy Dalton
7. Jameis Winston
8. Cam Newton
9. Ryan Fitzpatrick
10. Gardner Minshew
11. Jimmy Garapollo
12. Sam Darnold
13. Tyrod Taylor
14. Mitch Trubisky

Now the draftable QBs. First, these guys need to be a year 1 starter, if not that team will look to bring in a FA bridge QB also. I'm only going to list 3 but it could only be 2. Also, you have to consider a team like the Falcons drafting a QB and absorbing options from the market.

Starting QBs in Draft (3)
1. Trevor Lawerence
2. Justin Field
3. Zack Wilson


In conclusion, I have 10 teams that will need to add a starting QB. I have Jameis roughly as the #6 QB on the market and 3 starting caliber rookies. I'm really not sure if thats a good ranking or not but I going to assume Jameis will have a market based on this. This also means we could be looking at Minshew to Trubisky type talent as a FA QB unless we want to compete with a team in free agency (which I think we have little hope of doing).

What do you think? Do you think Jameis is way too high on my list and won't have a market? I'd also be interested to see if anyone would attempt to pair the teams and QBs.
 
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new city champ

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One huge wildcard: a lot of chatter today about Aaron Rodgers future in Green Bay...I know.
 

Saint Spud

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Gotta add Lance to the draft QBs. Maybe even Jones.

And if you’re going to add the Falcons to the might need a QB, gotta add Ryan to the potentially available QBs. Same with the Dolphins and Tua. If they look elsewhere, then he will go somewhere, too. And Lock would probably be more attractive than a few of the QBs on your list.

So you’ve got the right idea. But the numbers could look a bit different.
 
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One huge wildcard: a lot of chatter today about Aaron Rodgers future in Green Bay...I know.
Yeah I hear you. My main thought with rumors like that is it doesn't really change the market too much. Unless they roll with Love you could be adding a QB to the market and a team that needs a QB.
 
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Gotta add Lance to the draft QBs. Maybe even Jones.

And if you’re going to add the Falcons to the might need a QB, gotta add Ryan to the potentially available QBs. Same with the Dolphins and Tua. If they look elsewhere, then he will go somewhere, too. And Lock would probably be more attractive than a few of the QBs on your list.

So you’ve got the right idea. But the numbers could look a bit different.
I didn't count the "might needs" as actually part of the market. Just notable. That's why I left Ryan there. I'm mainly looking at 10 QBs who must start for new teams.

I don't see Lance as a year 1 starter, but I could be wrong. I see him as someone that you want to put a FA in front of for a year. So a team might need him and another QB from the market. I could also see someone like the Falcons draft him and have Ryan in front short term. The same general idea with Jones. So they don't affect the market much.
 

harschman

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I want to layout the QB market to get an idea of what things will look like. One question of the more realistic questions for us is "will there be a market for Jameis or not". There are many others also.

I did my best to base this on the most recent news I know (Deshaun wants out, Rivers is retiring, etc..)

I'm going to layout the QB needy teams and top options at QB. First, let me know if I'm off on some of this. I had to stop listing QBs at some point, did I include enough relevant ones? Also maybe I missed a team.

For our primary question though, where would you rank Jameis on this list? If he's within the QB needy teams range then we can assume he has a market.

*Note some guys like Watson may not move. If they don't it won't affect the overall numbers of teams vs. available QBs.
**These are very rough rankings. Take them more as just counting.

Must add a QB (10)
1. Jaguars - Mainly because of #1 draft pick. Minshew may or may not be available? I'll add him to available.
2. Texans - Watson wants out
3. Colts
4. Cowboys
5. Patriots
6. Lions - Stafford and Lions want a split
7. Bears - I don't think Foles gets moved or is considered the starter.
8. Washington - I doubt they only roll with Alex Smith as the starter for the season.
9. 49ers - I'm going to assume they move on from Garapollo. He'll get added to available.
10. Jets - They are very likely to take a QB with that high pick. I'll assume so and add Darnold to the market.

Might need a QB (6)
1. Broncos - Do they belong in the above list? I'm not sure. I don't think Lock would be competitive on the market.
2. Saints - Probably could be on the above list but I'll leave them here for our purposes. Their cap makes them uncompetitive.
3. Eagles - They could potentially add Wentz to the market. I think it would be a wash to put them in the above list.
4. Dolphins - I think they roll with Tua for now, could be wrong.
5. Steelers - I hear rumblings but think this is unlikely
6. Falcons - They could draft for future plans. I doubt they move Ryan though.

So that's 10 teams that are directly in the QB market. A few others may absorb QBs from the market. Now, who is available worth mentioning...

Available QBs (12)
1. Deshaun Watson
2. Matt Stafford
3. Dak Prescott
4. Jacoby Brissett
5. Andy Dalton
6. Jameis Winston
7. Cam Newton
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick - Will he retire?
9. Gardner Minshew
10. Jimmy Garapollo
11. Sam Darnold
12. Mitch Trubisky

Now the draftable QBs. First, these guys need to be a year 1 starter, if not that team will look to bring in a FA bridge QB also. I'm only going to list 3 but it could only be 2. Also, you have to consider a team like the Falcons drafting a QB and absorbing options from the market.

Starting QBs in Draft (3)
1. Trevor Lawerence
2. Justin Field
3. Zack Wilson


In conclusion, I have 10 teams that will need to add a starting QB. I have Jameis roughly as the #6 QB on the FA market and 3 starting caliber rookies. I'm really not sure if thats a good ranking or not but I going to assume Jameis will have a market based on this. This also means we could be looking at Minshew to Trubisky type talent as a FA QB unless we want to compete with a team in free agency (which I think we have little hope of doing).

What do you think? Do you think Jameis is way too high on my list and won't have a market? I'd also be interested to see if anyone would attempt to pair the teams and QBs.
Need to remove the part about the cap making us noncompetitive for a QB. There are ways to get out of salary cap hell. Also, if we trade for one and the losing team keeps the 2021 cap hit that would make absorbing Brees' 2021 cap hit much easier.
 
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Cam Newton ranked higher than Darnold and Trubisky? Not so sure about that.
Yeah I don't know. He might just retire honestly. I didn't want to spend too much time figuring out rankings. I could see him getting signed by a team that drafts a QB though. Just as a 1 year bridge or something.
 
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Need to remove the part about the cap making us noncompetitive for a QB. There are ways to get out of salary cap hell. Also, if we trade for one and the losing team keeps the 2021 cap hit that would make absorbing Brees' 2021 cap hit much easier.
It depends really. If it's someone we are okay signing long term, maybe we could make it work by pushing cap back. If we are talking 1 or 2 years I don't see us being competitive with starting QB salary. If we are talking about having to make a trade I see it being harder to compete. Our draft stock is pretty low. The only caveat is if our team is willing to gut talent to add a QB.
 
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Saint Spud

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I didn't count the "might needs" as actually part of the market. Just notable. That's why I left Ryan there. I'm mainly looking at 10 QBs who must start for new teams.

I don't see Lance as a year 1 starter, but I could be wrong. I see him as someone that you want to put a FA in front of for a year. So a team might need him and another QB from the market. I could also see someone like the Falcons draft him and have Ryan in front short term. The same general idea with Jones. So they don't affect the market much.
Ahhh okay I see what you mean on the numbers.

With Lance, it’s gonna be interesting. He’s projected to go top 8. Will a team really sit a top 10 QB now? But yeah, I see what you’re saying.
 

harschman

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It depends really. If it's someone we are okay signing long term, maybe we could make it work by pushing cap back. If we are talking 1 or 2 years I don't see us being competitive with starting QB salary. If we are talking about having to make a trade I see it being harder to compete. Our draft stock is pretty low. The only caveat is if our team is willing to gut talent to add a QB.
So if Rodgers forces his way out of GB and they are on tap for the $31M hit in 2021, what would it really take to get him? They already have their QB of the future with Love. Our 2021 1st and a package of picks would get that done.

He's not happy with GB and hasn't been for awhile. We're seeing a trend of unhappy players forcing their way out of teams. I know this isn't Madden which is what everyone's go to canned statement for big trades, but I'd put it out there that anything is possible. Especially with a player who is due $31M and may not want to play for that organization anymore.
 
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So if Rodgers forces his way out of GB and they are on tap for the $31M hit in 2021, what would it really take to get him? They already have their QB of the future with Love. Our 2021 1st and a package of picks would get that done.

He's not happy with GB and hasn't been for awhile. We're seeing a trend of unhappy players forcing their way out of teams. I know this isn't Madden which is what everyone's go to canned statement for big trades, but I'd put it out there that anything is possible. Especially with a player who is due $31M and may not want to play for that organization anymore.
If they are willing to gut talent they could. Even less so with a guy like Stafford but it will take sacrifices and trade stock. Of all the teams I'd put them at the bottom of the list of those resources. I'm not saying they won't. You could put them as the 11th team that must add a QB. The main exercise is just to see where the market will start getting blurry. So if we focus on keeping talent and managing the cap this year what would the QB market look like to us.
 

harschman

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If they are willing to gut talent they could. Even less so with a guy like Stafford but it will take sacrifices and trade stock. Of all the teams I'd put them at the bottom of the list of those resources. I'm not saying they won't. You could put them as the 11th team that must add a QB. The main exercise is just to see where the market will start getting blurry. So if we focus on keeping talent and managing the cap this year what would the QB market look like to us.
Best scenario, keep Jameis if CSP has faith in him being the guy. He may be willing to sign a deal that has less $ in the first year to accommodate Brees' cap hit.
 
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Best scenario, keep Jameis if CSP has faith in him being the guy. He may be willing to sign a deal that has less $ in the first year to accommodate Brees' cap hit.
He was the main reason that spurred the post. I'm guessing based on the market we will be competing with other teams for him. That could cause issues getting him to come back. If we are his first choice maybe he'll give us a deal.
 

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