The widely assumed 4th round compensatory pick... (1 Viewer)

Ross

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I keep seeing talk of this 4th round pick that many people think we're gonna get as compensation.

It's included in almost every single member mock draft posted in here.

Continually mentioned in draft threads.

But the thing that's been puzzling me is just why exactly it is assumed we're getting anything...

So I did a little research.

Saints 2012 free agency

losses: Carl Nicks (5 yr $47.5 million), Robert Meachem (4 yr $26 million), Tracy Porter (1 yr $4 million), Jo-Lonn Dunbar (2 yr $3 million)

Gains: Ben Grubbs (5 yr $36 million), Curtis Lofton (5 yr $27.5 million), Brodrick Bunkley (5 yr $25 million), David Hawthorne (5 yr $19.5 million), Chris Chamberlain (3 yr $4 million)

Now as far as I can see we ain't due a single thing.

Now, the Ravens for instance are widely projected to be due a 4th round selection for the loss of Ben Grubbs because they did not replace him.

Ravens 2012 Free agency 2012

Losses: Ben Grubbs (5 yr $36 million), Jarret Johnson (4 yr $19 million), Corey Redding (3 yr $10.5 million), Tom Zbikowski (3 yr $5.5 million), Haruki Nakamura (3 yr $4.8 million)

Gains: Corey Graham (2 yr $3.7 million

Below is a look at the projected picks for all teams.

Team Round Player lost
Texans 3 Mario Williams
Chiefs 3 Brandon Carr
Titans 3 Cortland Finnegan
Lions 4 Eric Wright
Ravens 4 Ben Grubbs
Packers 4 Matt Flynn
Dolphins 4 Kendall Langford
49ers 4 Josh Morgan
Falcons 4 Curtis Lofton
Ravens 5 Jarret Johnson
Titans 5 Jason Jones
Texans 6 Jason Allen
Giants 6 Aaron Ross
Raiders 6 Samson Satele
Raiders 6 Michael Bush
Ravens 6 Cory Redding
Eagles 7 Steve Smith
Bengals 7 Jerome Simpson
Ravens 7 Tom Zbikowski
Steelers 7 William Gay
Seahawks 7 Charlie Whitehurst
Seahawks 7 Atari Bigby
Falcons 7 Eric Weems
Bengals 7 Mike McGlynn
49ers 7 Blake Costanzo
Lions 7 Drew Stanton
49ers 7 Madieu Williams
Falcons 7 James Sanders
Titans 7 William Hayes
Falcons 7 Kelvin Hayden
Jaguars 7 Additional pick
Chiefs 7 Additional pick

Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm overlooking something, and we are in fact due a pick. But based on the numbers above as far as I can tell we ain't getting a thing. :idunno:
 

jarabie

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What about Torrence, Franklin, and Rodgers?
 

SuperQuincy

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I jut saw the 4th rounder used today for the first time in a mock draft on here. I guess we just had to move onto the next wishful thinking option after the 2nd rounder was taken off the table.

We are not in line for any pick this year. Our additions outweighed our losses, as you have pointed out above, in a well written breakdown.

Just another forum pipe dream because it more fun to do mocks with extra picks. In other words, its par for the course on this site this time of year.
 
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Ross

Ross

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I jut saw the 4th rounder used today for the first time in a mock draft on here. I guess we just had to move onto the next wishful thinking option after the 2nd rounder was taken off the table.

We are not in line for any pick this year. Our additions outweighed our losses, as you have pointed out above, in a well written breakdown.

Just another forum pipe dream because it more fun to do mocks with extra picks. In other words, its par for the course on this site this time of year.

My sentiments exactly dude.

I've seen in it a bunch of mocks, I even seen a bleacher report mock with it included.

I like taking part in draft discussions but when people keep talking abut this comp pick it gets a bit tedious.
 

Saint_Ward

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They where never offered contracts therefore not deemed as a loss.

We let them walk.

Is there a time frame where they have to be offered a contract to be considered a loss? Because Franklin did play this year.
 

DaveXA

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I have a question, when do we find out exactly what picks we may or may not get. Isn't the draft order already determined? Also, because we lost our second rounder, does that mean there are 31 picks in that round? Or does someone get two picks? I'm not sure how it all works, but I thought I'd put it out there for someone who might know.
 
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People assume that we will get a comp pick for Nicks. They don't know that the contract is only a third of the formula that the NFL uses to determine comp picks. The other two thirds are games played and post-season awards. Nicks got hurt and received no post-season awards. So guess what we get? Zilch. Nada. Nothing.
 

JimmyB1775

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Somebody explain this better please. How is the round determined and what determines a "replacement". We lost Nicks, got Grubbs. Ok. There isn't a pick there? What about Porter? I'm lost. I pay attention to what I thought was everything. This is news to me.
 

jarabie

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I have a question, when do we find out exactly what picks we may or may not get. Isn't the draft order already determined? Also, because we lost our second rounder, does that mean there are 31 picks in that round? Or does someone get two picks? I'm not sure how it all works, but I thought I'd put it out there for someone who might know.

I believe the picks are announced at the owners meeting. There will be only thirty picks in the second round this year. We lost ours, and the Browns lost there's from the supp. draft last year.
 

DaveXA

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I have a question, when do we find out exactly what picks we may or may not get. Isn't the draft order already determined? Also, because we lost our second rounder, does that mean there are 31 picks in that round? Or does someone get two picks? I'm not sure how it all works, but I thought I'd put it out there for someone who might know.

I believe the picks are announced at the owners meeting. There will be only thirty picks in the second round this year. We lost ours, and the Browns lost there's from the supp. draft last year.

If the owners are getting together before the draft, you have to think Benson will make some attempt at getting his pick back. To be a fly on the wall when that happens.
 

jarabie

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March 17-20. Should be some interesting conversations for sure!
 

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Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm overlooking something, and we are in fact due a pick. But based on the numbers above as far as I can tell we ain't getting a thing. :idunno:

Thanks for clearing that up Ross. I've seen that assumed extra 4th round pick on a number of occasions and have asked what these assumptions are based on. I hadn't done any real research on it but based on memory it didn't seem likely we'd be getting a high value compensatory pick. And based on what you've posted, that's pretty much very likely (and unfortunately) going to be the case.
 

insidejob

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Somebody explain this better please. How is the round determined and what determines a "replacement". We lost Nicks, got Grubbs. Ok. There isn't a pick there? What about Porter? I'm lost. I pay attention to what I thought was everything. This is news to me.

This guy explains it well, and has a good history of projecting the comp picks.

For the eighth consecutive year and ninth overall, I’ve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks that the NFL will award. In my past seven projections, I’ve averaged 23.9 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.1 more. Last year, I got 25 correct and was off by one round on four more. With this year’s projections, I’m hoping to get a combined score of at least 30, although it’s possible that more than the usual number of them could be off by one round because so many projected compensatory picks fell near the cutoff points between rounds.

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract values used in the equation seemingly do not include things such as workout bonuses, incentives and conditional bonuses. (Also, keep in mind that the contract figures reported in the media often are incorrect.) And the playing time used in the equation seemingly is the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps played.

A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this – for every player acquired, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value would bring a third-round comp pick and another qualifying player whose value would bring a sixth-round comp pick but signs a qualifying player whose value would be in the range of a third-round pick. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value was equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents. That type of comp pick comes at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been 13 of these “net value” type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents added. In all 13 cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value. This year, I’m projecting that Detroit and Arizona will receive a net-value comp picks. Detroit lost three qualifying players (Damien Woody, Boss Bailey and T.J. Duckett) and signed three qualifying players (Brian Kelly, Michael Gaines and Chuck Darby). Arizona lost three (Calvin Pace, Bryant Johnson and Keydrick Vincent) and signed three (Travis LaBoy, Clark Haggans and Bryan Robinson). The combined values of the players Detroit and Arizona lost each exceeded 50 percent more than the combined values of the players they signed. That would be the smallest difference in value of any net-value comp in the past six years, but I’m projecting that it will be enough for both teams.

AdamJT13: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory NFL Draft Picks

Looks like he does it for espn now or something because if you search his name, it comes up linked to their stuff.
 

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They where never offered contracts therefore not deemed as a loss.

We let them walk.

still deemed a loss as long as they sign with another team within the qualifying window (i think approximately the start of camp).
 

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