bergeaux
Building my own team!
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So while everyone is talking about what we should do I found this article VERY interesting. (OK, so it was more interesting because I agree with it) You will not be able to read the article unless you are an ESPN Insider/ESPN Magazine subscriber.
ESPN - ESPN The Magazine
The main points of the article were:
1) The high picks in the 1st round are exceedingly more expensive than the lower picks.
2) The top picks do not have a better statistical value than the bottom picks of each round. (In other words pick 1 does not have as likely of being good as you will have to pay him compared to the 32nd pick.)
3) The draft is a gamble on young kids that no team or GM can master. With quotes from NFL drafting guru Bill Polian (Indy GM) backing it up.
4) The teams that have had the most success from the draft have CONSISTENTLY traded back and grabbed more picks. (See Cowboys and Patriots)
5) The picks from the 1st round are almost as likely to be OUT OF FOOTBALL (8%) as they are to be a pro-bowl player (9%) in the first 5 seasons.
6) Making the wrong pick at the top can cost your franchise so much that it can set you back at least 5 years.
7) The teams that selected a DT in the first round from 1996 to 2006 on average allow 0.4 yards MORE the next 2 season than they did the season before the pick.
Most of the points come from a study performed jointly by Yale and the University of Chicago in 2006. They did a study on the picks from 1991 to 2002.
So, again, as I have said before, we should NOT trade up and give away more picks to get Ellis or Dorsey. And I think that if neither Dorsey or Ellis are there, we need to trade back if we can find a suitor. Rivers is good and I would love to have him, but I think that Mayo or Connor are going to be good as well and they are ALL a risk, why not pay less for our risk and pick up more picks or players along the way?
ESPN - ESPN The Magazine
The main points of the article were:
1) The high picks in the 1st round are exceedingly more expensive than the lower picks.
2) The top picks do not have a better statistical value than the bottom picks of each round. (In other words pick 1 does not have as likely of being good as you will have to pay him compared to the 32nd pick.)
3) The draft is a gamble on young kids that no team or GM can master. With quotes from NFL drafting guru Bill Polian (Indy GM) backing it up.
4) The teams that have had the most success from the draft have CONSISTENTLY traded back and grabbed more picks. (See Cowboys and Patriots)
5) The picks from the 1st round are almost as likely to be OUT OF FOOTBALL (8%) as they are to be a pro-bowl player (9%) in the first 5 seasons.
6) Making the wrong pick at the top can cost your franchise so much that it can set you back at least 5 years.
7) The teams that selected a DT in the first round from 1996 to 2006 on average allow 0.4 yards MORE the next 2 season than they did the season before the pick.
Most of the points come from a study performed jointly by Yale and the University of Chicago in 2006. They did a study on the picks from 1991 to 2002.
So, again, as I have said before, we should NOT trade up and give away more picks to get Ellis or Dorsey. And I think that if neither Dorsey or Ellis are there, we need to trade back if we can find a suitor. Rivers is good and I would love to have him, but I think that Mayo or Connor are going to be good as well and they are ALL a risk, why not pay less for our risk and pick up more picks or players along the way?
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