The truth about the NFL Draft (1 Viewer)

bergeaux

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So while everyone is talking about what we should do I found this article VERY interesting. (OK, so it was more interesting because I agree with it) You will not be able to read the article unless you are an ESPN Insider/ESPN Magazine subscriber.

ESPN - ESPN The Magazine

The main points of the article were:

1) The high picks in the 1st round are exceedingly more expensive than the lower picks.

2) The top picks do not have a better statistical value than the bottom picks of each round. (In other words pick 1 does not have as likely of being good as you will have to pay him compared to the 32nd pick.)

3) The draft is a gamble on young kids that no team or GM can master. With quotes from NFL drafting guru Bill Polian (Indy GM) backing it up.

4) The teams that have had the most success from the draft have CONSISTENTLY traded back and grabbed more picks. (See Cowboys and Patriots)

5) The picks from the 1st round are almost as likely to be OUT OF FOOTBALL (8%) as they are to be a pro-bowl player (9%) in the first 5 seasons.

6) Making the wrong pick at the top can cost your franchise so much that it can set you back at least 5 years.

7) The teams that selected a DT in the first round from 1996 to 2006 on average allow 0.4 yards MORE the next 2 season than they did the season before the pick.


Most of the points come from a study performed jointly by Yale and the University of Chicago in 2006. They did a study on the picks from 1991 to 2002.

So, again, as I have said before, we should NOT trade up and give away more picks to get Ellis or Dorsey. And I think that if neither Dorsey or Ellis are there, we need to trade back if we can find a suitor. Rivers is good and I would love to have him, but I think that Mayo or Connor are going to be good as well and they are ALL a risk, why not pay less for our risk and pick up more picks or players along the way?
 
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workhorse

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Totally agree with the findings and your point, Bergeaux. I really hope we trade down once, maybe twice to get more picks.

Along with points #5 and #6, if we can't trade down from the 10th pick, we may go with normally the safest bet in the 1st round, that being offensive line.
 
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bergeaux

bergeaux

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That's a good point. It would certainly create an uproar with the fans, but they may take the safe pick. Albert or Clady would be safe and could be what they do. I would rather Rivers or a DB than O-line, but I would understand the pick...

I hope we can trade back if those two DTs are gone. I really really hope we can. There is so much talent at DT, LB and CB that a later 1st and our seconds would give us a lot to pick from.
 
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bergeaux

bergeaux

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You serious?

Yes, why not? If the DTs are gone... are you really thinking that the player we pick at 10 will be that much better than the player we would take at 17 or 19? Would Rivers be THAT much better than Mayo or Connor? Would McKelvin be THAT much better than Talib or Jenkins?

Not only would we be able to pick up either draft picks or players, we wouldn't have to pay that person as much. That's a cap issue that we don't really want to deal with if we can avoid it.
 

dat dam dog

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Yes, why not? If the DTs are gone... are you really thinking that the player we pick at 10 will be that much better than the player we would take at 17 or 19? Would Rivers be THAT much better than Mayo or Connor? Would McKelvin be THAT much better than Talib or Jenkins?

Not only would we be able to pick up either draft picks or players, we wouldn't have to pay that person as much. That's a cap issue that we don't really want to deal with if we can avoid it.


I can't answer for another poster, but I'll give you my thoughts:

"are you really thinking that the player we pick at 10 will be that much better than the player we would take at 17 or 19?" Yes, I think so. But that's for the coaches, not us.

"Would Rivers be THAT much better than Mayo or Connor?"

Yes, he likely would.

"Would McKelvin be THAT much better than Talib or Jenkins?"

I admit the CBs are a craps shoot.

I've kept out of these posts today, but I think we are closer to the top than our record shows.

We are better than we look, a contender, and need an elite guy more than this trade stuff for multiple players. Lets get a Blue Chip. If not Rivers, a highly rated non-QB will fall to 10.


ddd
 

wbbigtymer

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Yes, why not? If the DTs are gone... are you really thinking that the player we pick at 10 will be that much better than the player we would take at 17 or 19? Would Rivers be THAT much better than Mayo or Connor? Would McKelvin be THAT much better than Talib or Jenkins?

Not only would we be able to pick up either draft picks or players, we wouldn't have to pay that person as much. That's a cap issue that we don't really want to deal with if we can avoid it.

I need to apologize for my snippyness. I actually misread that to say "If either..." instead of neither. My mistake.

I actually agree with you, except that I don't really think we'll have a whole lot of teams looking to be our trade partners.
 

sykobob671

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Bergeaux...
nice post.:9::9:
I find the stat # 7 very interesting and would not have suspected it. Should we get an offer to trade down it would certainly make it more understandable if the FO did it. Peace.
 
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bergeaux

bergeaux

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We are better than we look, a contender, and need an elite guy more than this trade stuff for multiple players. Lets get a Blue Chip. If not Rivers, a highly rated non-QB will fall to 10.

Thanks for the response DDD and I understand what you are getting at. I think what jumped out of the article to me is that we need to forget about "how close we are" and go with what works. What works is trading back and getting MORE players. When you start thinking that "this one player" can make the difference, you fool yourself and make yourself basically hang all your hopes on single guy instead of giving several guys a chance to prove themselves.

It's just not smart in the long run.
 
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bergeaux

bergeaux

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I need to apologize for my snippyness. I actually misread that to say "If either..." instead of neither. My mistake.

I actually agree with you, except that I don't really think we'll have a whole lot of teams looking to be our trade partners.

No worries, but I agree with you. We may have a hard time finding a partner. It probably most depends on who slips and how bad a certain team wants him. It almost may be to our advantage if someone like McFadden were to somehow fall to us (not likely). If that happens we might get a lot of action for a trade.
 

whiteshadowen

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Come on guys. You can use numbers to support any position you choose if you are selective in your data.

There is always risk involved in any pick. My position on this theory is that these stats have much more to do with the staffs picking them than it has to do with the players. Later picks go to good teams with good staffs. Early picks (usually) go to bad teams with questionable staffs.
 

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I'd guess in the statistical analysis, Peyton Manning is cancelled out by Ryan Leaf.

But tell me that the Colts aren't glad they got Peyton. And how many teams today wouldn't consider a Rickey Williams trade for Peyton if they could go back in time?

I imagine they could probably apply all their findings to marriage, to. ;)
 
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bergeaux

bergeaux

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I'd guess in the statistical analysis, Peyton Manning is cancelled out by Ryan Leaf.

But tell me that the Colts aren't glad they got Peyton. And how many teams today wouldn't consider a Rickey Williams trade for Peyton if they could go back in time?

I imagine they could probably apply all their findings to marriage, to. ;)

The point is that AT THE TIME, many teams would have traded up for either Payton Manning OR Ryan Leaf and it was proven to be a 50/50 gamble.

In todays draft Dorsey and Ellis are considered to be the same thing at a different position. Will Dorsey be a star and Ellis a bust or Ellis a star and Dorsey a bust? We'll have to see, but that's the point.

The same is for Chris Long and Vernon Gholston. I have seen a lot of draft boards and experts that are saying that they are equal and I have seen Gholston put above Chris Long because they say Gholston is more athletic. Then I have seen Long in front because of the intangibles. Will we see one be a bang and one be a bust? The history says it's more than likely.
 

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