Analysis The QB Market (1 Viewer)

Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
2,897
Reaction score
5,573
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
Sticky Post
I want to layout the QB market to get an idea of what things will look like. One question of the more realistic questions for us is "will there be a market for Jameis or not". There are many others also.

I did my best to base this on the most recent news I know (Deshaun wants out, Rivers is retiring, etc..)

I'm going to layout the QB needy teams and top options at QB. First, let me know if I'm off on some of this. I had to stop listing QBs at some point, did I include enough relevant ones? Also maybe I missed a team.

For our primary question though, where would you rank Jameis on this list? If he's within the QB needy teams range then we can assume he has a market.

*Note some guys like Watson may or may not move. If they do or don't it won't affect the overall supply and demand of the market.
**These are very rough rankings. Take them more as just counting.

Must add a QB (10)
1. Jaguars - Mainly because of #1 draft pick. Minshew may or may not be available? I'll add him to available.
2. Texans - Watson wants out
3. Colts
4. Cowboys
5. Patriots
6. Lions - Stafford and Lions want a split
7. Bears - I don't think Foles gets moved or is considered the starter.
8. Washington - I doubt they only roll with Alex Smith as the starter for the season.
9. 49ers - I'm going to assume they move on from Garapollo. He'll get added to available.
10. Jets - They are very likely to take a QB with that high pick. I'll assume so and add Darnold to the market.
11. Eagles - They could potentially add Wentz to the market. I think it would be a wash to put them in the above list. Reports are they will bring in competition for Hurts. It's hard to say how serious they attack the market but they will be looking to add a QB.
12. Panthers - Reports are they are moving on from Bridgewater. Adding him to available.

Might need a QB (5)
1. Broncos - Do they belong in the above list? I'm not sure. I don't think Lock would be competitive on the market.
2. Saints - Probably could be on the above list but I'll leave them here for our purposes. Their cap makes them uncompetitive.
3. Dolphins - I think they roll with Tua for now, could be wrong.
4. Steelers - I hear rumblings but think this is unlikely.
5. Falcons - They could draft for future plans. I doubt they move Ryan though.

So that's 10 teams that are directly in the QB market. A few others may absorb QBs from the market. Now, who is available worth mentioning...

Available QBs (13)
1. Deshaun Watson
2. Matt Stafford
3. Dak Prescott
4. Teddy Bridgewater
5. Jacoby Brissett
6. Andy Dalton
7. Jameis Winston
8. Cam Newton
9. Ryan Fitzpatrick
10. Gardner Minshew
11. Jimmy Garapollo
12. Sam Darnold
13. Tyrod Taylor
14. Mitch Trubisky

Now the draftable QBs. First, these guys need to be a year 1 starter, if not that team will look to bring in a FA bridge QB also. I'm only going to list 3 but it could only be 2. Also, you have to consider a team like the Falcons drafting a QB and absorbing options from the market.

Starting QBs in Draft (3)
1. Trevor Lawerence
2. Justin Field
3. Zack Wilson


In conclusion, I have 10 teams that will need to add a starting QB. I have Jameis roughly as the #6 QB on the market and 3 starting caliber rookies. I'm really not sure if thats a good ranking or not but I going to assume Jameis will have a market based on this. This also means we could be looking at Minshew to Trubisky type talent as a FA QB unless we want to compete with a team in free agency (which I think we have little hope of doing).

What do you think? Do you think Jameis is way too high on my list and won't have a market? I'd also be interested to see if anyone would attempt to pair the teams and QBs.
 
Last edited:

B4YOU

All-Pro
Joined
Mar 17, 2017
Messages
3,602
Reaction score
4,773
Offline
Am I the only one here who puts Dak Prescott at the top of this wish list? He's the best guy who would cost us zero draft capital. His contract would be higher but I'm sure they could backload it through signing bonuses to make it doable. He has all the traits I love to see in a QB. Just gotta hope Jerry Jones falls in love with a different guy.
Expect him to be tagged. I don’t think he hits on the market unless someone offers a trade.
 

Marty_Graw

Don't Rain on My Parade
Joined
Mar 22, 2006
Messages
4,105
Reaction score
5,857
Location
Stuck in 2020
Offline
Based on what I’ve read on SSF, we will:
Manage to acquire Stafford, Watson, Goff and Darnold.
Re-sign Winston for one more season
Extend Brees for one last run
Draft Mac Jones
Somehow, trade for Burrow
Name Taysom the starting QB
We should be set, right?
 

TenTwo

Are you touched in the head or something?
VIP Contributor
Joined
Oct 5, 2007
Messages
7,503
Reaction score
9,886
Location
Follow the yellow brick road
Offline
Expect him to be tagged. I don’t think he hits on the market unless someone offers a trade.
I would expect that except they may decide to move on without him. Mike Mccarthy didn't draft him. They may think he's overvalued and they can't afford him. Tagging him exacerbates that issue.
 

Noble Saint

Former NFL Fanatic
VIP Contributor
Joined
May 20, 2018
Messages
3,047
Reaction score
5,925
Location
MS
Offline
I don’t think the Jets draft a QB at 2. They probably are going to test the waters on trading for Watson since he has said they are one of his 2 desirable landing spots, but other than that I think they build around Darnold.
 

B4YOU

All-Pro
Joined
Mar 17, 2017
Messages
3,602
Reaction score
4,773
Offline
I don’t think the Jets draft a QB at 2. They probably are going to test the waters on trading for Watson since he has said they are one of his 2 desirable landing spots, but other than that I think they build around Darnold.
Agree. I could see them even trading down with Det and stockpiling picks if Watson isn’t an option.
 

Saint Spud

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Mar 6, 2002
Messages
9,688
Reaction score
20,713
Age
41
Offline
Sounds like we aren’t interested anyway (Holder says we like Jameis better). But seems like this will end soon.

 

Noble Saint

Former NFL Fanatic
VIP Contributor
Joined
May 20, 2018
Messages
3,047
Reaction score
5,925
Location
MS
Offline
Sounds like we aren’t interested anyway (Holder says we like Jameis better). But seems like this will end soon.

I think we roll with Jameis. I think we can get great value for what we can sign him for.
 

Numbskull

"Expert" Detroit Lions GM
VIP Contributor
Joined
Aug 8, 2000
Messages
5,045
Reaction score
426
Age
35
Location
Lafayette
Offline
I think it would be interesting to make a play at Tua. if the Dolphins go down the Deshaun Watson path, word on the street is that the Texans are not super enamored with Tua as a franchise guy and might value packages with more draft picks more favorably. I think the Saints coming in as a 3rd team to provide extra draft pick compensation for Tua wouldn't be a bad idea, tho I'm not sure we have the draft capital to swing it. JUST DREAMING BIG OVER HERE!
 
OP
Stalwart385
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
2,897
Reaction score
5,573
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
Ive thought about him. Stafford is from Texas and if Jerry decided he wants to go that direction, Prescott would jump to the top of the list after Watson.
I don't hate it. Trading for a QB on his rookie contract fits our cap situation for sure. As you said assuming we can swing it. I wonder what kinda value you put on a second year QB that a team isn't excited about that went for the 5th overall. Seems like the 28th pick isn't enough alone, dunno.

...

I adjusted the market for the Stafford move.
 

Taker597

Hall-of-Famer
VIP Contributor
Joined
Dec 13, 2009
Messages
10,675
Reaction score
19,295
Age
30
Location
Victoria, TX
Offline
Tua jump from Bama to NFL was like going Lego Star Wars to Dark Souls 2.

It's why I have little interest in Mac Jones unless the plan to let him sit on the pine and throwaway a season with Hill.
 
OP
Stalwart385
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
2,897
Reaction score
5,573
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
Tua jump from Bama to NFL was like going Lego Star Wars to Dark Souls 2.

It's why I have little interest in Mac Jones unless the plan to let him sit on the pine and throwaway a season with Hill.
I didn't watch Tua last year. Just heard rumblings. I do think he's a similar QB to Mac Jones, but he came much more highly regarded (even with the injury). Mainly I just like the idea of getting a top draft pick on his rookie contract.
 

Taker597

Hall-of-Famer
VIP Contributor
Joined
Dec 13, 2009
Messages
10,675
Reaction score
19,295
Age
30
Location
Victoria, TX
Offline
I didn't watch Tua last year. Just heard rumblings. I do think he's a similar QB to Mac Jones, but he came much more highly regarded (even with the injury). Mainly I just like the idea of getting a top draft pick on his rookie contract.
I like rookie QB before we kind of made it unattainable to draft one that would start. Loomis and Payton are pretty clear to always be in contend mode.

So, I don't think they'll take a year off to sit a QB. The only other option at our pick would be... *Cringe* Trask. 'll be honest... I'd flip a coin at both Trask or Jones. I think with PAyton... He'd probably develop them to be winners. With the situation that the defense is in personnel and coaching wise, I would pass on drafting a QB. I think they'll probably not be good enough due to lack of athleticism and just doesn't have next level talent. Jones gets put on a pedestal for his accuracy and Elite back shoulder throw. Yet, the NFL is more about being able to make more than one kind of throw really well. It doesn't change the fact that in Jones's case would be the least pressured QB in the 1st round with the most wide open receivers looks that are much rarer in the NFL. Once Taysom stop getting wide open looks. He struggled while holding on the ball for up to 4 seconds.

WHen you struggle to make quick NFL reads... what happens next. The pressure comes and this brings to my next point.


Joe Burrow, LSU
(2019)
Mac Jones, Alabama
(2020)
94.9PFF grade95.5
94.1PFF passing grade94.5
10.8Yards per attempt11.2
140.9Passer rating when clean 142.4
141.1Passer rating under pressure122.7
24.3%Uncatchable pass % on throws 10-plus yards18.7%
37.9%Uncatchable pass % on tight-window throws34.7%


What's alarming for the QB that doesn't get pressured a whole lot. It's dipped a whole 20 points under pressure while facing nothing but nobody defenses this year. There is just so much evidence that's his pockets skill and awareness will not be ready for NFL pressure and sub-par line play on day one. Maybe year two.... He'll be ready. I just don't see Trask and Jones pocket mobility being good enough for the NFL. I didn't think Burrow's mobility was good enough either and he was way more mobile than both those guys. He went to Cinn with no o-line and that was a recipe for disaster. Got broken within 9 games.

Drafting QB is about patience and time invested... Payton being the way he is... He has to really fall in love with a QB to do it. When he ask Jones for a video private work out to see what kind of throws he can make. You can bubble it in as our 1st round pick.
 

B4YOU

All-Pro
Joined
Mar 17, 2017
Messages
3,602
Reaction score
4,773
Offline
Thanks @Stalwart385 for updating the thread. No surprise that Colts and Bears are considering Winston. The second tweet though about Cousins for Garapollo is insteresting.


 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)



New Orleans Saints Twitter Feed

Headlines

Top Bottom