Todd McShay the most accurate mock drafter over the last 3 years (1 Viewer)

[bornnraisedwhodat]

For me its not about getting things "right or wrong"

Everyone brings their own personal POV. These are humans evaluationg humans, so its impossible to be correct all the time. I just enjoy the process. You listen to different people you get different perspectives on things.

 

[CaliSaint4Life]

Cosell is one of my favorite guys, simply because of how honest he is. He uses zero influence outside of his own when grading players. Rather he's right or wrong, he always provides very detailed explanations on how he got to his conclusion and 100% of the time, it makes sense.

 

[St. Widge]

The myth of players "rising and falling" in the final days as the draft nears is just that, a myth. The truth is, all that's happening is that analysts' reports and rankings are becoming more and more accurate based on what's being revealed to them by scouts and team sources.

You better believe Mayock isn't just suddenly putting Hayden as his #1 CB because of something he all of a sudden saw on film. No, he's suddenly risen that high because the information he has in his ear from scouts and his team sources is becoming a more and more clear picture and teams' final findings are being revealed to him; the once blurry polaroid negative has finally transformed into a fully developed photograph, and now it's being shared with us.

Considering that we know that Payton said yesterday, I think, that the team scouts were just coming in to give their individual evaluations on players and that they will then start to rank players, I think it's fair to say that lots of players rise and fall for individual teams right up to the draft. It's an ongoing process of evaluation for teams and it's not until close to the draft that they gather all of the information and rank players on their board. Now, that rising and falling is very different from what goes on in mock draft and media world, but I'm sure it is happening behind the scenes.

 

[SweetT]

Mcshay doesn't break news. You may be thinking of Adam Schefter

That's Jason LaConfora.

 

[St. Widge]

Well, I think the point of that website is to call out pundits who predict stuff and see how well they actually do. i.e. who's full of it and who's not.

The OP is just making the point that maybe McShay gets too much hate, since he's just as good or better at the others at coming up with a Mock Draft. However, it still isn't a measure of his actual analysis and ability to speak to the general audience.

Sure, but I think the overall point is that being good at guessing who teams pick is not the same thing as being good at analyzing players, figuring out who will actually be good and how they will fit with certain teams.

FWIW, I think Kiper gets far too much crap. First, the guy practically invented the draftnick profession and is a big reason why the NFL Draft is so popular today. Second, Kiper for years was a guy who just told you how he rated players in terms of who were the best players available that year and when each team drafted. He had a big board of the top 20, but it was never intended as a "mock draft" saying where players would go. Teams pick for need at times so they may not be picking the BPA. But, people criticized Kiper because his board did not match the draft order.

At any rate, I'd rather listen to a guy that evaluates players properly than a guy who just happens to be good at guessing where a guy will be drafted. And, different guys are good at different things. For instance, I think that Mike Detillier is very good at analyzing college talent, but I don't think he is as good at figuring out how they will play for or fit with specific teams. Where as there are guys that are very good at knowing what fits a team's scheme but not so well versed on college players.

And, in the end, it's all entertainment and it's not a science. Guys who get paid to analyze players for NFL teams miss all the time.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Im no draft expert, but this explanation for late "rising and falling" intuitively seems to make a lot of sense. Other factors may be at work but my guess is that this is the main one.

By the way, I loved the slowly developing Polaroid print metaphor, but can't help but wonder whether it was lost on 95% of those here under 50.

Lol im 26 and i got it???

Anyhow I tend to agree. Mayock even said it on his conference call last night. Sure some guys rise and fall but generally they don't move as muc as the media makes it appear. They make a spectacle of it.

Ziggie Ansah is a prime example of a true riser.


Now take a look@ Mingo. He was initially top 5....then top 10...then u saw ways where he would possibly fall to us@ 15. When in reality Mingo probably doesn't get past the Jets or the Bills.

His initial ranking was about right but as the media began to pick him apart he began to fall....in some eyes. Truth is his potential is too ideal to pass up.

 

[bornnraisedwhodat]

Cosell is one of my favorite guys, simply because of how honest he is. He uses zero influence outside of his own when grading players. Rather he's right or wrong, he always provides very detailed explanations on how he got to his conclusion and 100% of the time, it makes sense.

Agreed.

Sent from phone via Tapatalk

 

[St. Geezy]

Considering that we know that Payton said yesterday, I think, that the team scouts were just coming in to give their individual evaluations on players and that they will then start to rank players, I think it's fair to say that lots of players rise and fall for individual teams right up to the draft. It's an ongoing process of evaluation for teams and it's not until close to the draft that they gather all of the information and rank players on their board. Now, that rising and falling is very different from what goes on in mock draft and media world, but I'm sure it is happening behind the scenes.

I think that certainly plays a part of it also. But generally, at this stage, the rising and falling isn't as dramatic as the media makes it out to be.

 

[St. Geezy]

I think another factor at play with mock drafts, both in the media and on message boards like ours, is that they're all done strictly from a needs standpoint, when in reality, many teams draft BPA, especially after round 1. It's very hard to figure out which players teams have rated extremely high and absolutely would not pass on. Heck, the Saints very well could draft a RB in the middle rounds next week, but you wouldn't see a single RB on any Saints mock drafts.

 

[SaintStephen]

So these guys are experts, yet the average prediction of "the best" is 8 spots off out of 32 picks? That is just a horrible rate! Lame...That's why I rarely listen to predictions and focus on the players themselves. I come here to get the info I care about regarding the NFL...

 

[geauxboy]

Mcshay doesn't break news. You may be thinking of Adam Schefter

That was my point.

 

[St. Geezy]

So these guys are experts, yet the average prediction of "the best" is 8 spots off out of 32 picks? That is just a horrible rate! Lame...That's why I rarely listen to predictions and focus on the players themselves. I come here to get the info I care about regarding the NFL...

I think anybody that truly understands the draft and pays close attention to it looks at mocks strictly to see the range of areas players are projected to go. Outside of the top 2 or 3 picks, it's virtually impossible to be accurate. These guys can't predict trades or teams that have "player x" graded so high that they won't pass on him no matter what, etc. Also, what one expert views as a team need, may not truly be a team need in their eyes, and vice versa.

For instance, it seems to be popular opinion in the media that the Saints have a major need at OLB. What if the Saints feel they've adequately addressed that need already or what if they like the guys they already have compared to the talent available in the draft? What if the team feels it has a huge void at WR? There is no way to predict that.

 

[bornnraisedwhodat]

As long as you have valid reasons behind your evaluations, I gotta respect your opinions. Dont give me dumb stuff like "this guy is a winner!" or sensationalizing. Just evaluate the player, what can he do? What cant he do? What are his positive attributes? How does that translate to the NFL?

As far as mock drafting, its kinda pointless, especially in the beginning of the process.

Damontre Moore was considered a top 5 pick by online draftniks. No he didnt "fall" from the top 5, but once the process begain, and coaches and scouts started picking him apart, and analysts started picking him apart, you see that he is actually more of a late 1st early 2nd round type of player. Same for Werner.

Ziggy is one of the few guys you can say is a "riser" because he had such limited tape. Mayock said at the beginning of the season, he was literally on no body's preliminary draft board. You couldnt ask for a better pre-draft process than Ziggy.

 

[St. Widge]

I think that certainly plays a part of it also. But generally, at this stage, the rising and falling isn't as dramatic as the media makes it out to be.

Not for the teams. The teams have probably looked at every player they are going to look at and have an idea of what they think of them. But, based on Payton's comments, I suspect most of them don't even start to put their board together until now. Prior to this it was all information gathering. Now come the job of compiling that information and stacking the board. So, to the extent that there was no board until now, you are right, guys don't rise and fall much. But, now is probably the first time that most NFL teams have an order in the first place.

Anyway, I think you are right that rising and falling is more of media phenomenon, and not something that really happens on a team's board which is only being put together now. And, a lot of what the media reports as rising and falling is either off hand comments from team officials or intentional smoke screens designed to get other teams to move up or down and let that team get the player they want.

 

[St. Geezy]

Not for the teams. The teams have probably looked at every player they are going to look at and have an idea of what they think of them. But, based on Payton's comments, I suspect most of them don't even start to put their board together until now. Prior to this it was all information gathering. Now come the job of compiling that information and stacking the board. So, to the extent that there was no board until now, you are right, guys don't rise and fall much. But, now is probably the first time that most NFL teams have an order in the first place.

Anyway, I think you are right that rising and falling is more of media phenomenon, and not something that really happens on a team's board which is only being put together now. And, a lot of what the media reports as rising and falling is either off hand comments from team officials or intentional smoke screens designed to get other teams to move up or down and let that team get the player they want.

I'd like to hear the audio of this. I think that may have just been coach speak; a lot of what coaches say, especially Payton, is general, dumbed down answers just to placate the media. There is no way I believe that teams are "just starting" to do their boards now. They may be finalizing some things, but there is no way that they wait until the week of the draft to start this process. They spend weeks and weeks going through draft scenarios and what if scenarios.