Think the Saints are better than their record... (1 Viewer)

[Cincy Saint]

So do the latest advanced analytics. Tonight, Football Outsiders released their Week 11 ratings.

In their weighted team ratings, the Saints moved up to #12 overall and 7th best in the NFC. But even stronger -- in their estimated wins (explained below) -- the Saints project to have 6.5 wins.

According to the FO analysis, the Saints have played the fifth toughest schedule to date but will only face the 18th toughest schedule from here on out.

If this team could play a tiny better better in key moments (see Raiders and Broncos games), they could be a contender.

ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.

 

[Eman5805]

A young team, with a young talented defense that is getting reps, experience and a good coaching staff.

We can make a run. But we MUST figure out our kicking problem.

I hope this new cat can get some lift on Lutz's kicks. I know it's dodgy to change up a motion mid-season. But it's necessary.

 

[honeybadger]

If kicking wasn't an issue we would be 8-2.

Oakland game would be a win. Two field goals missed for 6 points.

Giants game would be a win. Seven point swing off of blocked field goal.

Denver would be a win. Two point swing off of blocked PAT.

Carolina would be a win. Seven point swing off off blocked PAT.

 

[ndcc]

All we need to do is remember that the Saints defeated a very, VERY good Seahawks team.

I believe we're about to make a run.

WhoDat!

 

[Krodwhodat]

And we lost.
20 points given up on fumble, interception, blocked FG and kick off fumble out of bounds on the 2 yard line.

Lose first half 20-3 win the second half 17-3. Team is top 5 in league if stops beating themselves.


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[Gump]

Turnovers are killing us!

 

[JackT.]

while in reality you are what your record is but in this case that is not true. Yeah, we are 4-6 but we are better than that. we just can't seem to put together a whole game of complimentary football.

 

[oldJC.SAINTS]

Turnovers are killing us!

and we don't turn it over that much !

 

[Saints 318]

at least we aren't getting blown out

 

[Gump]

and we don't turn it over that much !

But when we do, it is at the most in opportune times.


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[gtaz21]

You are what your record says you are.

Were the Saints better than 7-9 last year?

Were they better than 7-9 the year before?

We're on course for the same record this year.

 

[Saint Kamara]

I look at it this way

We had one game we were in control of and one game we were not very competitive

The other 8 games we could easily have won or easily lost

So that tells me we are a 5-5 team, no better no worse

 

[Saint Kamara]

while in reality you are what your record is but in this case that is not true. Yeah, we are 4-6 but we are better than that. we just can't seem to put together a whole game of complimentary football.

but that is because we are not as good as you think we are, otherwise we would have played better and won games we ended up losing

 

[Saint Kamara]

If kicking wasn't an issue we would be 8-2.

Oakland game would be a win. Two field goals missed for 6 points.

Giants game would be a win. Seven point swing off of blocked field goal.

Denver would be a win. Two point swing off of blocked PAT.

Carolina would be a win. Seven point swing off off blocked PAT.

those are 10 point swings, not 7

you are correct that if the saints had a legit special teams coach, we would be markedly better in the W-L column, but that is Sean's good buddy

 

[St. Pike]

You are what your record says you are.
Were the Saints better than 7-9 last year?
Were they better than 7-9 the year before?
We're on course for the same record this year.

I look at it this way
We had one game we were in control of and one game we were not very competitive
The other 8 games we could easily have won or easily lost
So that tells me we are a 5-5 team, no better no worse

This tells me that record is meaningless when it comes to analyzing the quality of a team. I believe Carolina can say the same thing we are saying. They lost a number of games by less than a score. Records may mean something about the quality of team in the past, but now, it is just another statistic. of course, an important one, but I would say it doesn't do a good job defining who you are at all.

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