Analysis The QB Market (2 Viewers)

Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
2,890
Reaction score
5,543
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
Sticky Post
I want to layout the QB market to get an idea of what things will look like. One question of the more realistic questions for us is "will there be a market for Jameis or not". There are many others also.

I did my best to base this on the most recent news I know (Deshaun wants out, Rivers is retiring, etc..)

I'm going to layout the QB needy teams and top options at QB. First, let me know if I'm off on some of this. I had to stop listing QBs at some point, did I include enough relevant ones? Also maybe I missed a team.

For our primary question though, where would you rank Jameis on this list? If he's within the QB needy teams range then we can assume he has a market.

*Note some guys like Watson may or may not move. If they do or don't it won't affect the overall supply and demand of the market.
**These are very rough rankings. Take them more as just counting.

Must add a QB (10)
1. Jaguars - Mainly because of #1 draft pick. Minshew may or may not be available? I'll add him to available.
2. Texans - Watson wants out
3. Colts
4. Cowboys
5. Patriots
6. Lions - Stafford and Lions want a split
7. Bears - I don't think Foles gets moved or is considered the starter.
8. Washington - I doubt they only roll with Alex Smith as the starter for the season.
9. 49ers - I'm going to assume they move on from Garapollo. He'll get added to available.
10. Jets - They are very likely to take a QB with that high pick. I'll assume so and add Darnold to the market.
11. Eagles - They could potentially add Wentz to the market. I think it would be a wash to put them in the above list. Reports are they will bring in competition for Hurts. It's hard to say how serious they attack the market but they will be looking to add a QB.
12. Panthers - Reports are they are moving on from Bridgewater. Adding him to available.

Might need a QB (5)
1. Broncos - Do they belong in the above list? I'm not sure. I don't think Lock would be competitive on the market.
2. Saints - Probably could be on the above list but I'll leave them here for our purposes. Their cap makes them uncompetitive.
3. Dolphins - I think they roll with Tua for now, could be wrong.
4. Steelers - I hear rumblings but think this is unlikely.
5. Falcons - They could draft for future plans. I doubt they move Ryan though.

So that's 10 teams that are directly in the QB market. A few others may absorb QBs from the market. Now, who is available worth mentioning...

Available QBs (13)
1. Deshaun Watson
2. Matt Stafford
3. Dak Prescott
4. Teddy Bridgewater
5. Jacoby Brissett
6. Andy Dalton
7. Jameis Winston
8. Cam Newton
9. Ryan Fitzpatrick
10. Gardner Minshew
11. Jimmy Garapollo
12. Sam Darnold
13. Tyrod Taylor
14. Mitch Trubisky

Now the draftable QBs. First, these guys need to be a year 1 starter, if not that team will look to bring in a FA bridge QB also. I'm only going to list 3 but it could only be 2. Also, you have to consider a team like the Falcons drafting a QB and absorbing options from the market.

Starting QBs in Draft (3)
1. Trevor Lawerence
2. Justin Field
3. Zack Wilson


In conclusion, I have 10 teams that will need to add a starting QB. I have Jameis roughly as the #6 QB on the market and 3 starting caliber rookies. I'm really not sure if thats a good ranking or not but I going to assume Jameis will have a market based on this. This also means we could be looking at Minshew to Trubisky type talent as a FA QB unless we want to compete with a team in free agency (which I think we have little hope of doing).

What do you think? Do you think Jameis is way too high on my list and won't have a market? I'd also be interested to see if anyone would attempt to pair the teams and QBs.
 
Last edited:

harschman

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Nov 26, 2006
Messages
7,071
Reaction score
6,507
Location
Florida Panhandle
Online
He was the main reason that spurred the post. I'm guessing based on the market we will be competing with other teams for him. That could cause issues getting him to come back. If we are his first choice maybe he'll give us a deal.
CSP with Jameis' arm talent on a team with one of the best offensive lines and a weapon like Kamara is scary. A strategic WR add here and there and this offense would be explosive.
 

Analyze This

increase after a decline
Joined
Nov 12, 2007
Messages
2,253
Reaction score
1,435
Location
Atlanta
Offline
I think Winston is ~#5 on your list of FAs/Trade targets. Add the top 2 in the draft and he falls to ~7.
 

Merl

Subscribing Member
VIP Subscribing Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Messages
11,984
Reaction score
7,174
Location
Monroe
Offline
So if Rodgers forces his way out of GB and they are on tap for the $31M hit in 2021, what would it really take to get him? They already have their QB of the future with Love. Our 2021 1st and a package of picks would get that done.

He's not happy with GB and hasn't been for awhile. We're seeing a trend of unhappy players forcing their way out of teams. I know this isn't Madden which is what everyone's go to canned statement for big trades, but I'd put it out there that anything is possible. Especially with a player who is due $31M and may not want to play for that organization anymore.
GB would be on tap for $31M because they would have to accelerate the signing bonus charges. However the acquiring team will have to take the charge for Salary, roster and workout bonus for each of the remaining 3 years. For this coming season that is $22M and $25.5 for 2022 and 2023.
 

NatureBoy

16x World Champion
Joined
Sep 3, 2013
Messages
2,949
Reaction score
5,431
Location
Space Mountain
Offline
Besides replacing Pederson, the Eagles today fired their QB coach and passing coordinator Press Taylor . That appears to suggest 1 of 2 things.

1. The franchise is desperately trying to repair the relationship between Wentz and the organization. They believe he’s worth the investment of further time and investment.

2. The franchise puts the blame for Wentz’ lack of development and unfixable regression directly at the feet of Pederson and the QB coach.

I tend to think it’s #1. I don’t think the production that Wentz flashed was a fluke. I’d try repair the relationship too and surround Wentz with positive influences who could help restore his confidence and develop him further.
 
Last edited:

OneBigEasy!!

ALL-MADDEN TEAM
VIP Contributor
Joined
Jan 12, 2010
Messages
2,628
Reaction score
2,324
Online
People here assume that Winston will be automatically be here regardless of other qbs the Saints might acquire through the draft or free agency. Winston has talent and he could possibly get scooped up by another team:
 
OP
Stalwart385
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
2,890
Reaction score
5,543
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
Besides replacing Pederson, the Eagles today fired their QB coach and passing coordinator Press Taylor . That appears to suggest 1 of 2 things.

1. The franchise is desperately trying to repair the relationship between Wentz and the organization. They believe he’s worth the investment of further time and investment.

2. The franchise puts the blame for Wentz’ lack of development and unfixable regression directly at the feet of Pederson and the WB coach.

I tend to think it’s #1. I don’t think the production that Wentz flashed was a fluke. I’d try repair the relationship too and surround Wentz with positive influences who could help restore his confidence and develop him further.
I agree. I think Wentz was a solid QB before this disaster of a year. With their o-line and WR also falling apart there are excuses to reasonably expect better. Throw in the difficulty of moving Wentz at this point, it's the best move imo.
 
OP
Stalwart385
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
2,890
Reaction score
5,543
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
People here assume that Winston will be automatically be here regardless of other qbs the Saints might acquire through the draft or free agency. Winston has talent and he could possibly get scooped up by another team:
That was my feeling before I started this breakdown. I feel like that more now. Now I'm just wondering what of the rest we could end up with if Winston doesn't take a cut-rate deal to come back. I'm sure they will add a FA of some sorts, but Taysom is looking to have a clear advantage unless the Saints shake up the roster to fit a QB or catch some kind of break in FAs.
 

B4YOU

All-Pro
Joined
Mar 17, 2017
Messages
3,601
Reaction score
4,768
Offline
@Stalwart385

The Saints are in the “must add” category. Brissett is below Winston. Minschew isn’t going anywhere as he is a cheap backup under contract for 2 more years. I would put the Jets in “might need”. Darnold is a mystery that won’t be answered until after the draft. Flipping the #2 pick to Det might make the most sense for both teams. Not signing Winston means the Saints are looking at Brissett or Trubisky to compete with Hill. 🤮
 
OP
Stalwart385
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
2,890
Reaction score
5,543
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
@Stalwart385

The Saints are in the “must add” category. Brissett is below Winston. Minschew isn’t going anywhere as he is a cheap backup under contract for 2 more years. I would put the Jets in “might need”. Darnold is a mystery that won’t be answered until after the draft. Flipping the #2 pick to Det might make the most sense for both teams. Not signing Winston means the Saints are looking at Brissett or Trubisky to compete with Hill. 🤮
I don't disagree with most of that.

I just left Saints out because the idea is that if you want a QB they are the 11th team. No issue putting them there.

My rankings aren't great just ballpark. That second tier of FA gets pretty muddled.

I certainly see the value of keeping Minshew. I actually like that idea as well. I think he would be purely a backup, not a bridge though. If someone offers some value for him they might jump on it.

I think the general expectation is they draft a QB at #2. I don't keep up with them enough to really say. I do think they are in a tough spot to attract a market QB. As far as the team, not compensation wise. Keeping Darnold and/or drafting might be their best bet without severally outbidding another team. Houston is in a similar boat, maybe even worse depending on how their trade works out.

I haven't kept up with Brissett much. I seem to have a thought that he's respectable but the team obviously took a step up with Rivers. More a backup level than anything but he doesn't kill his teams with mistakes. Just off the cuff.
 
OP
Stalwart385
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
2,890
Reaction score
5,543
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
You can add Kyle Trask to the list of 1st round qbs
I tend to think he isn't a day 1 starter though, could be wrong. If a needy team drafts him then they also need to find a QB to put in front of him short term. Or he goes to a team that already has a short term option, like the Steelers or Falcons, something along those lines. So he wouldn't actually affect the market numbers.
 

Boiler Jim

Saint Boilermaker
VIP Subscribing Member
Joined
Oct 2, 2006
Messages
1,301
Reaction score
1,056
Location
Midland Michigan
Offline
You can add Kyle Trask to the list of 1st round qbs
You may be right about Trask being a first round selection.

Just remember that very few first round QBs pan out, no matter how good they look in college. Very few make it to consistent starter for 2-3 years and even fewer get to a level that might be labeled as a franchise quarterback. In my opinion, barring serious injury, Mahomes, Watson and perhaps Allen will eventually be viewed as franchise QBs, so that's 3 in four years. However, the next guy on my list, who really is a franchise QB is Wilson (second round of the draft), from 9 years ago -- that's 3-4 guys over nine years. You are very unlikely to draft one in any year's draft.

Brees had the 6th best QBR this regular season among those who threw for more than 300 yards during the year . (I hate seeing all those running backs who threw a few complete passes now listed in the QBR list at the top.) It is VERY unlikely anyone we replace Drew with will achieve his on-field effectiveness.

We will probably see how the future is going to look starting next year, or the year after.
 

TenTwo

Are you touched in the head or something?
VIP Contributor
Joined
Oct 5, 2007
Messages
7,497
Reaction score
9,880
Location
Follow the yellow brick road
Offline
Am I the only one here who puts Dak Prescott at the top of this wish list? He's the best guy who would cost us zero draft capital. His contract would be higher but I'm sure they could backload it through signing bonuses to make it doable. He has all the traits I love to see in a QB. Just gotta hope Jerry Jones falls in love with a different guy.
 

Saint Spud

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Mar 6, 2002
Messages
9,648
Reaction score
20,567
Age
41
Online
Am I the only one here who puts Dak Prescott at the top of this wish list? He's the best guy who would cost us zero draft capital. His contract would be higher but I'm sure they could backload it through signing bonuses to make it doable. He has all the traits I love to see in a QB. Just gotta hope Jerry Jones falls in love with a different guy.
Ive thought about him. Stafford is from Texas and if Jerry decided he wants to go that direction, Prescott would jump to the top of the list after Watson.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)



New Orleans Saints Twitter Feed

Headlines

Top Bottom