Tomorrow could be a historic day......and not the good kind (1 Viewer)

There is always a buying opportunity somewhere.

This is why diversification is a good idea.

Contrary to what the talking (or screaming) heads in the media would have you believe, this isn't the first time we've been in a recession. Markets are cyclical, after all.
 
exactly jp they are cyclical. It happened in 1992 and it will happen again after this is all over, look If anything I think that the time has come for a Democrat to take the President's office and see what they can do for a change. I am still a Republican mind you but I think the time has come for a moderate Democrat to take charge and sow the weeds if they can
 
bclemms, I think the trend of a good economy Bush inherited in 2000 from Clinton is over. We are not in a bull market anymore. these things happen sometimes. their were financial hard times in Carter and Reagan administrations if you remember, probably Reagan had it worse in the latter part of his tenure in 87 and 88. The thing to remember though about the stock market is that it goes in cycles, you have a boom period and then you have a somewhat bust period, how you handle the bust period is a testament to whether or not your company survives. I am not that big of a Bush supporter as I used to be, but I don't think you can blame this possible recession entirely on him. he is partly to blame I think but the volatile nature of the stock market makes it very unpredictable. You had a good period for 20-30 years in the 50's, 60's and early 70's, then a bad period in the 70's and early 80's and then a boom period in the 90's with Clinton and the Internet. these things happen on a cyclical period. I remember thinking in 2001 after 9/11 that the economy was ruined but it wasn't, it survived then and it will survive this possible problem or problems


Bush and his sheople were the only ones that didn't see this coming. The depth of this could have been prevented and there really isn't much argument to this. With the amount of data and information at the Feds disposal there is no excuse. I don't blame just Bush, all the republicrats have a part in this.

As for my business, I am as prepared as possible considering the scenario.

JC, I never said this was the first or last but odds are pretty high that tomorrow will rank up there with Black Monday and Black Tuesday.
 
bclemms you are still not answering part of my question about markets being cyclical. I agree with you though about bush and his inability to control this. I mean markets do run in cycles, it ran that way in the 80's with Reagan and to a lesser extent a decade earlier with Carter though that in his case it may have not been totally his fault.

You cannot always control what the markets will do, clemms. we live in a free market society
 
The WSJ says the rebate plan won't work, and there are data proving that hypothesis in the wake of previous such efforts. Of course, this is precisely what will be done.
 
Looks like an average of -5-7% across the international board. That's a big day full of opportunities. People panic, others make money. Those holding short positions in everything will make money tomorrow. Those finding an artificial bottom for now will do well. No big deal. We're a bit off of historic highs and can afford a substantial correction. :shrug:

TPS
 
JC, I never said this was the first or last but odds are pretty high that tomorrow will rank up there with Black Monday and Black Tuesday.

There are safeguards to help prevent another Black Monday (if we're talking about a drop as a percentage of the Dow) but, if so, that won't be all bad. A lot of what went down in 1987 was the result of extreme overreactions by people. The people that bought in at that time made out like bandits.

I was 13 at the time so I missed that party. If some of these stocks get rocked too hard, I'll be able to make up for it this time around.

I'm not retiring anytime soon so I have the luxury of looking at this from a long term perspective.
 
bclemms you are still not answering part of my question about markets being cyclical. I agree with you though about bush and his inability to control this. I mean markets do run in cycles, it ran that way in the 80's with Reagan and to a lesser extent a decade earlier with Carter though that in his case it may have not been totally his fault.

You cannot always control what the markets will do, clemms. we live in a free market society

Sorry Saintman, I didn't realize you asked a question since there wasn't a question mark in your post. If you are asking if the market runs in cycles then the answer is an obvious yes.

We do not live in a free market economy. We have a Keynesian economy which is very different.
 
Thank you Steve. You said it a lot better then I could have quite honestly. Look we have had some pretty high gains in the Dow the past couple of years, for God's sakes people the Dow was at 14,500 a few years ago, 14,000 thats damn hard to do, it does not last forever. Thats the nature of the beast, the money beast that is. My mom worked as a banker for many years and she nows these things pretty well.
 
>>Thank you Steve. You said it a lot better then I could have quite honestly. Look we have had some pretty high gains in the Dow the past couple of years, for God's sakes people the Dow was at 14,500 a few years ago, 14,000 thats damn hard to do, it does not last forever. Thats the nature of the beast, the money beast that is. My mom worked as a banker for many years and she nows these things pretty well.

No problem Saintsman. I'm not meaning to downplay the tens of billions of dollars of paper losses tomorrow. But it is a reminder to the world that they still have a stake in how things go in the United States. The problem that I see is that we're running out of bandaid solutions. Eventually we're going to be so far up in debt that there isn't anything we can do about it. And with the current administration allowing the tanking of the dollar, things will get trickier. But as long as you don't have to cash out tomorrow or the next day, you should be okay. One danger to a free falling DJI/Nasdaq in a low dollar environment is that international players who are on the sidelines can swoop down and grab big positions in American corporations. :shrug:

TPS
 
One danger to a free falling DJI/Nasdaq in a low dollar environment is that international players who are on the sidelines can swoop down and grab big positions in American corporations. :shrug:

TPS


This has already started happening through sovereign funds. A lot of Arab and Asian investors have bought up a large portion of the banking sectors.

As for the 5% correction tomorrow, if that happens that the Dow will be down close to 3k points in 90 days. Which is close to 25%. 5% might be optimistic since the Nikkei is down 12% since the dow closed on Friday.
 
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This happened just a minute ago.

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- India's Sensitive Index tumbled 11.5% within the first two minutes of trading on Tuesday, forcing a trade halt for an hour. The index stumbled 2,029.05 points to 15,576.30, after slumping 7.4% in the previous session. "It doesn't look good at all. We expected it to fall, but nobody expected this kind of correction," said Sharmila Joshi, a trader with Prabhudas Lilladher in Mumbai.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...={C56A5E64-A08F-4BCE-9B91-70C04CEBA35A}&dist=
 
As for the 5% correction tomorrow, if that happens that the Dow will be down close to 3k points in 90 days. Which is close to 25%. 5% might be optimistic since the Nikkei is down 12% since the dow closed on Friday.

My math says that, if the Dow drops 5% tomorrow, that will put it 19% off of it's historical high.

It sucks for day traders and market timers but we've had shocks like that before...most recently in the month after 9-11.

A lot of our companies have good fundamentals so if the price drops too much, it's a steal. It's not like our businesses have been selling pet rocks and the world is waking up to that fact. Investors are just skittish because of the credit enviornment. However, a lot of our companies have used the boom to make capital improvements and stockpile cash so any major underlying weaknesses in a lot of sectors (and that includes banking) exist only in people's imaginations.

A lot of the screaming is coming from Wall Street because a lot of these hedge funds make their money by jumping in and out of stocks for a quick flip and a correction hurts their ability to do that. Prudent long term investors have been waiting for this correction for two years (at least!). Finally stocks will be priced closer to reality (and for a little while, even cheaper. Yay!).
 

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